Niche

Historical + Top-Down

Games tagged both Historical and Top-Down: 50 indie paid launches, 5 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,758 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 2 Nov 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 230 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2021 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,758 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing Historical + Top-Down priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is about level with Historical and beats Top-Down; priced $10 to $20 it is too small to compare with Historical and is too small to compare with Top-Down.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Historical + Top-Down is too small to compare with Historical and is too small to compare with Top-Down: 3 of its 11 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 26.0 in 100 for Historical and 17.4 in 100 for Top-Down.

Small sample: 11 launches, 3 hits.

TIEA tie

Tag onemood tagHistorical

26.0in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds26.0 in 100

Typical earnings$23,748

Launches104 / 27 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairHistorical + Top-Down

3 of 11launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds3 of 11 launches

$1k+11 of 11 launches

$10k+5 of 11 launches

Launches11 / 3 hits

Expected20.5 in 100

TIETied

Tag twomood tagTop-Down

17.4in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds17.4 in 100

Typical earnings$9,694

Launches190 / 33 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.5 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $11,233, from 4,337 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Historical is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices50 in pair Under $517 in pair $5 to $1019 in pair $10 to $2011 in pair$20 to $403: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 11 games tagged both Historical and Top-Down priced $10 to $20. 3 of 11 of them earned $100k+, against 25.8 in 100 for Historical-only games and 16.8 in 100 for Top-Down-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Historical alone and is too small to compare with Top-Down alone.

Both: 11 games priced $10 to $20; 3 of 11 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 11 of 11 launches · $10k+ 5 of 11 launches · $100k+ 3 of 11 launches.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 11 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Three Kingdoms Mushoudenleads this pair38.2%

PairThree Kingdoms Mushouden38.2%

HistoricalManor Lords59.8%

Top-DownDeep Rock Galactic: Survivor18.3%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 1 of 2, 1 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: too few to tell. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: not run yet.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Historical + Top-Down

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Three Kingdoms Mushouden earned 38.2% of the estimated first-year money of the 50 Historical + Top-Down launches.
Historical is led by Manor Lords, with 59.8% of its money.
Top-Down is led by Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor, with 18.3% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Historical + Top-Down holds in Without the breakout; too few to tell in West-facing view. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Historical + Top-Down through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view45 of 50 launches	Without the breakout49 of 50 launches	Last 18 monthstoo few
Launches counted	505 hits	454 hits	494 hits	too few
Earned $100k+	10.0 in 100	4 of 45too few for a rate	4 of 49too few for a rate	too few
Chance of $10k+	14 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 58 in 100	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	too few
Chance against standard	the base	-11.1%1.1 fewer in 100; too few to tell	-18.4%1.8 fewer in 100	too few
Typical against standard	the base	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	too few
Does it hold?	The base view	Too few to tell	Holds	Not run yet

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Historical and Top-Down, 12 to 36 months old: 50 launches.

Launches counted: 505 hits
Earned $100k+: 10.0 in 100
Chance of $10k+: 14 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 58 in 100
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewToo few to tell

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 5 of 50 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 454 hits
Earned $100k+: 4 of 45too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -11.1%1.1 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Three Kingdoms Mushouden (38.2% of the money): 49 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 494 hits
Earned $100k+: 4 of 49too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -18.4%1.8 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Last 18 monthsNot run yet

Too few launches to run this lens.

Launches counted: too few
Earned $100k+: too few
Chance of $10k+: too few
Chance against standard: too few
Typical against standard: too few

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Historical and Top-Down, 12 to 36 months old: 50 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 5 of 50 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Three Kingdoms Mushouden (38.2% of the money): 49 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Too few launches to run this lens.

Historical is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money. It holds in West-facing view and Last 18 months.

Historical through every lens, all prices
Historical	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view379 of 429 launches	Without the breakout428 of 429 launches	Last 18 months103 of 429 launches
Launches counted	42955 hits	37949 hits	42854 hits	10311 hits
Earned $100k+	12.8 in 100	12.9 in 100	12.6 in 100	10.7 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$2,231top tenth $198,854+	$2,165	$2,231	$1,743
Chance against standard	the base	+0.8%0.1 more in 100	-1.6%0.2 fewer in 100	-16.7%2.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-3.0%$66 less	0.0%no change	-21.9%$488 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Moves the answer	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Historical, 12 to 36 months old: 429 launches.

Launches counted: 42955 hits
Earned $100k+: 12.8 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,231top tenth $198,854+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 50 of 429 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 37949 hits
Earned $100k+: 12.9 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,165
Chance against standard: +0.8%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard: -3.0%$66 less

Without the breakoutMoves the answer

Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (59.8% of the money): 428 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 42854 hits
Earned $100k+: 12.6 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,231
Chance against standard: -1.6%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 103 of 429.

Launches counted: 10311 hits
Earned $100k+: 10.7 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,743
Chance against standard: -16.7%2.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -21.9%$488 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Historical, 12 to 36 months old: 429 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 50 of 429 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (59.8% of the money): 428 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 103 of 429.

Top-Down is audience split +1: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would, and 1 more lens too. It holds in Without the breakout.

Top-Down through every lens, all prices
Top-Down	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,803 of 1,885 launches	Without the breakout1,884 of 1,885 launches	Last 18 months496 of 1,885 launches
Launches counted	1,88559 hits	1,80352 hits	1,88458 hits	49615 hits
Earned $100k+	3.1 in 1001 in 32	2.9 in 1001 in 35	3.1 in 1001 in 32	3.0 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings	$270top tenth $10,036+	$278	$270	$182
Chance against standard	the base	-7.9%0.2 fewer in 100	-1.6%0.1 fewer in 100	-3.4%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+3.0%$8 more	0.0%no change	-32.6%$88 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Top-Down, 12 to 36 months old: 1,885 launches.

Launches counted: 1,88559 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.1 in 1001 in 32
Typical first-year earnings: $270top tenth $10,036+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 82 of 1,885 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,80352 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.9 in 1001 in 35
Typical first-year earnings: $278
Chance against standard: -7.9%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +3.0%$8 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor (18.3% of the money): 1,884 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1,88458 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.1 in 1001 in 32
Typical first-year earnings: $270
Chance against standard: -1.6%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 496 of 1,885.

Launches counted: 49615 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.0 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings: $182
Chance against standard: -3.4%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -32.6%$88 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Top-Down, 12 to 36 months old: 1,885 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 82 of 1,885 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor (18.3% of the money): 1,884 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 496 of 1,885.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Historical + Top-Down moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.