Niche

Casual + Wargame

Games tagged both Casual and Wargame: 72 indie paid launches, 1 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,758 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 2 Nov 2026. How it is measured.

Price Under $5

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 230 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2021 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,758 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

Under $5

Showing Casual + Wargame priced under $5.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?Under $5

Casual + Wargame is too small to compare with Casual and is too small to compare with Wargame: 1 of its 57 launches earned $100k+ priced under $5, against 0.5 in 100 for Casual and 1 of 179 launches for Wargame.

Small sample: 57 launches, 1 hits.

TIEA tie

Tag onemood tagCasual

0.5in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds1 in 221

Typical earnings$113

Launches6,405 / 29 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairCasual + Wargame

1 of 57launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds1 of 57 launches

$1k+11 in 100

$10k+2 of 57 launches

Launches57 / 1 hits

Expected0.4 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twoWargame

1 of 179launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds1 of 179 launches

Typical earnings$81

Launches179 / 1 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches under $5: 0.4 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 230), typical $162, from 14,050 launches.each block is 0.5 in 100 all indie at under $5Casual is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices72 in pair Under $557 in pair $5 to $1013 in pair$10 to $202: too few$20 to $40no launches

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 57 games tagged both Casual and Wargame priced under $5. 1 of 57 of them earned $100k+, against 0.4 in 100 for Casual-only games and 0 of 122 for Wargame-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Casual alone and is too small to compare with Wargame alone.

Both: 57 games priced under $5; 1 of 57 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 11 in 100 · $10k+ 2 of 57 launches · $100k+ 1 of 57 launches.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 57 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Minimalist Tower Defenseleads this pair42.4%

PairMinimalist Tower Defense42.4%

CasualHouse Flipper 23.9%

WargameMaster of Command12.9%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 1 of 3, 2 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: too few to tell. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Casual + Wargame

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Minimalist Tower Defense earned 42.4% of the estimated first-year money of the 72 Casual + Wargame launches.
Casual is led by House Flipper 2, with 3.9% of its money.
Wargame is led by Master of Command, with 12.9% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Casual + Wargame holds in Without the breakout; too few to tell in West-facing view and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Casual + Wargame through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view64 of 72 launches	Without the breakout71 of 72 launches	Last 18 months19 of 72 launches
Launches counted	721 hits	641 hits	710 hits	190 hits
Earned $100k+	1 of 72too few for a rate	1 of 64too few for a rate	0 of 71too few for a rate	0 of 19too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+	3 of 72 launchescleared $10k; $1k+ 17 in 100	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	+12.5%0.2 more in 100; too few to tell	-100.0%1.4 fewer in 100	-100.0%1.4 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Too few to tell	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Casual and Wargame, 12 to 36 months old: 72 launches.

Launches counted: 721 hits
Earned $100k+: 1 of 72too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: 3 of 72 launchescleared $10k; $1k+ 17 in 100
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewToo few to tell

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 8 of 72 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 641 hits
Earned $100k+: 1 of 64too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: +12.5%0.2 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Minimalist Tower Defense (42.4% of the money): 71 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 710 hits
Earned $100k+: 0 of 71too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -100.0%1.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 19 of 72.

Launches counted: 190 hits
Earned $100k+: 0 of 19too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -100.0%1.4 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Casual and Wargame, 12 to 36 months old: 72 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 8 of 72 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Minimalist Tower Defense (42.4% of the money): 71 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 19 of 72.

Casual is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Casual through every lens, all prices
Casual	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view9,378 of 9,921 launches	Without the breakout9,920 of 9,921 launches	Last 18 months2,915 of 9,921 launches
Launches counted	9,921305 hits	9,378287 hits	9,920304 hits	2,915127 hits
Earned $100k+	3.1 in 1001 in 33	3.1 in 1001 in 33	3.1 in 1001 in 33	4.4 in 1001 in 23
Typical first-year earnings	$252top tenth $10,057+	$268	$252	$272
Chance against standard	the base	-0.5%no change	-0.3%no change	+41.7%1.3 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+6.3%$16 more	0.0%no change	+7.9%$20 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,921 launches.

Launches counted: 9,921305 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings: $252top tenth $10,057+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 543 of 9,921 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 9,378287 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings: $268
Chance against standard: -0.5%no change
Typical against standard: +6.3%$16 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.9% of the money): 9,920 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 9,920304 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings: $252
Chance against standard: -0.3%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,915 of 9,921.

Launches counted: 2,915127 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.4 in 1001 in 23
Typical first-year earnings: $272
Chance against standard: +41.7%1.3 more in 100
Typical against standard: +7.9%$20 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,921 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 543 of 9,921 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.9% of the money): 9,920 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,915 of 9,921.

Wargame holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Wargame through every lens, all prices
Wargame	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view397 of 430 launches	Without the breakout429 of 430 launches	Last 18 months109 of 430 launches
Launches counted	43032 hits	39730 hits	42931 hits	1095 hits
Earned $100k+	7.4 in 1001 in 13	7.6 in 1001 in 13	7.2 in 1001 in 14	4.6 in 1001 in 22
Typical first-year earnings	$616top tenth $62,438+	$697	$589	$643
Chance against standard	the base	+1.5%0.1 more in 100	-2.9%0.2 fewer in 100	-38.4%2.9 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+13.1%$81 more	-4.4%$27 less	+4.4%$27 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Wargame, 12 to 36 months old: 430 launches.

Launches counted: 43032 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.4 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $616top tenth $62,438+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 33 of 430 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 39730 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.6 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $697
Chance against standard: +1.5%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard: +13.1%$81 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Master of Command (12.9% of the money): 429 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 42931 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.2 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $589
Chance against standard: -2.9%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -4.4%$27 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 109 of 430.

Launches counted: 1095 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.6 in 1001 in 22
Typical first-year earnings: $643
Chance against standard: -38.4%2.9 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +4.4%$27 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Wargame, 12 to 36 months old: 430 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 33 of 430 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Master of Command (12.9% of the money): 429 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 109 of 430.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Casual + Wargame moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.