Niche

Dating Sim + Visual Novel

Games tagged both Dating Sim and Visual Novel: 450 indie paid launches, 42 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,291 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 238 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2020 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,291 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 100+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 100+ launches Reset

Showing Dating Sim + Visual Novel priced $10 to $20, hiding samples under 100 launches. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is about level with Dating Sim and is about level with Visual Novel; priced $10 to $20 it trails Dating Sim and is about level with Visual Novel.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Dating Sim + Visual Novel trails Dating Sim and is about level with Visual Novel: 14.9 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 19.4 in 100 for Dating Sim and 14.7 in 100 for Visual Novel.

That is about 0.7 times the 20.4 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.

1STWinner

Tag oneDating Sim

19.4in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds19.4 in 100

Typical earnings$8,738

Launches186 / 36 hits

Pair trails by4.5 in 100

TIETied

This pairDating Sim + Visual Novel

14.9in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds14.9 in 100

Typical earnings$6,399

Launches141 / 21 hits

Expected20.4 in 100

TIETied

Tag twoVisual Novel

14.7in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds14.7 in 100

Typical earnings$9,963

Launches434 / 64 hits

A tie, apart by0.1 in 100

All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.4 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $10,978, from 4,304 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices450 in pair Under $5141 in pair $5 to $10129 in pair $10 to $20141 in pair $20 to $4039 in pair

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 141 games tagged both Dating Sim and Visual Novel priced $10 to $20. 14.9 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 33.3 in 100 for Dating Sim-only games and 14.7 in 100 for Visual Novel-only games, so the mix trails Dating Sim alone and is about level with Visual Novel alone.

Both: 141 games priced $10 to $20; 14.9 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $6,399.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 141 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynastyleads this pair22.6%

PairThe Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty22.6%

Dating SimLegend of Mortal22.0%

Visual NovelSlay the Princess — The Pristine Cut7.1%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkAudience split. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: moves the answer. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Dating Sim + Visual Novel

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty earned 22.6% of the estimated first-year money of the 450 Dating Sim + Visual Novel launches.
Dating Sim is led by Legend of Mortal, with 22.0% of its money.
Visual Novel is led by Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut, with 7.1% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Dating Sim + Visual Novel is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Dating Sim + Visual Novel through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view364 of 450 launches	Without the breakout449 of 450 launches	Last 18 months117 of 450 launches
Launches counted	45042 hits	36428 hits	44941 hits	11711 hits
Earned $100k+	9.3 in 1001 in 11	7.7 in 1001 in 13	9.1 in 1001 in 11	9.4 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings	$2,427top tenth $92,621+	$2,211	$2,372	$2,427
Chance against standard	the base	-17.6%1.6 fewer in 100	-2.2%0.2 fewer in 100	+0.7%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-8.9%$216 less	-2.3%$55 less	0.0%no change
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Dating Sim and Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 450 launches.

Launches counted: 45042 hits
Earned $100k+: 9.3 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings: $2,427top tenth $92,621+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 86 of 450 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 36428 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.7 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $2,211
Chance against standard: -17.6%1.6 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -8.9%$216 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty (22.6% of the money): 449 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 44941 hits
Earned $100k+: 9.1 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings: $2,372
Chance against standard: -2.2%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -2.3%$55 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 117 of 450.

Launches counted: 11711 hits
Earned $100k+: 9.4 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings: $2,427
Chance against standard: +0.7%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Dating Sim and Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 450 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 86 of 450 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty (22.6% of the money): 449 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 117 of 450.

Dating Sim is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Dating Sim through every lens, all prices
Dating Sim	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view496 of 629 launches	Without the breakout628 of 629 launches	Last 18 months166 of 629 launches
Launches counted	62963 hits	49642 hits	62862 hits	16618 hits
Earned $100k+	10.0 in 100	8.5 in 1001 in 12	9.9 in 1001 in 10	10.8 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$2,442top tenth $101,644+	$2,276	$2,442	$2,359
Chance against standard	the base	-15.5%1.5 fewer in 100	-1.4%0.1 fewer in 100	+8.3%0.8 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-6.8%$166 less	0.0%no change	-3.4%$83 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Dating Sim, 12 to 36 months old: 629 launches.

Launches counted: 62963 hits
Earned $100k+: 10.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,442top tenth $101,644+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 133 of 629 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 49642 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.5 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $2,276
Chance against standard: -15.5%1.5 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -6.8%$166 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Legend of Mortal (22.0% of the money): 628 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 62862 hits
Earned $100k+: 9.9 in 1001 in 10
Typical first-year earnings: $2,442
Chance against standard: -1.4%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 166 of 629.

Launches counted: 16618 hits
Earned $100k+: 10.8 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,359
Chance against standard: +8.3%0.8 more in 100
Typical against standard: -3.4%$83 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Dating Sim, 12 to 36 months old: 629 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 133 of 629 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Legend of Mortal (22.0% of the money): 628 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 166 of 629.

Visual Novel is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Visual Novel through every lens, all prices
Visual Novel	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,641 of 1,872 launches	Without the breakout1,871 of 1,872 launches	Last 18 months534 of 1,872 launches
Launches counted	1,872130 hits	1,64199 hits	1,871129 hits	53441 hits
Earned $100k+	6.9 in 1001 in 14	6.0 in 1001 in 17	6.9 in 1001 in 15	7.7 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings	$1,448top tenth $61,563+	$1,430	$1,445	$1,594
Chance against standard	the base	-13.1%0.9 fewer in 100	-0.7%no change	+10.6%0.7 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-1.2%$18 less	-0.2%$3 less	+10.1%$146 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 1,872 launches.

Launches counted: 1,872130 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.9 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $1,448top tenth $61,563+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 231 of 1,872 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,64199 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.0 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $1,430
Chance against standard: -13.1%0.9 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -1.2%$18 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut (7.1% of the money): 1,871 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1,871129 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.9 in 1001 in 15
Typical first-year earnings: $1,445
Chance against standard: -0.7%no change
Typical against standard: -0.2%$3 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 534 of 1,872.

Launches counted: 53441 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.7 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $1,594
Chance against standard: +10.6%0.7 more in 100
Typical against standard: +10.1%$146 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 1,872 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 231 of 1,872 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut (7.1% of the money): 1,871 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 534 of 1,872.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Dating Sim + Visual Novel moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

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Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.