Niche

Casual + Wholesome

Games tagged both Casual and Wholesome: 219 indie paid launches, 18 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,758 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 2 Nov 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 230 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2021 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,758 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing Casual + Wholesome priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats Casual and is about level with Wholesome; priced $10 to $20 it is too small to compare with Casual and is too small to compare with Wholesome.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Casual + Wholesome is too small to compare with Casual and is too small to compare with Wholesome: 8 of its 22 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 13.8 in 100 for Casual and 29.6 in 100 for Wholesome.

Small sample: 22 launches, 8 hits.

TIETied

Tag onemood tagCasual

13.8in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds13.8 in 100

Typical earnings$4,254

Launches1,006 / 139 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairCasual + Wholesome

8 of 22launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds8 of 22 launches

$1k+19 of 22 launches

$10k+16 of 22 launches

Launches22 / 8 hits

Expected20.5 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twoWholesome

29.6in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds29.6 in 100

$1k+93 in 100

$10k+76 in 100

Launches54 / 16 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.5 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $11,233, from 4,337 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Casual is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices219 in pair Under $5170 in pair $5 to $1025 in pair $10 to $2022 in pair$20 to $402: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 22 games tagged both Casual and Wholesome priced $10 to $20. 8 of 22 of them earned $100k+, against 13.3 in 100 for Casual-only games and 25.0 in 100 for Wholesome-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Casual alone and is too small to compare with Wholesome alone.

Both: 22 games priced $10 to $20; 8 of 22 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 19 of 22 launches · $10k+ 16 of 22 launches · $100k+ 8 of 22 launches.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 22 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Is This Seat Taken?leads this pair21.9%

PairIs This Seat Taken?21.9%

CasualHouse Flipper 23.9%

WholesomeLittle Kitty, Big City27.5%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Casual + Wholesome

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Is This Seat Taken? earned 21.9% of the estimated first-year money of the 219 Casual + Wholesome launches.
Casual is led by House Flipper 2, with 3.9% of its money.
Wholesome is led by Little Kitty, Big City, with 27.5% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Casual + Wholesome is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Casual + Wholesome through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view218 of 219 launches	Without the breakout218 of 219 launches	Last 18 months71 of 219 launches
Launches counted	21918 hits	21818 hits	21817 hits	719 hits
Earned $100k+	8.2 in 1001 in 12	8.3 in 1001 in 12	7.8 in 1001 in 13	12.7 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$1,196top tenth $51,873+	$1,196	$1,196	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	+0.5%no change	-5.1%0.4 fewer in 100	+54.2%4.5 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	0.0%no change	0.0%no change	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Casual and Wholesome, 12 to 36 months old: 219 launches.

Launches counted: 21918 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.2 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $1,196top tenth $51,873+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 1 of 219 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 21818 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.3 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $1,196
Chance against standard: +0.5%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Is This Seat Taken? (21.9% of the money): 218 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 21817 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.8 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $1,196
Chance against standard: -5.1%0.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 71 of 219.

Launches counted: 719 hits
Earned $100k+: 12.7 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: +54.2%4.5 more in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Casual and Wholesome, 12 to 36 months old: 219 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 1 of 219 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Is This Seat Taken? (21.9% of the money): 218 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 71 of 219.

Casual is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Casual through every lens, all prices
Casual	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view9,378 of 9,921 launches	Without the breakout9,920 of 9,921 launches	Last 18 months2,915 of 9,921 launches
Launches counted	9,921305 hits	9,378287 hits	9,920304 hits	2,915127 hits
Earned $100k+	3.1 in 1001 in 33	3.1 in 1001 in 33	3.1 in 1001 in 33	4.4 in 1001 in 23
Typical first-year earnings	$252top tenth $10,057+	$268	$252	$272
Chance against standard	the base	-0.5%no change	-0.3%no change	+41.7%1.3 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+6.3%$16 more	0.0%no change	+7.9%$20 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,921 launches.

Launches counted: 9,921305 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings: $252top tenth $10,057+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 543 of 9,921 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 9,378287 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings: $268
Chance against standard: -0.5%no change
Typical against standard: +6.3%$16 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.9% of the money): 9,920 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 9,920304 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings: $252
Chance against standard: -0.3%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,915 of 9,921.

Launches counted: 2,915127 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.4 in 1001 in 23
Typical first-year earnings: $272
Chance against standard: +41.7%1.3 more in 100
Typical against standard: +7.9%$20 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,921 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 543 of 9,921 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.9% of the money): 9,920 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,915 of 9,921.

Wholesome holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Wholesome through every lens, all prices
Wholesome	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view305 of 307 launches	Without the breakout306 of 307 launches	Last 18 months97 of 307 launches
Launches counted	30734 hits	30534 hits	30633 hits	9713 hits
Earned $100k+	11.1 in 100	11.1 in 100	10.8 in 100	13.4 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$1,631top tenth $112,615+	$1,655	$1,631	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	+0.7%0.1 more in 100	-2.6%0.3 fewer in 100	+21.0%2.3 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+1.5%$24 more	0.0%no change	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Wholesome, 12 to 36 months old: 307 launches.

Launches counted: 30734 hits
Earned $100k+: 11.1 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,631top tenth $112,615+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 2 of 307 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 30534 hits
Earned $100k+: 11.1 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,655
Chance against standard: +0.7%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard: +1.5%$24 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Little Kitty, Big City (27.5% of the money): 306 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 30633 hits
Earned $100k+: 10.8 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,631
Chance against standard: -2.6%0.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 97 of 307.

Launches counted: 9713 hits
Earned $100k+: 13.4 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: +21.0%2.3 more in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Wholesome, 12 to 36 months old: 307 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 2 of 307 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Little Kitty, Big City (27.5% of the money): 306 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 97 of 307.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Casual + Wholesome moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.