Niche

Exploration + Perma Death

Games tagged both Exploration and Perma Death: 54 indie paid launches, 3 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,291 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price Under $5

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 238 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2020 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,291 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Last 18 months

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Only launches from the last 18 months. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

Under $5 Last 18 months Reset

Showing Exploration + Perma Death priced under $5, last 18 months. Lens figures exist at all prices only, so inside a price band the page shows the standard figures.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?Under $5

Exploration + Perma Death is too small to compare with Exploration and is too small to compare with Perma Death: 0 of its 27 launches earned $100k+ priced under $5, against 0.3 in 100 for Exploration and 1 of 225 launches for Perma Death.

Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this band uses the standard figures. Small sample: 27 launches, 0 hits.

TIEA tie

Tag onemood tagExploration

0.3in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds1 in 309

Typical earnings$215

Launches2,160 / 7 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairExploration + Perma Death

0 of 27launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds0 of 27 launches

$1k+9 of 27 launches

$10k+1 of 27 launches

Launches27 / 0 hits

Expected0.4 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twoPerma Death

1 of 225launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds1 of 225 launches

Typical earnings$157

Launches225 / 1 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches under $5: 0.4 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 238), typical $158, from 13,785 launches.each block is 0.5 in 100 all indie at under $5Exploration is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices54 in pair Under $527 in pair $5 to $1019 in pair$10 to $207: too few$20 to $401: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 27 games tagged both Exploration and Perma Death priced under $5. 0 of 27 of them earned $100k+, against 0.3 in 100 for Exploration-only games and 1 of 198 for Perma Death-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Exploration alone and is too small to compare with Perma Death alone.

Both: 27 games priced under $5; 0 of 27 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 9 of 27 launches · $10k+ 1 of 27 launches · $100k+ 0 of 27 launches.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 27 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet. The last 18 months lens is not computed for the outer parts, so this diagram uses the standard figures.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Night Raiderleads this pair28.1%

PairNight Raider28.1%

ExplorationHollow Knight: Silksong22.3%

Perma DeathVoid War18.0%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 1 of 3, 2 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: too few to tell. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Exploration + Perma Death

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Night Raider earned 28.1% of the estimated first-year money of the 54 Exploration + Perma Death launches.
Exploration is led by Hollow Knight: Silksong, with 22.3% of its money.
Perma Death is led by Void War, with 18.0% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Exploration + Perma Death holds in Without the breakout; too few to tell in West-facing view and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Exploration + Perma Death through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view52 of 54 launches	Without the breakout53 of 54 launches	Last 18 months14 of 54 launches
Launches counted	543 hits	522 hits	532 hits	140 hits
Earned $100k+	3 of 54too few for a rate	2 of 52too few for a rate	2 of 53too few for a rate	0 of 14too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+	15 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 48 in 100	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	-30.8%1.7 fewer in 100; too few to tell	-32.1%1.8 fewer in 100	-100.0%5.6 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Too few to tell	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Exploration and Perma Death, 12 to 36 months old: 54 launches.

Launches counted: 543 hits
Earned $100k+: 3 of 54too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: 15 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 48 in 100
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewToo few to tell

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 2 of 54 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 522 hits
Earned $100k+: 2 of 52too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -30.8%1.7 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Night Raider (28.1% of the money): 53 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 532 hits
Earned $100k+: 2 of 53too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -32.1%1.8 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 14 of 54.

Launches counted: 140 hits
Earned $100k+: 0 of 14too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -100.0%5.6 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Exploration and Perma Death, 12 to 36 months old: 54 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 2 of 54 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Night Raider (28.1% of the money): 53 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 14 of 54.

Exploration holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Exploration through every lens, all prices
Exploration	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view4,381 of 4,582 launches	Without the breakout4,581 of 4,582 launches	Last 18 months1,268 of 4,582 launches
Launches counted	4,582382 hits	4,381366 hits	4,581381 hits	1,268105 hits
Earned $100k+	8.3 in 1001 in 12	8.4 in 1001 in 12	8.3 in 1001 in 12	8.3 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings	$877top tenth $65,025+	$901	$877	$884
Chance against standard	the base	+0.2%no change	-0.2%no change	-0.7%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+2.7%$24 more	0.0%no change	+0.8%$7 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Exploration, 12 to 36 months old: 4,582 launches.

Launches counted: 4,582382 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.3 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $877top tenth $65,025+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 201 of 4,582 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 4,381366 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.4 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $901
Chance against standard: +0.2%no change
Typical against standard: +2.7%$24 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (22.3% of the money): 4,581 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 4,581381 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.3 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $877
Chance against standard: -0.2%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,268 of 4,582.

Launches counted: 1,268105 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.3 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $884
Chance against standard: -0.7%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +0.8%$7 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Exploration, 12 to 36 months old: 4,582 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 201 of 4,582 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (22.3% of the money): 4,581 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,268 of 4,582.

Perma Death is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Perma Death through every lens, all prices
Perma Death	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view378 of 394 launches	Without the breakout393 of 394 launches	Last 18 months116 of 394 launches
Launches counted	39419 hits	37816 hits	39318 hits	1166 hits
Earned $100k+	4.8 in 1001 in 21	4.2 in 1001 in 24	4.6 in 1001 in 22	5.2 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings	$517top tenth $15,694+	$634	$512	$446
Chance against standard	the base	-12.2%0.6 fewer in 100	-5.0%0.2 fewer in 100	+7.3%0.4 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+22.6%$117 more	-1.0%$5 less	-13.7%$71 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Perma Death, 12 to 36 months old: 394 launches.

Launches counted: 39419 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.8 in 1001 in 21
Typical first-year earnings: $517top tenth $15,694+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 16 of 394 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 37816 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.2 in 1001 in 24
Typical first-year earnings: $634
Chance against standard: -12.2%0.6 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +22.6%$117 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Void War (18.0% of the money): 393 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 39318 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.6 in 1001 in 22
Typical first-year earnings: $512
Chance against standard: -5.0%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -1.0%$5 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 116 of 394.

Launches counted: 1166 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.2 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings: $446
Chance against standard: +7.3%0.4 more in 100
Typical against standard: -13.7%$71 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Perma Death, 12 to 36 months old: 394 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 16 of 394 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Void War (18.0% of the money): 393 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 116 of 394.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Exploration + Perma Death moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.