Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / Historical + Simulation
Historical + Simulation
Games tagged both Historical and Simulation: 102 indie paid launches, 26 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Historical + Simulation priced $10 to $20.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Historical + Simulation beats both its tags: 9 of its 25 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 22.7 in 100 for Historical and 21.5 in 100 for Simulation.
Small sample: 25 launches, 9 hits.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 25 games tagged both Historical and Simulation priced $10 to $20. 36.0 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 18.1 for Historical-only games and 21.1 for Simulation-only games, so games with both tags did better than games with either tag alone.
Both: 25 games priced $10 to $20; 36.0 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $54,243.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 25 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Historical + Simulation holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view95 of 102 launches | Without the breakout101 of 102 launches | Last 18 months57 of 102 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 10226 hits | 9526 hits | 10125 hits | 5717 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 25.5 in 100 | 27.4 in 100 | 24.8 in 100 | 29.8 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $5,631top tenth $523,939+ | $5,737 | $5,178 | $4,859 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | +7.5%1.9 more in 100 | -2.7%0.7 fewer in 100 | +16.9%4.3 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +1.9%$106 more | -8.0%$453 less | -13.7%$772 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Historical and Simulation, 6 to 30 months old: 102 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 7 of 102 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (63.0% of the money): 101 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 57 of 102.
Historical holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Historical | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view395 of 450 launches | Without the breakout449 of 450 launches | Last 18 months228 of 450 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 45057 hits | 39552 hits | 44956 hits | 22828 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 12.7 in 100 | 13.2 in 100 | 12.5 in 100 | 12.3 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $2,223top tenth $226,743+ | $2,223 | $2,183 | $1,920 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | +3.9%0.5 more in 100 | -1.6%0.2 fewer in 100 | -3.1%0.4 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | -1.8%$40 less | -13.6%$303 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Historical, 6 to 30 months old: 450 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 55 of 450 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (49.8% of the money): 449 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 228 of 450.
Simulation holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Simulation | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view5,023 of 5,285 launches | Without the breakout5,284 of 5,285 launches | Last 18 months3,070 of 5,285 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 5,285435 hits | 5,023411 hits | 5,284434 hits | 3,070225 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 8.2 in 1001 in 12 | 8.2 in 1001 in 12 | 8.2 in 1001 in 12 | 7.3 in 1001 in 14 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $982top tenth $69,988+ | $1,012 | $982 | $971 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -11.0%0.9 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +3.1%$30 more | 0.0%no change | -1.1%$11 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Simulation, 6 to 30 months old: 5,285 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 262 of 5,285 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Schedule I (15.4% of the money): 5,284 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 3,070 of 5,285.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Historical + Simulation moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.