Comparables
LeadersTop earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewTicker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / Crafting + Exploration
Crafting + Exploration
Games tagged both Crafting and Exploration: 183 indie paid launches, 47 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Crafting + Exploration priced $10 to $20.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Crafting + Exploration beats both its tags: 32.9 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 28.4 in 100 for Crafting and 20.6 in 100 for Exploration.
That is about 1.6 times the 20.5 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 73 games tagged both Crafting and Exploration priced $10 to $20. 32.9 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 26.1 in 100 for Crafting-only games and 19.5 in 100 for Exploration-only games, so games with both tags did better than games with either tag alone.
Both: 73 games priced $10 to $20; 32.9 in 100 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 92 in 100 · $10k+ 75 in 100 · $100k+ 33 in 100.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 73 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Crafting + Exploration holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view181 of 183 launches | Without the breakout182 of 183 launches | Last 18 months46 of 183 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 18347 hits | 18147 hits | 18246 hits | 4611 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 25.7 in 100 | 26.0 in 100 | 25.3 in 100 | 23.9 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $6,320top tenth $903,939+ | $6,320 | $6,320 | under 100 launches |
| Chance against standard | the base | +1.1%0.3 more in 100 | -1.6%0.4 fewer in 100 | -6.9%1.8 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | under 100 launches |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Crafting and Exploration, 12 to 36 months old: 183 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 2 of 183 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Enshrouded (39.6% of the money): 182 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 46 of 183.
Crafting is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.
| Crafting | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view626 of 648 launches | Without the breakout647 of 648 launches | Last 18 months194 of 648 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 648115 hits | 626113 hits | 647114 hits | 19427 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 17.7 in 100 | 18.1 in 100 | 17.6 in 100 | 13.9 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $2,684top tenth $314,719+ | $2,780 | $2,607 | $2,184 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +1.7%0.3 more in 100 | -0.7%0.1 fewer in 100 | -21.6%3.8 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +3.6%$96 more | -2.9%$77 less | -18.6%$500 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged Crafting, 12 to 36 months old: 648 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 22 of 648 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Palworld (36.1% of the money): 647 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 194 of 648.
Exploration holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| Exploration | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view4,432 of 4,635 launches | Without the breakout4,634 of 4,635 launches | Last 18 months1,277 of 4,635 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 4,635375 hits | 4,432357 hits | 4,634374 hits | 1,27799 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 8.1 in 1001 in 12 | 8.1 in 1001 in 12 | 8.1 in 1001 in 12 | 7.8 in 1001 in 13 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $876top tenth $64,081+ | $894 | $876 | $858 |
| Chance against standard | the base | -0.4%no change | -0.2%no change | -4.2%0.3 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +2.1%$18 more | 0.0%no change | -2.1%$18 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Exploration, 12 to 36 months old: 4,635 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 203 of 4,635 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (23.3% of the money): 4,634 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,277 of 4,635.
A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Crafting + Exploration moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.