Niche

Historical + War

Games tagged both Historical and War: 47 indie paid launches, 8 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,280 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price $20 to $40

All prices1 in 17 hit $100k+Under $51 in 219 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 30 hit $100k+$10 to $2018 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4040 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,280 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 30+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$20 to $40 30+ launches Reset

Showing Historical + War priced $20 to $40, hiding samples under 30 launches. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats both its tags; priced $20 to $40 it has too few launches to read.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$20 to $40

16 launches, under your minimum sample of 30.

Pick another price band, or lower the minimum sample.

2NDRunner-up

Tag onemood tagHistorical

39.5in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds39.5 in 100

Typical earnings$49,820

Launches43 / 17 hits

Pairno reading

--No reading

This pairHistorical + War

--too few
to read

Odds--

Typical earnings--

Launches16

16 launches, under your minimum sample of 30.

1STWinner

Tag twoWar

48.6in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds48.6 in 100

Typical earnings$57,685

Launches35 / 17 hits

Pairno reading

All indie launches $20 to $40: 40.0 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $52,228, from 1,224 launches.each block is 2.5 in 100 all indie at $20 to $40Historical is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 40.0 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices47 in pairUnder $59: too few$5 to $1013 in pair$10 to $209: too few$20 to $4016 in pair

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 16 games tagged both Historical and War priced $20 to $40. 5 of 16 of them earned $100k+, against 12 of 27 for Historical-only games and 12 of 19 for War-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Historical alone and is too small to compare with War alone.

Both: 16 games priced $20 to $40; 5 of 16 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $32,442.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 16 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Three Kingdoms Mushoudenleads this pair24.0%

PairThree Kingdoms Mushouden24.0%

HistoricalManor Lords61.9%

WarTempest Rising29.1%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 2 of 3, 1 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Historical + War

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Three Kingdoms Mushouden earned 24.0% of the estimated first-year money of the 47 Historical + War launches.
Historical is led by Manor Lords, with 61.9% of its money.
War is led by Tempest Rising, with 29.1% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Historical + War holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout; too few to tell in Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Historical + War through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view41 of 47 launches	Without the breakout46 of 47 launches	Last 18 months18 of 47 launches
Launches counted	478 hits	416 hits	467 hits	183 hits
Earned $100k+	17.0 in 100	14.6 in 100	15.2 in 100	3 of 18too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings	$5,066top tenth $307,824+	$5,066	$5,066	$5,766
Chance against standard	the base	-14.0%2.4 fewer in 100	-10.6%1.8 fewer in 100	-2.1%0.4 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	0.0%no change; too few to tell	0.0%no change	+13.8%$700 more; too few to tell
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Historical and War, 12 to 36 months old: 47 launches.

Launches counted: 478 hits
Earned $100k+: 17.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $5,066top tenth $307,824+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 6 of 47 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 416 hits
Earned $100k+: 14.6 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $5,066
Chance against standard: -14.0%2.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change; too few to tell

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Three Kingdoms Mushouden (24.0% of the money): 46 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 467 hits
Earned $100k+: 15.2 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $5,066
Chance against standard: -10.6%1.8 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 18 of 47.

Launches counted: 183 hits
Earned $100k+: 3 of 18too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $5,766
Chance against standard: -2.1%0.4 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: +13.8%$700 more; too few to tell

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Historical and War, 12 to 36 months old: 47 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 6 of 47 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Three Kingdoms Mushouden (24.0% of the money): 46 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 18 of 47.

Historical is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money. It holds in West-facing view and Last 18 months.

Historical through every lens, all prices
Historical	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view377 of 424 launches	Without the breakout423 of 424 launches	Last 18 months105 of 424 launches
Launches counted	42449 hits	37743 hits	42348 hits	10511 hits
Earned $100k+	11.6 in 100	11.4 in 100	11.3 in 100	10.5 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$2,109top tenth $144,682+	$1,887	$2,008	$2,008
Chance against standard	the base	-1.3%0.2 fewer in 100	-1.8%0.2 fewer in 100	-9.3%1.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-10.5%$222 less	-4.8%$101 less	-4.8%$101 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Moves the answer	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Historical, 12 to 36 months old: 424 launches.

Launches counted: 42449 hits
Earned $100k+: 11.6 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,109top tenth $144,682+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 47 of 424 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 37743 hits
Earned $100k+: 11.4 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,887
Chance against standard: -1.3%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -10.5%$222 less

Without the breakoutMoves the answer

Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (61.9% of the money): 423 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 42348 hits
Earned $100k+: 11.3 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,008
Chance against standard: -1.8%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -4.8%$101 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 105 of 424.

Launches counted: 10511 hits
Earned $100k+: 10.5 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,008
Chance against standard: -9.3%1.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -4.8%$101 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Historical, 12 to 36 months old: 424 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 47 of 424 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (61.9% of the money): 423 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 105 of 424.

War holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

War through every lens, all prices
War	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view271 of 298 launches	Without the breakout297 of 298 launches	Last 18 months86 of 298 launches
Launches counted	29832 hits	27129 hits	29731 hits	8611 hits
Earned $100k+	10.7 in 100	10.7 in 100	10.4 in 100	12.8 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$1,339top tenth $114,633+	$1,383	$1,255	$1,532
Chance against standard	the base	-0.3%no change	-2.8%0.3 fewer in 100	+19.1%2.1 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+3.3%$44 more	-6.3%$84 less	+14.4%$193 more; too few to tell
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged War, 12 to 36 months old: 298 launches.

Launches counted: 29832 hits
Earned $100k+: 10.7 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,339top tenth $114,633+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 27 of 298 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 27129 hits
Earned $100k+: 10.7 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,383
Chance against standard: -0.3%no change
Typical against standard: +3.3%$44 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Tempest Rising (29.1% of the money): 297 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 29731 hits
Earned $100k+: 10.4 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,255
Chance against standard: -2.8%0.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -6.3%$84 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 86 of 298.

Launches counted: 8611 hits
Earned $100k+: 12.8 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,532
Chance against standard: +19.1%2.1 more in 100
Typical against standard: +14.4%$193 more; too few to tell

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged War, 12 to 36 months old: 298 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 27 of 298 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Tempest Rising (29.1% of the money): 297 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 86 of 298.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Historical + War moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.