Niche

Exploration + Lovecraftian

Games tagged both Exploration and Lovecraftian: 40 indie paid launches, 7 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,758 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 2 Nov 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 230 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2021 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,758 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing Exploration + Lovecraftian priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats Exploration and is about level with Lovecraftian; priced $10 to $20 it is too small to compare with Exploration and is too small to compare with Lovecraftian.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Exploration + Lovecraftian is too small to compare with Exploration and is too small to compare with Lovecraftian: 6 of its 14 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 20.6 in 100 for Exploration and 34.0 in 100 for Lovecraftian.

Small sample: 14 launches, 6 hits.

TIETied

Tag onemood tagExploration

20.6in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds20.6 in 100

Typical earnings$12,769

Launches880 / 181 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairExploration + Lovecraftian

6 of 14launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds6 of 14 launches

$1k+12 of 14 launches

$10k+12 of 14 launches

Launches14 / 6 hits

Expected20.5 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twoLovecraftian

34.0in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds34.0 in 100

$1k+91 in 100

$10k+72 in 100

Launches47 / 16 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.5 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $11,233, from 4,337 launches.each block is 2.5 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Exploration is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices40 in pair Under $512 in pair $5 to $1013 in pair $10 to $2014 in pair$20 to $401: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 14 games tagged both Exploration and Lovecraftian priced $10 to $20. 6 of 14 of them earned $100k+, against 20.2 in 100 for Exploration-only games and 30.3 in 100 for Lovecraftian-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Exploration alone and is too small to compare with Lovecraftian alone.

Both: 14 games priced $10 to $20; 6 of 14 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 12 of 14 launches · $10k+ 12 of 14 launches · $100k+ 6 of 14 launches.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 14 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Look Outsideleads this pair50.9%

PairLook Outside50.9%

ExplorationHollow Knight: Silksong23.3%

LovecraftianStill Wakes the Deep28.6%

CheckOne game over half?yes

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Exploration + Lovecraftian

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Look Outside earned 50.9% of the estimated first-year money of the 40 Exploration + Lovecraftian launches.
Exploration is led by Hollow Knight: Silksong, with 23.3% of its money.
Lovecraftian is led by Still Wakes the Deep, with 28.6% of its money.
One game holds over half of this pair's money: read every figure here as that game's story.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Exploration + Lovecraftian is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money. It holds in West-facing view.

Exploration + Lovecraftian through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view37 of 40 launches	Without the breakout39 of 40 launches	Last 18 months11 of 40 launches
Launches counted	407 hits	377 hits	396 hits	112 hits
Earned $100k+	17.5 in 100	18.9 in 100	15.4 in 100	2 of 11too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+	50 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 73 in 100	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	+8.1%1.4 more in 100	-12.1%2.1 fewer in 100	+3.9%0.7 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Moves the answer	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Exploration and Lovecraftian, 12 to 36 months old: 40 launches.

Launches counted: 407 hits
Earned $100k+: 17.5 in 100
Chance of $10k+: 50 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 73 in 100
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 3 of 40 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 377 hits
Earned $100k+: 18.9 in 100
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: +8.1%1.4 more in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Without the breakoutMoves the answer

Drops the single biggest earner, Look Outside (50.9% of the money): 39 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 396 hits
Earned $100k+: 15.4 in 100
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -12.1%2.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 11 of 40.

Launches counted: 112 hits
Earned $100k+: 2 of 11too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: +3.9%0.7 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Exploration and Lovecraftian, 12 to 36 months old: 40 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 3 of 40 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Look Outside (50.9% of the money): 39 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 11 of 40.

Exploration holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Exploration through every lens, all prices
Exploration	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view4,432 of 4,635 launches	Without the breakout4,634 of 4,635 launches	Last 18 months1,277 of 4,635 launches
Launches counted	4,635375 hits	4,432357 hits	4,634374 hits	1,27799 hits
Earned $100k+	8.1 in 1001 in 12	8.1 in 1001 in 12	8.1 in 1001 in 12	7.8 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings	$876top tenth $64,081+	$894	$876	$858
Chance against standard	the base	-0.4%no change	-0.2%no change	-4.2%0.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+2.1%$18 more	0.0%no change	-2.1%$18 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Exploration, 12 to 36 months old: 4,635 launches.

Launches counted: 4,635375 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.1 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $876top tenth $64,081+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 203 of 4,635 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 4,432357 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.1 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $894
Chance against standard: -0.4%no change
Typical against standard: +2.1%$18 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (23.3% of the money): 4,634 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 4,634374 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.1 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $876
Chance against standard: -0.2%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,277 of 4,635.

Launches counted: 1,27799 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.8 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $858
Chance against standard: -4.2%0.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -2.1%$18 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Exploration, 12 to 36 months old: 4,635 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 203 of 4,635 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (23.3% of the money): 4,634 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,277 of 4,635.

Lovecraftian holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Lovecraftian through every lens, all prices
Lovecraftian	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view147 of 158 launches	Without the breakout157 of 158 launches	Last 18 months40 of 158 launches
Launches counted	15823 hits	14722 hits	15722 hits	406 hits
Earned $100k+	14.6 in 100	15.0 in 100	14.0 in 100	15.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$4,109top tenth $234,112+	$4,642	$4,056	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	+2.8%0.4 more in 100	-3.7%0.5 fewer in 100	+3.0%0.4 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+13.0%$533 more	-1.3%$53 less	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Lovecraftian, 12 to 36 months old: 158 launches.

Launches counted: 15823 hits
Earned $100k+: 14.6 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $4,109top tenth $234,112+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 11 of 158 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 14722 hits
Earned $100k+: 15.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $4,642
Chance against standard: +2.8%0.4 more in 100
Typical against standard: +13.0%$533 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Still Wakes the Deep (28.6% of the money): 157 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 15722 hits
Earned $100k+: 14.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $4,056
Chance against standard: -3.7%0.5 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -1.3%$53 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 40 of 158.

Launches counted: 406 hits
Earned $100k+: 15.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: +3.0%0.4 more in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Lovecraftian, 12 to 36 months old: 158 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 11 of 158 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Still Wakes the Deep (28.6% of the money): 157 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 40 of 158.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Exploration + Lovecraftian moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.