Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / Incremental + Simulation
Incremental + Simulation
Games tagged both Incremental and Simulation: 312 indie paid launches, 9 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Incremental + Simulation priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is about level with Incremental and trails Simulation; priced $10 to $20 it is too small to compare with Incremental and is too small to compare with Simulation.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Incremental + Simulation is too small to compare with Incremental and is too small to compare with Simulation: 1 of its 13 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 4 of 38 launches for Incremental and 23.8 in 100 for Simulation.
Small sample: 13 launches, 1 hits.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 13 games tagged both Incremental and Simulation priced $10 to $20. 1 of 13 of them earned $100k+, against 3 of 25 for Incremental-only games and 24.0 in 100 for Simulation-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Incremental alone and is too small to compare with Simulation alone.
Both: 13 games priced $10 to $20; 1 of 13 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 6 of 13 launches · $10k+ 2 of 13 launches · $100k+ 1 of 13 launches.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 13 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Incremental + Simulation holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view296 of 312 launches | Without the breakout311 of 312 launches | Last 18 months124 of 312 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 3129 hits | 2969 hits | 3118 hits | 1243 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 2.9 in 1001 in 35 | 3.0 in 1001 in 33 | 2.6 in 1001 in 39 | 3 of 124too few for a rate |
| Typical first-year earnings | $375top tenth $32,056+ | $428 | $375 | $428 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +5.4%0.2 more in 100 | -10.8%0.3 fewer in 100 | -16.1%0.5 fewer in 100; too few to tell |
| Typical against standard | the base | +14.1%$53 more | 0.0%no change | +14.1%$53 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Incremental and Simulation, 12 to 36 months old: 312 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 16 of 312 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Outpath (16.7% of the money): 311 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 124 of 312.
Incremental holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| Incremental | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view977 of 1,070 launches | Without the breakout1,069 of 1,070 launches | Last 18 months393 of 1,070 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,07023 hits | 97721 hits | 1,06922 hits | 39312 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 2.1 in 1001 in 47 | 2.1 in 1001 in 47 | 2.1 in 1001 in 49 | 3.1 in 1001 in 33 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $268top tenth $12,346+ | $278 | $268 | $249 |
| Chance against standard | the base | 0.0%no change | -4.3%0.1 fewer in 100 | +42.1%0.9 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +3.7%$10 more | 0.0%no change | -7.1%$19 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Incremental, 12 to 36 months old: 1,070 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 93 of 1,070 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, (the) Gnorp Apologue (7.5% of the money): 1,069 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 393 of 1,070.
Simulation holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| Simulation | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view4,191 of 4,442 launches | Without the breakout4,441 of 4,442 launches | Last 18 months1,386 of 4,442 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 4,442408 hits | 4,191389 hits | 4,441407 hits | 1,386133 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 9.2 in 1001 in 11 | 9.3 in 1001 in 11 | 9.2 in 1001 in 11 | 9.6 in 1001 in 10 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $929top tenth $86,074+ | $1,011 | $928 | $1,011 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +1.1%0.1 more in 100 | -0.2%no change | +4.5%0.4 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +8.8%$82 more | -0.1%$1 less | +8.8%$82 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Simulation, 12 to 36 months old: 4,442 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 251 of 4,442 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Schedule I (17.9% of the money): 4,441 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,386 of 4,442.
A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Incremental + Simulation moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
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