Niche

Exploration + Surreal

Games tagged both Exploration and Surreal: 187 indie paid launches, 13 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,280 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 17 hit $100k+Under $51 in 219 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 30 hit $100k+$10 to $2018 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4040 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,280 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 100+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 100+ launches Reset

Showing Exploration + Surreal priced $10 to $20, hiding samples under 100 launches. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is about level with Exploration and is about level with Surreal; priced $10 to $20 it has too few launches to read.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

29 launches, under your minimum sample of 100.

Pick another price band, or lower the minimum sample.

1STWinner

Tag onemood tagExploration

17.3in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds17.3 in 100

Typical earnings$9,369

Launches878 / 152 hits

Pairno reading

--No reading

This pairExploration + Surreal

--too few
to read

Odds--

Typical earnings--

Launches29

29 launches, under your minimum sample of 100.

--No reading

Tag twomood tagSurreal

--too few
to read

Odds--

Typical earnings--

Launches78

78 launches, under your minimum sample of 100.

All indie launches $10 to $20: 17.6 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $8,234, from 4,301 launches.each block is 1 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Exploration is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 40.0 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices187 in pair Under $599 in pair $5 to $1057 in pair $10 to $2029 in pair$20 to $402: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 29 games tagged both Exploration and Surreal priced $10 to $20. 6 of 29 of them earned $100k+, against 17.2 in 100 for Exploration-only games and 18.4 in 100 for Surreal-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Exploration alone and is too small to compare with Surreal alone.

Both: 29 games priced $10 to $20; 6 of 29 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $20,301.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 29 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

INDIKAleads this pair31.3%

PairINDIKA31.3%

ExplorationHollow Knight: Silksong21.4%

SurrealINDIKA12.6%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 2 of 3, 1 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Exploration + Surreal

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

INDIKA earned 31.3% of the estimated first-year money of the 187 Exploration + Surreal launches.
Exploration is led by Hollow Knight: Silksong, with 21.4% of its money.
It also leads Surreal, with 12.6% of that tag's money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Exploration + Surreal holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout; too few to tell in Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Exploration + Surreal through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view183 of 187 launches	Without the breakout186 of 187 launches	Last 18 months48 of 187 launches
Launches counted	18713 hits	18312 hits	18612 hits	482 hits
Earned $100k+	7.0 in 1001 in 14	6.6 in 1001 in 15	6.5 in 1001 in 16	2 of 48too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings	$1,518top tenth $52,590+	$1,518	$1,518	$3,156
Chance against standard	the base	-5.7%0.4 fewer in 100	-7.2%0.5 fewer in 100	-40.1%2.8 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	0.0%no change	0.0%no change	+107.9%$1,638 more; too few to tell
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Exploration and Surreal, 12 to 36 months old: 187 launches.

Launches counted: 18713 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.0 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $1,518top tenth $52,590+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 4 of 187 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 18312 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.6 in 1001 in 15
Typical first-year earnings: $1,518
Chance against standard: -5.7%0.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, INDIKA (31.3% of the money): 186 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 18612 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.5 in 1001 in 16
Typical first-year earnings: $1,518
Chance against standard: -7.2%0.5 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 48 of 187.

Launches counted: 482 hits
Earned $100k+: 2 of 48too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $3,156
Chance against standard: -40.1%2.8 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: +107.9%$1,638 more; too few to tell

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Exploration and Surreal, 12 to 36 months old: 187 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 4 of 187 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, INDIKA (31.3% of the money): 186 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 48 of 187.

Exploration holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Exploration through every lens, all prices
Exploration	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view4,379 of 4,579 launches	Without the breakout4,578 of 4,579 launches	Last 18 months1,268 of 4,579 launches
Launches counted	4,579337 hits	4,379321 hits	4,578336 hits	1,26896 hits
Earned $100k+	7.4 in 1001 in 14	7.3 in 1001 in 14	7.3 in 1001 in 14	7.6 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings	$861top tenth $53,530+	$862	$861	$861
Chance against standard	the base	-0.4%no change	-0.3%no change	+2.9%0.2 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+0.1%$1 more	0.0%no change	0.0%no change
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Exploration, 12 to 36 months old: 4,579 launches.

Launches counted: 4,579337 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.4 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $861top tenth $53,530+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 200 of 4,579 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 4,379321 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.3 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $862
Chance against standard: -0.4%no change
Typical against standard: +0.1%$1 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (21.4% of the money): 4,578 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 4,578336 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.3 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $861
Chance against standard: -0.3%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,268 of 4,579.

Launches counted: 1,26896 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.6 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $861
Chance against standard: +2.9%0.2 more in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Exploration, 12 to 36 months old: 4,579 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 200 of 4,579 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (21.4% of the money): 4,578 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,268 of 4,579.

Surreal holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Surreal through every lens, all prices
Surreal	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view552 of 578 launches	Without the breakout577 of 578 launches	Last 18 months156 of 578 launches
Launches counted	57831 hits	55229 hits	57730 hits	1566 hits
Earned $100k+	5.4 in 1001 in 19	5.3 in 1001 in 19	5.2 in 1001 in 19	3.8 in 1001 in 26
Typical first-year earnings	$1,019top tenth $36,298+	$1,012	$1,018	$1,243
Chance against standard	the base	-2.0%0.1 fewer in 100	-3.1%0.2 fewer in 100	-28.3%1.5 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-0.7%$7 less	-0.1%$1 less	+22.0%$224 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Surreal, 12 to 36 months old: 578 launches.

Launches counted: 57831 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.4 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings: $1,019top tenth $36,298+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 26 of 578 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 55229 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.3 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings: $1,012
Chance against standard: -2.0%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -0.7%$7 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, INDIKA (12.6% of the money): 577 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 57730 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.2 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings: $1,018
Chance against standard: -3.1%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -0.1%$1 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 156 of 578.

Launches counted: 1566 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.8 in 1001 in 26
Typical first-year earnings: $1,243
Chance against standard: -28.3%1.5 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +22.0%$224 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Surreal, 12 to 36 months old: 578 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 26 of 578 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, INDIKA (12.6% of the money): 577 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 156 of 578.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Exploration + Surreal moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.