Niche

FMV + Visual Novel

Games tagged both FMV and Visual Novel: 60 indie paid launches, 19 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,280 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 17 hit $100k+Under $51 in 219 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 30 hit $100k+$10 to $2018 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4040 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,280 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 100+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 100+ launches Reset

Showing FMV + Visual Novel priced $10 to $20, hiding samples under 100 launches. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats both its tags; priced $10 to $20 it has too few launches to read.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

18 launches, under your minimum sample of 100.

Pick another price band, or lower the minimum sample.

--No reading

Tag oneFMV

--too few
to read

Odds--

Typical earnings--

Launches40

40 launches, under your minimum sample of 100.

--No reading

This pairFMV + Visual Novel

--too few
to read

Odds--

Typical earnings--

Launches18

18 launches, under your minimum sample of 100.

1STWinner

Tag twoVisual Novel

12.7in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds12.7 in 100

Typical earnings$7,469

Launches434 / 55 hits

Pairno reading

All indie launches $10 to $20: 17.6 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $8,234, from 4,301 launches.each block is 1 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 40.0 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices60 in pairUnder $55: too few$5 to $1036 in pair $10 to $2018 in pair$20 to $401: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 18 games tagged both FMV and Visual Novel priced $10 to $20. 10 of 18 of them earned $100k+, against 9 of 22 for FMV-only games and 10.8 in 100 for Visual Novel-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with FMV alone and is too small to compare with Visual Novel alone.

Both: 18 games priced $10 to $20; 10 of 18 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $165,201.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 18 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Road to Empress Ileads this pair21.8%

PairRoad to Empress I21.8%

FMVRevenge on gold diggers26.4%

Visual NovelSlay the Princess — The Pristine Cut6.8%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads FMV + Visual Novel

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Road to Empress I earned 21.8% of the estimated first-year money of the 60 FMV + Visual Novel launches.
FMV is led by Revenge on gold diggers, with 26.4% of its money.
Visual Novel is led by Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut, with 6.8% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

FMV + Visual Novel holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

FMV + Visual Novel through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view36 of 60 launches	Without the breakout59 of 60 launches	Last 18 months24 of 60 launches
Launches counted	6019 hits	369 hits	5918 hits	249 hits
Earned $100k+	31.7 in 100	25.0 in 100	30.5 in 100	9 of 24too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings	$39,010top tenth $292,763+	$32,931	$34,029	$64,637
Chance against standard	the base	-21.1%6.7 fewer in 100	-3.7%1.2 fewer in 100	+18.4%5.8 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-15.6%$6,079 less; too few to tell	-12.8%$4,981 less	+65.7%$25,627 more; too few to tell
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both FMV and Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 60 launches.

Launches counted: 6019 hits
Earned $100k+: 31.7 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $39,010top tenth $292,763+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 24 of 60 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 369 hits
Earned $100k+: 25.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $32,931
Chance against standard: -21.1%6.7 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -15.6%$6,079 less; too few to tell

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Road to Empress I (21.8% of the money): 59 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 5918 hits
Earned $100k+: 30.5 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $34,029
Chance against standard: -3.7%1.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -12.8%$4,981 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 24 of 60.

Launches counted: 249 hits
Earned $100k+: 9 of 24too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $64,637
Chance against standard: +18.4%5.8 more in 100
Typical against standard: +65.7%$25,627 more; too few to tell

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both FMV and Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 60 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 24 of 60 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Road to Empress I (21.8% of the money): 59 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 24 of 60.

FMV is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

FMV through every lens, all prices
FMV	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view106 of 148 launches	Without the breakout147 of 148 launches	Last 18 months61 of 148 launches
Launches counted	14830 hits	10617 hits	14729 hits	6115 hits
Earned $100k+	20.3 in 100	16.0 in 100	19.7 in 100	24.6 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$9,667top tenth $224,277+	$4,824	$9,576	$21,527
Chance against standard	the base	-20.9%4.2 fewer in 100	-2.7%0.5 fewer in 100	+21.3%4.3 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-50.1%$4,843 less	-0.9%$91 less	+122.7%$11,860 more; too few to tell
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged FMV, 12 to 36 months old: 148 launches.

Launches counted: 14830 hits
Earned $100k+: 20.3 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $9,667top tenth $224,277+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 42 of 148 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 10617 hits
Earned $100k+: 16.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $4,824
Chance against standard: -20.9%4.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -50.1%$4,843 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Revenge on gold diggers (26.4% of the money): 147 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 14729 hits
Earned $100k+: 19.7 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $9,576
Chance against standard: -2.7%0.5 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -0.9%$91 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 61 of 148.

Launches counted: 6115 hits
Earned $100k+: 24.6 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $21,527
Chance against standard: +21.3%4.3 more in 100
Typical against standard: +122.7%$11,860 more; too few to tell

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged FMV, 12 to 36 months old: 148 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 42 of 148 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Revenge on gold diggers (26.4% of the money): 147 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 61 of 148.

Visual Novel is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Visual Novel through every lens, all prices
Visual Novel	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,641 of 1,872 launches	Without the breakout1,871 of 1,872 launches	Last 18 months534 of 1,872 launches
Launches counted	1,872112 hits	1,64182 hits	1,871111 hits	53436 hits
Earned $100k+	6.0 in 1001 in 17	5.0 in 1001 in 20	5.9 in 1001 in 17	6.7 in 1001 in 15
Typical first-year earnings	$1,427top tenth $48,379+	$1,408	$1,424	$1,530
Chance against standard	the base	-16.5%1.0 fewer in 100	-0.8%0.1 fewer in 100	+12.7%0.8 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-1.3%$19 less	-0.2%$3 less	+7.2%$103 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 1,872 launches.

Launches counted: 1,872112 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.0 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $1,427top tenth $48,379+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 231 of 1,872 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,64182 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.0 in 1001 in 20
Typical first-year earnings: $1,408
Chance against standard: -16.5%1.0 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -1.3%$19 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut (6.8% of the money): 1,871 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1,871111 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.9 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $1,424
Chance against standard: -0.8%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -0.2%$3 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 534 of 1,872.

Launches counted: 53436 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.7 in 1001 in 15
Typical first-year earnings: $1,530
Chance against standard: +12.7%0.8 more in 100
Typical against standard: +7.2%$103 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 1,872 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 231 of 1,872 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut (6.8% of the money): 1,871 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 534 of 1,872.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when FMV + Visual Novel moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.