Comparables
LeadersTop earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewTicker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / Exploration + Walking Simulator
Exploration + Walking Simulator
Games tagged both Exploration and Walking Simulator: 765 indie paid launches, 32 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Exploration + Walking Simulator priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair trails Exploration and is about level with Walking Simulator; priced $10 to $20 it is about level with Exploration and is about level with Walking Simulator.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Exploration + Walking Simulator is about level with Exploration and is about level with Walking Simulator: 18.8 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 20.6 in 100 for Exploration and 21.1 in 100 for Walking Simulator.
That is about 0.9 times the 20.5 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 64 games tagged both Exploration and Walking Simulator priced $10 to $20. 18.8 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 20.7 in 100 for Exploration-only games and 25.8 in 100 for Walking Simulator-only games, so the mix is about level with Exploration alone and trails Walking Simulator alone.
Both: 64 games priced $10 to $20; 18.8 in 100 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 88 in 100 · $10k+ 53 in 100 · $100k+ 19 in 100.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 64 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Exploration + Walking Simulator holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view739 of 765 launches | Without the breakout764 of 765 launches | Last 18 months243 of 765 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 76532 hits | 73932 hits | 76431 hits | 2439 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 4.2 in 1001 in 24 | 4.3 in 1001 in 23 | 4.1 in 1001 in 25 | 3.7 in 1001 in 27 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,042top tenth $16,902+ | $1,071 | $1,042 | $872 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +3.5%0.1 more in 100 | -3.0%0.1 fewer in 100 | -11.5%0.5 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +2.8%$29 more | 0.0%no change | -16.3%$170 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Exploration and Walking Simulator, 12 to 36 months old: 765 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 26 of 765 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, The Talos Principle 2 (36.9% of the money): 764 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 243 of 765.
Exploration holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| Exploration | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view4,432 of 4,635 launches | Without the breakout4,634 of 4,635 launches | Last 18 months1,277 of 4,635 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 4,635375 hits | 4,432357 hits | 4,634374 hits | 1,27799 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 8.1 in 1001 in 12 | 8.1 in 1001 in 12 | 8.1 in 1001 in 12 | 7.8 in 1001 in 13 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $876top tenth $64,081+ | $894 | $876 | $858 |
| Chance against standard | the base | -0.4%no change | -0.2%no change | -4.2%0.3 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +2.1%$18 more | 0.0%no change | -2.1%$18 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Exploration, 12 to 36 months old: 4,635 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 203 of 4,635 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (23.3% of the money): 4,634 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,277 of 4,635.
Walking Simulator holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| Walking Simulator | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,369 of 1,429 launches | Without the breakout1,428 of 1,429 launches | Last 18 months449 of 1,429 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,42950 hits | 1,36950 hits | 1,42849 hits | 44915 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 3.5 in 1001 in 29 | 3.7 in 1001 in 27 | 3.4 in 1001 in 29 | 3.3 in 1001 in 30 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $906top tenth $16,441+ | $925 | $906 | $799 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +4.4%0.2 more in 100 | -1.9%0.1 fewer in 100 | -4.5%0.2 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +2.1%$19 more | 0.0%no change | -11.8%$107 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Walking Simulator, 12 to 36 months old: 1,429 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 60 of 1,429 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, The Talos Principle 2 (18.3% of the money): 1,428 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 449 of 1,429.
A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Exploration + Walking Simulator moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
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