Niche

Cinematic + Visual Novel

Games tagged both Cinematic and Visual Novel: 75 indie paid launches, 19 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,291 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 238 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2020 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,291 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 30+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 30+ launches Reset

Showing Cinematic + Visual Novel priced $10 to $20, hiding samples under 30 launches. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats both its tags; priced $10 to $20 it has too few launches to read.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

21 launches, under your minimum sample of 30.

Pick another price band, or lower the minimum sample.

1STWinner

Tag oneCinematic

33.3in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds33.3 in 100

Typical earnings$27,697

Launches87 / 29 hits

Pairno reading

--No reading

This pairCinematic + Visual Novel

--too few
to read

Odds--

Typical earnings--

Launches21

21 launches, under your minimum sample of 30.

2NDRunner-up

Tag twoVisual Novel

14.7in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds14.7 in 100

Typical earnings$9,963

Launches434 / 64 hits

Pairno reading

All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.4 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $10,978, from 4,304 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices75 in pair Under $524 in pair $5 to $1025 in pair $10 to $2021 in pair$20 to $405: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 21 games tagged both Cinematic and Visual Novel priced $10 to $20. 9 of 21 of them earned $100k+, against 30.3 in 100 for Cinematic-only games and 13.3 in 100 for Visual Novel-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Cinematic alone and is too small to compare with Visual Novel alone.

Both: 21 games priced $10 to $20; 9 of 21 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $80,330.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 21 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Minds Beneath Usleads this pair19.9%

PairMinds Beneath Us19.9%

CinematicThe Casting of Frank Stone™9.2%

Visual NovelSlay the Princess — The Pristine Cut7.1%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkAudience split. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: moves the answer. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Cinematic + Visual Novel

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Minds Beneath Us earned 19.9% of the estimated first-year money of the 75 Cinematic + Visual Novel launches.
Cinematic is led by The Casting of Frank Stone™, with 9.2% of its money.
Visual Novel is led by Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut, with 7.1% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Cinematic + Visual Novel is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Cinematic + Visual Novel through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view55 of 75 launches	Without the breakout74 of 75 launches	Last 18 months28 of 75 launches
Launches counted	7519 hits	5510 hits	7418 hits	287 hits
Earned $100k+	25.3 in 100	18.2 in 100	24.3 in 100	7 of 28too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings	$2,922top tenth $242,260+	$1,896	$2,922	$2,922
Chance against standard	the base	-28.2%7.2 fewer in 100	-4.0%1.0 fewer in 100	-1.3%0.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-35.1%$1,026 less; too few to tell	0.0%no change	0.0%no change; too few to tell
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Cinematic and Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 75 launches.

Launches counted: 7519 hits
Earned $100k+: 25.3 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,922top tenth $242,260+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 20 of 75 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 5510 hits
Earned $100k+: 18.2 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,896
Chance against standard: -28.2%7.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -35.1%$1,026 less; too few to tell

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Minds Beneath Us (19.9% of the money): 74 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 7418 hits
Earned $100k+: 24.3 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,922
Chance against standard: -4.0%1.0 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 28 of 75.

Launches counted: 287 hits
Earned $100k+: 7 of 28too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $2,922
Chance against standard: -1.3%0.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change; too few to tell

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Cinematic and Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 75 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 20 of 75 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Minds Beneath Us (19.9% of the money): 74 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 28 of 75.

Cinematic is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Cinematic through every lens, all prices
Cinematic	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view448 of 483 launches	Without the breakout482 of 483 launches	Last 18 months144 of 483 launches
Launches counted	48364 hits	44855 hits	48263 hits	14424 hits
Earned $100k+	13.3 in 100	12.3 in 100	13.1 in 100	16.7 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$1,339top tenth $162,664+	$1,138	$1,339	$1,327
Chance against standard	the base	-7.3%1.0 fewer in 100	-1.4%0.2 fewer in 100	+25.8%3.4 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-15.0%$201 less	0.0%no change	-0.9%$12 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Cinematic, 12 to 36 months old: 483 launches.

Launches counted: 48364 hits
Earned $100k+: 13.3 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,339top tenth $162,664+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 35 of 483 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 44855 hits
Earned $100k+: 12.3 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,138
Chance against standard: -7.3%1.0 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -15.0%$201 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, The Casting of Frank Stone™ (9.2% of the money): 482 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 48263 hits
Earned $100k+: 13.1 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,339
Chance against standard: -1.4%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 144 of 483.

Launches counted: 14424 hits
Earned $100k+: 16.7 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,327
Chance against standard: +25.8%3.4 more in 100
Typical against standard: -0.9%$12 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Cinematic, 12 to 36 months old: 483 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 35 of 483 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, The Casting of Frank Stone™ (9.2% of the money): 482 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 144 of 483.

Visual Novel is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Visual Novel through every lens, all prices
Visual Novel	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,641 of 1,872 launches	Without the breakout1,871 of 1,872 launches	Last 18 months534 of 1,872 launches
Launches counted	1,872130 hits	1,64199 hits	1,871129 hits	53441 hits
Earned $100k+	6.9 in 1001 in 14	6.0 in 1001 in 17	6.9 in 1001 in 15	7.7 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings	$1,448top tenth $61,563+	$1,430	$1,445	$1,594
Chance against standard	the base	-13.1%0.9 fewer in 100	-0.7%no change	+10.6%0.7 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-1.2%$18 less	-0.2%$3 less	+10.1%$146 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 1,872 launches.

Launches counted: 1,872130 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.9 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $1,448top tenth $61,563+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 231 of 1,872 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,64199 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.0 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $1,430
Chance against standard: -13.1%0.9 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -1.2%$18 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut (7.1% of the money): 1,871 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1,871129 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.9 in 1001 in 15
Typical first-year earnings: $1,445
Chance against standard: -0.7%no change
Typical against standard: -0.2%$3 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 534 of 1,872.

Launches counted: 53441 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.7 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $1,594
Chance against standard: +10.6%0.7 more in 100
Typical against standard: +10.1%$146 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 1,872 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 231 of 1,872 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut (7.1% of the money): 1,871 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 534 of 1,872.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Cinematic + Visual Novel moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

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Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.