Comparables
LeadersTop earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewTicker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / Idler + Minimalist
Idler + Minimalist
Games tagged both Idler and Minimalist: 91 indie paid launches, 5 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Idler + Minimalist priced under $5, hiding samples under 30 launches. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is level with Idler and beats Minimalist; priced under $5 it beats both its tags.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Idler + Minimalist beats both its tags: 2.7 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced under $5, against 2.2 in 100 for Idler and 0.6 in 100 for Minimalist.
That is 1 in 37, about 5.4 times the 0.5 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 75 games tagged both Idler and Minimalist priced under $5. 2.7 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 2.2 for Idler-only games and 0.4 for Minimalist-only games, so games with both tags did better than games with either tag alone.
Both: 75 games priced under $5; 2.7 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 37), typical first-year earnings $463.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 75 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Idler + Minimalist holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view85 of 91 launches | Without the breakout90 of 91 launches | Last 18 months69 of 91 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 915 hits | 855 hits | 904 hits | 694 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 5.5 in 1001 in 18 | 5.9 in 1001 in 17 | 4.4 in 1001 in 23 | 5.8 in 1001 in 17 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $646top tenth $33,144+ | $646 | $646 | $662 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | +7.3%0.4 more in 100 | -20.0%1.1 fewer in 100 | +5.5%0.3 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | +2.5%$16 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Idler and Minimalist, 6 to 30 months old: 91 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 6 of 91 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Cast n Chill (54.0% of the money): 90 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 69 of 91.
Idler holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Idler | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,123 of 1,212 launches | Without the breakout1,211 of 1,212 launches | Last 18 months829 of 1,212 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,21267 hits | 1,12358 hits | 1,21166 hits | 82946 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 5.5 in 1001 in 18 | 5.2 in 1001 in 19 | 5.5 in 1001 in 18 | 5.5 in 1001 in 18 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $707top tenth $34,996+ | $708 | $707 | $707 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -5.5%0.3 fewer in 100 | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +0.1%$1 more | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Idler, 6 to 30 months old: 1,212 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 89 of 1,212 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Spirit City: Lofi Sessions (9.5% of the money): 1,211 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 829 of 1,212.
Minimalist holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Minimalist | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,171 of 1,203 launches | Without the breakout1,202 of 1,203 launches | Last 18 months683 of 1,203 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,20324 hits | 1,17124 hits | 1,20223 hits | 68313 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 2.0 in 1001 in 50 | 2.0 in 1001 in 50 | 1.9 in 1001 in 53 | 1.9 in 1001 in 53 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $202top tenth $5,558+ | $202 | $202 | $182 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | -5.0%0.1 fewer in 100 | -5.0%0.1 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -9.9%$20 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Minimalist, 6 to 30 months old: 1,203 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 32 of 1,203 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Cast n Chill (18.5% of the money): 1,202 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 683 of 1,203.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Idler + Minimalist moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.