Niche

Choices Matter + Exploration

Games tagged both Choices Matter and Exploration: 201 indie paid launches, 21 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about".
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 29,637 indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, data of 1 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 16 hit $100k+Under $51 in 200 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 26 hit $100k+$10 to $2019 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4042 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, 29,637 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 100+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 100+ launches Reset

Showing Choices Matter + Exploration priced $10 to $20, hiding samples under 100 launches. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats both its tags; priced $10 to $20 it has too few launches to read.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

46 launches, under your minimum sample of 100.

Pick another price band, or lower the minimum sample.

1STTied winner

Tag onemood tagChoices Matter

20.1in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds20.1 in 100

Typical earnings$13,111

Launches284 / 57 hits

Pairno reading

--No reading

This pairChoices Matter + Exploration

--too few
to read

Odds--

Typical earnings--

Launches46

46 launches, under your minimum sample of 100.

1STTied winner

Tag twomood tagExploration

20.1in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds20.1 in 100

Typical earnings$11,535

Launches988 / 199 hits

Pairno reading

All indie launches $10 to $20: 18.6 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $9,226, from 4,810 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Choices Matter is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices201 in pair Under $589 in pair $5 to $1058 in pair $10 to $2046 in pair$20 to $408: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 46 games tagged both Choices Matter and Exploration priced $10 to $20. 19.6 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 20.2 for Choices Matter-only games and 20.2 for Exploration-only games, so games with both tags did worse than games with either tag alone.

Both: 46 games priced $10 to $20; 19.6 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $16,088.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 46 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Drova - Forsaken Kinleads this pair30.8%

PairDrova - Forsaken Kin30.8%

Choices MatterLegend of Mortal10.7%

ExplorationHollow Knight: Silksong20.7%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Choices Matter + Exploration

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Drova - Forsaken Kin earned 30.8% of the estimated first-year money of the 201 Choices Matter + Exploration launches.
Choices Matter is led by Legend of Mortal, with 10.7% of its money.
Exploration is led by Hollow Knight: Silksong, with 20.7% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Choices Matter + Exploration is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.

Choices Matter + Exploration through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view192 of 201 launches	Without the breakout200 of 201 launches	Last 18 months117 of 201 launches
Launches counted	20121 hits	19219 hits	20020 hits	1177 hits
Earned $100k+	10.4 in 100	9.9 in 1001 in 10	10.0 in 100	6.0 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings	$1,092top tenth $111,964+	$1,112	$1,092	$607
Chance against standard	the yardstick	-4.8%0.5 fewer in 100	-3.8%0.4 fewer in 100	-42.3%4.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the yardstick	+1.8%$20 more	0.0%no change	-44.4%$485 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Choices Matter and Exploration, 6 to 30 months old: 201 launches.

Launches counted: 20121 hits
Earned $100k+: 10.4 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,092top tenth $111,964+
Chance against standard: the yardstick
Typical against standard: the yardstick

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 9 of 201 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 19219 hits
Earned $100k+: 9.9 in 1001 in 10
Typical first-year earnings: $1,112
Chance against standard: -4.8%0.5 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +1.8%$20 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Drova - Forsaken Kin (30.8% of the money): 200 launches left.

Launches counted: 20020 hits
Earned $100k+: 10.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,092
Chance against standard: -3.8%0.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 117 of 201.

Launches counted: 1177 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.0 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $607
Chance against standard: -42.3%4.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -44.4%$485 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Choices Matter and Exploration, 6 to 30 months old: 201 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 9 of 201 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Drova - Forsaken Kin (30.8% of the money): 200 launches left.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 117 of 201.

Choices Matter is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.

Choices Matter through every lens, all prices
Choices Matter	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,292 of 1,354 launches	Without the breakout1,353 of 1,354 launches	Last 18 months780 of 1,354 launches
Launches counted	1,354106 hits	1,29294 hits	1,353105 hits	78045 hits
Earned $100k+	7.8 in 1001 in 13	7.3 in 1001 in 14	7.8 in 1001 in 13	5.8 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings	$1,048top tenth $65,378+	$1,029	$1,029	$709
Chance against standard	the yardstick	-6.4%0.5 fewer in 100	0.0%no change	-25.6%2.0 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the yardstick	-1.8%$19 less	-1.8%$19 less	-32.3%$339 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Choices Matter, 6 to 30 months old: 1,354 launches.

Launches counted: 1,354106 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.8 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $1,048top tenth $65,378+
Chance against standard: the yardstick
Typical against standard: the yardstick

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 62 of 1,354 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,29294 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.3 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $1,029
Chance against standard: -6.4%0.5 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -1.8%$19 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Legend of Mortal (10.7% of the money): 1,353 launches left.

Launches counted: 1,353105 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.8 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $1,029
Chance against standard: 0.0%no change
Typical against standard: -1.8%$19 less

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 780 of 1,354.

Launches counted: 78045 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.8 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $709
Chance against standard: -25.6%2.0 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -32.3%$339 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Choices Matter, 6 to 30 months old: 1,354 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 62 of 1,354 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Legend of Mortal (10.7% of the money): 1,353 launches left.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 780 of 1,354.

Exploration holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.

Exploration through every lens, all prices
Exploration	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view4,867 of 5,078 launches	Without the breakout5,077 of 5,078 launches	Last 18 months2,727 of 5,078 launches
Launches counted	5,078397 hits	4,867377 hits	5,077396 hits	2,727190 hits
Earned $100k+	7.8 in 1001 in 13	7.7 in 1001 in 13	7.8 in 1001 in 13	7.0 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings	$908top tenth $58,608+	$909	$902	$728
Chance against standard	the yardstick	-1.3%0.1 fewer in 100	0.0%no change	-10.3%0.8 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the yardstick	+0.1%$1 more	-0.7%$6 less	-19.8%$180 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Exploration, 6 to 30 months old: 5,078 launches.

Launches counted: 5,078397 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.8 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $908top tenth $58,608+
Chance against standard: the yardstick
Typical against standard: the yardstick

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 211 of 5,078 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 4,867377 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.7 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $909
Chance against standard: -1.3%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +0.1%$1 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (20.7% of the money): 5,077 launches left.

Launches counted: 5,077396 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.8 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $902
Chance against standard: 0.0%no change
Typical against standard: -0.7%$6 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,727 of 5,078.

Launches counted: 2,727190 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.0 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $728
Chance against standard: -10.3%0.8 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -19.8%$180 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Exploration, 6 to 30 months old: 5,078 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 211 of 5,078 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (20.7% of the money): 5,077 launches left.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,727 of 5,078.

A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Choices Matter + Exploration moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

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Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.