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Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.

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on 30 Sep 2026

Niches / Dating Sim + Visual Novel

Niche

Dating Sim + Visual Novel

Games tagged both Dating Sim and Visual Novel: 475 indie paid launches, 41 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

  • A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about".
  • Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
  • From 29,637 indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, data of 1 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Showing Dating Sim + Visual Novel priced $10 to $20, west-facing view. Lens figures exist at all prices only, so inside a price band the page shows the standard figures.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Dating Sim + Visual Novel trails Dating Sim and beats Visual Novel: 15.7 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 18.9 in 100 for Dating Sim and 14.6 in 100 for Visual Novel.

That is about 0.8 times the 18.6 in 100 expected for any launch at this price. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this band uses the standard figures.

1STWinner
Tag oneDating Sim
18.9in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds18.9 in 100
Typical earnings$7,891
Launches185 / 35 hits
Pair trails by3.2 in 100
2NDRunner-up
This pairDating Sim + Visual Novel
15.7in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds15.7 in 100
Typical earnings$6,193
Launches134 / 21 hits
Expected18.6 in 100
3RDThird
Tag twoVisual Novel
14.6in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds14.6 in 100
Typical earnings$7,366
Launches460 / 67 hits
Pair leads by1.1 in 100
All indie launches $10 to $20: 18.6 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $9,226, from 4,810 launches.each block is 1 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page
All prices475 in pairUnder $5147 in pair$5 to $10151 in pair$10 to $20134 in pair$20 to $4043 in pair
What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 134 games tagged both Dating Sim and Visual Novel priced $10 to $20. 15.7 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 27.5 for Dating Sim-only games and 14.1 for Visual Novel-only games, so the mix trails Dating Sim alone and beats Visual Novel alone.

Both: 134 games priced $10 to $20; 15.7 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $6,193.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 134 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet. The west-facing view lens is not computed for the outer parts, so this diagram uses the standard figures.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynastyleads this pair25.7%
PairThe Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty25.7%
Dating SimLegend of Mortal19.7%
Visual NovelUntil Then7.5%
CheckOne game over half?no
NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

Open free preview
ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Dating Sim + Visual Novel

What this card holds

  • Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
  • One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
  • Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready
Same price banddata ready
Launched within a year of each otherplanned
Earned $100k+planned
The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

  • The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty earned 25.7% of the estimated first-year money of the 475 Dating Sim + Visual Novel launches.
  • Dating Sim is led by Legend of Mortal, with 19.7% of its money.
  • Visual Novel is led by Until Then, with 7.5% of its money.
  • No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Dating Sim + Visual Novel holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.

Dating Sim + Visual Novel through every lens, all prices
This pairBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view368 of 475 launchesWithout the breakout474 of 475 launchesLast 18 months249 of 475 launches
Launches counted47541 hits36825 hits47440 hits24918 hits
Earned $100k+8.6 in 1001 in 126.8 in 1001 in 158.4 in 1001 in 127.2 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings$2,103top tenth $75,292+$1,617$2,103$1,578
Chance against standardthe yardstick-20.9%1.8 fewer in 100-2.3%0.2 fewer in 100-16.3%1.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standardthe yardstick-23.1%$486 less0.0%no change-25.0%$525 less
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsHolds
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Dating Sim and Visual Novel, 6 to 30 months old: 475 launches.

Launches counted
47541 hits
Earned $100k+
8.6 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings
$2,103top tenth $75,292+
Chance against standard
the yardstick
Typical against standard
the yardstick
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 107 of 475 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
36825 hits
Earned $100k+
6.8 in 1001 in 15
Typical first-year earnings
$1,617
Chance against standard
-20.9%1.8 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-23.1%$486 less
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty (25.7% of the money): 474 launches left.

Launches counted
47440 hits
Earned $100k+
8.4 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings
$2,103
Chance against standard
-2.3%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 249 of 475.

Launches counted
24918 hits
Earned $100k+
7.2 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings
$1,578
Chance against standard
-16.3%1.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-25.0%$525 less
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged both Dating Sim and Visual Novel, 6 to 30 months old: 475 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 107 of 475 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty (25.7% of the money): 474 launches left.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 249 of 475.

Dating Sim is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.

Dating Sim through every lens, all prices
Dating SimBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view517 of 670 launchesWithout the breakout669 of 670 launchesLast 18 months348 of 670 launches
Launches counted67062 hits51740 hits66961 hits34829 hits
Earned $100k+9.3 in 1001 in 117.7 in 1001 in 139.1 in 1001 in 118.3 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings$2,265top tenth $85,976+$1,841$2,265$1,698
Chance against standardthe yardstick-17.2%1.6 fewer in 100-2.2%0.2 fewer in 100-10.8%1.0 fewer in 100
Typical against standardthe yardstick-18.7%$424 less0.0%no change-25.0%$567 less
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsMoves the answer
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Dating Sim, 6 to 30 months old: 670 launches.

Launches counted
67062 hits
Earned $100k+
9.3 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings
$2,265top tenth $85,976+
Chance against standard
the yardstick
Typical against standard
the yardstick
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 153 of 670 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
51740 hits
Earned $100k+
7.7 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings
$1,841
Chance against standard
-17.2%1.6 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-18.7%$424 less
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Legend of Mortal (19.7% of the money): 669 launches left.

Launches counted
66961 hits
Earned $100k+
9.1 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings
$2,265
Chance against standard
-2.2%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 348 of 670.

Launches counted
34829 hits
Earned $100k+
8.3 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings
$1,698
Chance against standard
-10.8%1.0 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-25.0%$567 less
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged Dating Sim, 6 to 30 months old: 670 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 153 of 670 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Legend of Mortal (19.7% of the money): 669 launches left.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 348 of 670.

Visual Novel is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.

Visual Novel through every lens, all prices
Visual NovelBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view1,823 of 2,114 launchesWithout the breakout2,113 of 2,114 launchesLast 18 months1,162 of 2,114 launches
Launches counted2,114130 hits1,823100 hits2,113129 hits1,16263 hits
Earned $100k+6.1 in 1001 in 165.5 in 1001 in 186.1 in 1001 in 165.4 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings$1,293top tenth $48,802+$1,214$1,287$910
Chance against standardthe yardstick-9.8%0.6 fewer in 1000.0%no change-11.5%0.7 fewer in 100
Typical against standardthe yardstick-6.1%$79 less-0.5%$6 less-29.6%$383 less
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsMoves the answer
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 6 to 30 months old: 2,114 launches.

Launches counted
2,114130 hits
Earned $100k+
6.1 in 1001 in 16
Typical first-year earnings
$1,293top tenth $48,802+
Chance against standard
the yardstick
Typical against standard
the yardstick
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 291 of 2,114 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
1,823100 hits
Earned $100k+
5.5 in 1001 in 18
Typical first-year earnings
$1,214
Chance against standard
-9.8%0.6 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-6.1%$79 less
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Until Then (7.5% of the money): 2,113 launches left.

Launches counted
2,113129 hits
Earned $100k+
6.1 in 1001 in 16
Typical first-year earnings
$1,287
Chance against standard
0.0%no change
Typical against standard
-0.5%$6 less
Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,162 of 2,114.

Launches counted
1,16263 hits
Earned $100k+
5.4 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings
$910
Chance against standard
-11.5%0.7 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-29.6%$383 less
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 6 to 30 months old: 2,114 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 291 of 2,114 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Until Then (7.5% of the money): 2,113 launches left.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,162 of 2,114.

A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Dating Sim + Visual Novel moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.

Releases

Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.