Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / Choices Matter + Visual Novel
Choices Matter + Visual Novel
Games tagged both Choices Matter and Visual Novel: 425 indie paid launches, 29 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Choices Matter + Visual Novel priced $10 to $20, hiding samples under 30 launches.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Choices Matter + Visual Novel trails Choices Matter and beats Visual Novel: 17.1 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 20.1 in 100 for Choices Matter and 14.6 in 100 for Visual Novel.
That is about 0.9 times the 18.6 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 105 games tagged both Choices Matter and Visual Novel priced $10 to $20. 17.1 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 21.8 for Choices Matter-only games and 13.8 for Visual Novel-only games, so the mix trails Choices Matter alone and beats Visual Novel alone.
Both: 105 games priced $10 to $20; 17.1 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $10,237.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 105 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Choices Matter + Visual Novel is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view400 of 425 launches | Without the breakout424 of 425 launches | Last 18 months242 of 425 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 42529 hits | 40022 hits | 42428 hits | 24212 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 6.8 in 1001 in 15 | 5.5 in 1001 in 18 | 6.6 in 1001 in 15 | 5.0 in 1001 in 20 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,416top tenth $65,378+ | $1,315 | $1,416 | $969 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -19.1%1.3 fewer in 100 | -2.9%0.2 fewer in 100 | -26.5%1.8 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | -7.1%$101 less | 0.0%no change | -31.6%$447 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Choices Matter and Visual Novel, 6 to 30 months old: 425 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 25 of 425 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Homicipher (11.5% of the money): 424 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 242 of 425.
Choices Matter is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.
| Choices Matter | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,292 of 1,354 launches | Without the breakout1,353 of 1,354 launches | Last 18 months780 of 1,354 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,354106 hits | 1,29294 hits | 1,353105 hits | 78045 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 7.8 in 1001 in 13 | 7.3 in 1001 in 14 | 7.8 in 1001 in 13 | 5.8 in 1001 in 17 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,048top tenth $65,378+ | $1,029 | $1,029 | $709 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -6.4%0.5 fewer in 100 | 0.0%no change | -25.6%2.0 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | -1.8%$19 less | -1.8%$19 less | -32.3%$339 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged Choices Matter, 6 to 30 months old: 1,354 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 62 of 1,354 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Legend of Mortal (10.7% of the money): 1,353 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 780 of 1,354.
Visual Novel is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.
| Visual Novel | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,823 of 2,114 launches | Without the breakout2,113 of 2,114 launches | Last 18 months1,162 of 2,114 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 2,114130 hits | 1,823100 hits | 2,113129 hits | 1,16263 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 6.1 in 1001 in 16 | 5.5 in 1001 in 18 | 6.1 in 1001 in 16 | 5.4 in 1001 in 19 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,293top tenth $48,802+ | $1,214 | $1,287 | $910 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -9.8%0.6 fewer in 100 | 0.0%no change | -11.5%0.7 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | -6.1%$79 less | -0.5%$6 less | -29.6%$383 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 6 to 30 months old: 2,114 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 291 of 2,114 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Until Then (7.5% of the money): 2,113 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,162 of 2,114.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Choices Matter + Visual Novel moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
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