Niche

Historical + War

Games tagged both Historical and War: 48 indie paid launches, 8 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,291 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 238 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2020 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,291 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Last 18 months

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Only launches from the last 18 months. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 Last 18 months Reset

Showing Historical + War priced $10 to $20, last 18 months. Lens figures exist at all prices only, so inside a price band the page shows the standard figures. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats both its tags; priced $10 to $20 it is too small to compare with Historical and is too small to compare with War.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Historical + War is too small to compare with Historical and is too small to compare with War: 3 of its 10 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 26.0 in 100 for Historical and 20.0 in 100 for War.

Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this band uses the standard figures. Small sample: 10 launches, 3 hits.

TIEA tie

Tag onemood tagHistorical

26.0in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds26.0 in 100

Typical earnings$24,544

Launches104 / 27 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairHistorical + War

3 of 10launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds3 of 10 launches

$1k+10 of 10 launches

$10k+7 of 10 launches

Launches10 / 3 hits

Expected20.4 in 100

TIETied

Tag twoWar

20.0in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds20.0 in 100

$1k+87 in 100

$10k+57 in 100

Launches60 / 12 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.4 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $10,978, from 4,304 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Historical is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices48 in pairUnder $59: too few$5 to $1013 in pair $10 to $2010 in pair $20 to $4016 in pair

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 10 games tagged both Historical and War priced $10 to $20. 3 of 10 of them earned $100k+, against 25.5 in 100 for Historical-only games and 18.0 in 100 for War-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Historical alone and is too small to compare with War alone.

Both: 10 games priced $10 to $20; 3 of 10 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 10 of 10 launches · $10k+ 7 of 10 launches · $100k+ 3 of 10 launches.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 10 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet. The last 18 months lens is not computed for the outer parts, so this diagram uses the standard figures.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Three Kingdoms Mushoudenleads this pair24.0%

PairThree Kingdoms Mushouden24.0%

HistoricalManor Lords63.2%

WarTempest Rising29.6%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 2 of 3, 1 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Historical + War

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Three Kingdoms Mushouden earned 24.0% of the estimated first-year money of the 48 Historical + War launches.
Historical is led by Manor Lords, with 63.2% of its money.
War is led by Tempest Rising, with 29.6% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Historical + War holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout; too few to tell in Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Historical + War through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view42 of 48 launches	Without the breakout47 of 48 launches	Last 18 months19 of 48 launches
Launches counted	488 hits	426 hits	477 hits	193 hits
Earned $100k+	16.7 in 100	14.3 in 100	14.9 in 100	3 of 19too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+	42 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 83 in 100	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	-14.3%2.4 fewer in 100	-10.6%1.8 fewer in 100	-5.3%0.9 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Historical and War, 12 to 36 months old: 48 launches.

Launches counted: 488 hits
Earned $100k+: 16.7 in 100
Chance of $10k+: 42 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 83 in 100
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 6 of 48 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 426 hits
Earned $100k+: 14.3 in 100
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -14.3%2.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Three Kingdoms Mushouden (24.0% of the money): 47 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 477 hits
Earned $100k+: 14.9 in 100
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -10.6%1.8 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 19 of 48.

Launches counted: 193 hits
Earned $100k+: 3 of 19too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -5.3%0.9 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Historical and War, 12 to 36 months old: 48 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 6 of 48 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Three Kingdoms Mushouden (24.0% of the money): 47 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 19 of 48.

Historical is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money. It holds in West-facing view and Last 18 months.

Historical through every lens, all prices
Historical	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view378 of 425 launches	Without the breakout424 of 425 launches	Last 18 months106 of 425 launches
Launches counted	42553 hits	37847 hits	42452 hits	10612 hits
Earned $100k+	12.5 in 100	12.4 in 100	12.3 in 100	11.3 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$2,124top tenth $185,560+	$2,054	$2,124	$2,054
Chance against standard	the base	-0.3%no change	-1.7%0.2 fewer in 100	-9.2%1.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-3.3%$70 less	0.0%no change	-3.3%$70 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Moves the answer	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Historical, 12 to 36 months old: 425 launches.

Launches counted: 42553 hits
Earned $100k+: 12.5 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,124top tenth $185,560+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 47 of 425 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 37847 hits
Earned $100k+: 12.4 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,054
Chance against standard: -0.3%no change
Typical against standard: -3.3%$70 less

Without the breakoutMoves the answer

Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (63.2% of the money): 424 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 42452 hits
Earned $100k+: 12.3 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,124
Chance against standard: -1.7%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 106 of 425.

Launches counted: 10612 hits
Earned $100k+: 11.3 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,054
Chance against standard: -9.2%1.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -3.3%$70 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Historical, 12 to 36 months old: 425 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 47 of 425 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (63.2% of the money): 424 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 106 of 425.

War holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

War through every lens, all prices
War	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view273 of 300 launches	Without the breakout299 of 300 launches	Last 18 months88 of 300 launches
Launches counted	30034 hits	27331 hits	29933 hits	8813 hits
Earned $100k+	11.3 in 100	11.4 in 100	11.0 in 100	14.8 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$1,516top tenth $141,044+	$1,624	$1,516	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	+0.2%no change	-2.6%0.3 fewer in 100	+30.3%3.4 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+7.1%$108 more	0.0%no change	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged War, 12 to 36 months old: 300 launches.

Launches counted: 30034 hits
Earned $100k+: 11.3 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,516top tenth $141,044+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 27 of 300 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 27331 hits
Earned $100k+: 11.4 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,624
Chance against standard: +0.2%no change
Typical against standard: +7.1%$108 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Tempest Rising (29.6% of the money): 299 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 29933 hits
Earned $100k+: 11.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,516
Chance against standard: -2.6%0.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 88 of 300.

Launches counted: 8813 hits
Earned $100k+: 14.8 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: +30.3%3.4 more in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged War, 12 to 36 months old: 300 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 27 of 300 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Tempest Rising (29.6% of the money): 299 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 88 of 300.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Historical + War moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.