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Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.

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on 3 Oct 2026

Niches / Historical + RPG

Niche

Historical + RPG

Games tagged both Historical and RPG: 73 indie paid launches, 10 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

  • A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
  • Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
  • From 26,291 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Showing Historical + RPG priced $10 to $20, last 18 months. Lens figures exist at all prices only, so inside a price band the page shows the standard figures. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is about level with Historical and beats RPG; priced $10 to $20 it is too small to compare with Historical and is too small to compare with RPG.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Historical + RPG is too small to compare with Historical and is too small to compare with RPG: 6 of its 18 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 26.0 in 100 for Historical and 20.3 in 100 for RPG.

Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this band uses the standard figures. Small sample: 18 launches, 6 hits.

TIEA tie
Tag onemood tagHistorical
26.0in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds26.0 in 100
Typical earnings$24,544
Launches104 / 27 hits
Pair against ittoo few hits to compare
TIEA tie
This pairHistorical + RPG
6 of 18launches earned
$100k+ small
Odds6 of 18 launches
Typical earnings$49,037
Launches18 / 6 hits
Expected20.4 in 100
TIETied
Tag twoRPG
20.3in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds20.3 in 100
Typical earnings$11,268
Launches789 / 160 hits
Pair against ittoo few hits to compare
All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.4 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $10,978, from 4,304 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Historical is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page
All prices73 in pairUnder $525 in pair$5 to $1027 in pair$10 to $2018 in pair$20 to $403: too few
What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 18 games tagged both Historical and RPG priced $10 to $20. 6 of 18 of them earned $100k+, against 24.4 in 100 for Historical-only games and 20.0 in 100 for RPG-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Historical alone and is too small to compare with RPG alone.

Both: 18 games priced $10 to $20; 6 of 18 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $49,037.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 18 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet. The last 18 months lens is not computed for the outer parts, so this diagram uses the standard figures.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Road to Empress Ileads this pair29.1%
PairRoad to Empress I29.1%
HistoricalManor Lords63.2%
RPGPath of Exile 218.0%
CheckOne game over half?no
NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 2 of 3, 1 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview
ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Historical + RPG

What this card holds

  • Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
  • One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
  • Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready
Same price banddata ready
Launched within a year of each otherplanned
Earned $100k+planned
The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

  • Road to Empress I earned 29.1% of the estimated first-year money of the 73 Historical + RPG launches.
  • Historical is led by Manor Lords, with 63.2% of its money.
  • RPG is led by Path of Exile 2, with 18.0% of its money.
  • No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Historical + RPG holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout; too few to tell in Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Historical + RPG through every lens, all prices
This pairBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view46 of 73 launchesWithout the breakout72 of 73 launchesLast 18 months24 of 73 launches
Launches counted7310 hits468 hits729 hits242 hits
Earned $100k+13.7 in 10017.4 in 10012.5 in 1002 of 24too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings$4,372top tenth $149,556+$5,365$4,372$3,162
Chance against standardthe base+27.0%3.7 more in 100-8.7%1.2 fewer in 100-39.2%5.4 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standardthe base+22.7%$993 more; too few to tell0.0%no change-27.7%$1,210 less; too few to tell
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsToo few to tell
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Historical and RPG, 12 to 36 months old: 73 launches.

Launches counted
7310 hits
Earned $100k+
13.7 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$4,372top tenth $149,556+
Chance against standard
the base
Typical against standard
the base
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 27 of 73 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
468 hits
Earned $100k+
17.4 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$5,365
Chance against standard
+27.0%3.7 more in 100
Typical against standard
+22.7%$993 more; too few to tell
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Road to Empress I (29.1% of the money): 72 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted
729 hits
Earned $100k+
12.5 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$4,372
Chance against standard
-8.7%1.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 24 of 73.

Launches counted
242 hits
Earned $100k+
2 of 24too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings
$3,162
Chance against standard
-39.2%5.4 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard
-27.7%$1,210 less; too few to tell
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged both Historical and RPG, 12 to 36 months old: 73 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 27 of 73 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Road to Empress I (29.1% of the money): 72 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 24 of 73.

Historical is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money. It holds in West-facing view and Last 18 months.

Historical through every lens, all prices
HistoricalBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view378 of 425 launchesWithout the breakout424 of 425 launchesLast 18 months106 of 425 launches
Launches counted42553 hits37847 hits42452 hits10612 hits
Earned $100k+12.5 in 10012.4 in 10012.3 in 10011.3 in 100
Typical first-year earnings$2,124top tenth $185,560+$2,054$2,124$2,054
Chance against standardthe base-0.3%no change-1.7%0.2 fewer in 100-9.2%1.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standardthe base-3.3%$70 less0.0%no change-3.3%$70 less
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsMoves the answerHolds
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Historical, 12 to 36 months old: 425 launches.

Launches counted
42553 hits
Earned $100k+
12.5 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$2,124top tenth $185,560+
Chance against standard
the base
Typical against standard
the base
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 47 of 425 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
37847 hits
Earned $100k+
12.4 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$2,054
Chance against standard
-0.3%no change
Typical against standard
-3.3%$70 less
Without the breakoutMoves the answer

Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (63.2% of the money): 424 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted
42452 hits
Earned $100k+
12.3 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$2,124
Chance against standard
-1.7%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 106 of 425.

Launches counted
10612 hits
Earned $100k+
11.3 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$2,054
Chance against standard
-9.2%1.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-3.3%$70 less
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged Historical, 12 to 36 months old: 425 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 47 of 425 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (63.2% of the money): 424 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 106 of 425.

RPG is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

RPG through every lens, all prices
RPGBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view3,132 of 3,723 launchesWithout the breakout3,722 of 3,723 launchesLast 18 months1,023 of 3,723 launches
Launches counted3,723297 hits3,132251 hits3,722296 hits1,02385 hits
Earned $100k+8.0 in 1001 in 138.0 in 1001 in 128.0 in 1001 in 138.3 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings$701top tenth $63,965+$766$701$893
Chance against standardthe base+0.5%no change-0.3%no change+4.2%0.3 more in 100
Typical against standardthe base+9.3%$65 more0.0%no change+27.4%$192 more
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsMoves the answer
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged RPG, 12 to 36 months old: 3,723 launches.

Launches counted
3,723297 hits
Earned $100k+
8.0 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings
$701top tenth $63,965+
Chance against standard
the base
Typical against standard
the base
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 591 of 3,723 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
3,132251 hits
Earned $100k+
8.0 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings
$766
Chance against standard
+0.5%no change
Typical against standard
+9.3%$65 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Path of Exile 2 (18.0% of the money): 3,722 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted
3,722296 hits
Earned $100k+
8.0 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings
$701
Chance against standard
-0.3%no change
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,023 of 3,723.

Launches counted
1,02385 hits
Earned $100k+
8.3 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings
$893
Chance against standard
+4.2%0.3 more in 100
Typical against standard
+27.4%$192 more
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged RPG, 12 to 36 months old: 3,723 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 591 of 3,723 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Path of Exile 2 (18.0% of the money): 3,722 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,023 of 3,723.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Historical + RPG moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.

Releases

Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.