Niche

Magic + Medieval

Games tagged both Magic and Medieval: 63 indie paid launches, 3 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,758 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 2 Nov 2026. How it is measured.

Price Under $5

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 230 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2021 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,758 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

Under $5

Showing Magic + Medieval priced under $5.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?Under $5

Magic + Medieval is too small to compare with Magic and is too small to compare with Medieval: 1 of its 27 launches earned $100k+ priced under $5, against 2 of 235 launches for Magic and 1 of 293 launches for Medieval.

Small sample: 27 launches, 1 hits.

TIEA tie

Tag oneMagic

2 of 235launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds2 of 235 launches

Typical earnings$145

Launches235 / 2 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairMagic + Medieval

1 of 27launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds1 of 27 launches

$1k+5 of 27 launches

$10k+3 of 27 launches

Launches27 / 1 hits

Expected0.4 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twoMedieval

1 of 293launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds1 of 293 launches

Typical earnings$145

Launches293 / 1 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches under $5: 0.4 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 230), typical $162, from 14,050 launches.each block is 0.5 in 100 all indie at under $5

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices63 in pair Under $527 in pair $5 to $1025 in pair$10 to $208: too few$20 to $403: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 27 games tagged both Magic and Medieval priced under $5. 1 of 27 of them earned $100k+, against 1 of 208 for Magic-only games and 0 of 266 for Medieval-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Magic alone and is too small to compare with Medieval alone.

Both: 27 games priced under $5; 1 of 27 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 5 of 27 launches · $10k+ 3 of 27 launches · $100k+ 1 of 27 launches.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 27 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Mage Arenaleads this pair65.6%

PairMage Arena65.6%

MagicSouth of Midnight17.1%

MedievalBellwright17.0%

CheckOne game over half?yes

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: too few to tell. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Magic + Medieval

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Mage Arena earned 65.6% of the estimated first-year money of the 63 Magic + Medieval launches.
Magic is led by South of Midnight, with 17.1% of its money.
Medieval is led by Bellwright, with 17.0% of its money.
One game holds over half of this pair's money: read every figure here as that game's story.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Magic + Medieval is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money.

Magic + Medieval through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view60 of 63 launches	Without the breakout62 of 63 launches	Last 18 months18 of 63 launches
Launches counted	633 hits	603 hits	622 hits	181 hits
Earned $100k+	3 of 63too few for a rate	3 of 60too few for a rate	2 of 62too few for a rate	1 of 18too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+	13 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 38 in 100	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	+5.0%0.2 more in 100; too few to tell	-32.3%1.5 fewer in 100	+16.7%0.8 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Too few to tell	Moves the answer	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Magic and Medieval, 12 to 36 months old: 63 launches.

Launches counted: 633 hits
Earned $100k+: 3 of 63too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: 13 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 38 in 100
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewToo few to tell

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 3 of 63 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 603 hits
Earned $100k+: 3 of 60too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: +5.0%0.2 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Without the breakoutMoves the answer

Drops the single biggest earner, Mage Arena (65.6% of the money): 62 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 622 hits
Earned $100k+: 2 of 62too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -32.3%1.5 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 18 of 63.

Launches counted: 181 hits
Earned $100k+: 1 of 18too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: +16.7%0.8 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Magic and Medieval, 12 to 36 months old: 63 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 3 of 63 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Mage Arena (65.6% of the money): 62 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 18 of 63.

Magic is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Magic through every lens, all prices
Magic	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view521 of 555 launches	Without the breakout554 of 555 launches	Last 18 months145 of 555 launches
Launches counted	55530 hits	52129 hits	55429 hits	14510 hits
Earned $100k+	5.4 in 1001 in 19	5.6 in 1001 in 18	5.2 in 1001 in 19	6.9 in 1001 in 15
Typical first-year earnings	$715top tenth $28,017+	$767	$715	$1,061
Chance against standard	the base	+3.0%0.2 more in 100	-3.2%0.2 fewer in 100	+27.6%1.5 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+7.3%$52 more	0.0%no change	+48.4%$346 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Magic, 12 to 36 months old: 555 launches.

Launches counted: 55530 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.4 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings: $715top tenth $28,017+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 34 of 555 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 52129 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.6 in 1001 in 18
Typical first-year earnings: $767
Chance against standard: +3.0%0.2 more in 100
Typical against standard: +7.3%$52 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, South of Midnight (17.1% of the money): 554 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 55429 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.2 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings: $715
Chance against standard: -3.2%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 145 of 555.

Launches counted: 14510 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.9 in 1001 in 15
Typical first-year earnings: $1,061
Chance against standard: +27.6%1.5 more in 100
Typical against standard: +48.4%$346 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Magic, 12 to 36 months old: 555 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 34 of 555 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, South of Midnight (17.1% of the money): 554 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 145 of 555.

Medieval holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Medieval through every lens, all prices
Medieval	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view574 of 616 launches	Without the breakout615 of 616 launches	Last 18 months180 of 616 launches
Launches counted	61648 hits	57447 hits	61547 hits	18018 hits
Earned $100k+	7.8 in 1001 in 13	8.2 in 1001 in 12	7.6 in 1001 in 13	10.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$575top tenth $72,373+	$575	$574	$643
Chance against standard	the base	+5.1%0.4 more in 100	-1.9%0.1 fewer in 100	+28.3%2.2 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	0.0%no change	-0.2%$1 less	+11.8%$68 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Medieval, 12 to 36 months old: 616 launches.

Launches counted: 61648 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.8 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $575top tenth $72,373+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 42 of 616 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 57447 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.2 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $575
Chance against standard: +5.1%0.4 more in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Bellwright (17.0% of the money): 615 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 61547 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.6 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $574
Chance against standard: -1.9%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -0.2%$1 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 180 of 616.

Launches counted: 18018 hits
Earned $100k+: 10.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $643
Chance against standard: +28.3%2.2 more in 100
Typical against standard: +11.8%$68 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Medieval, 12 to 36 months old: 616 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 42 of 616 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Bellwright (17.0% of the money): 615 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 180 of 616.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Magic + Medieval moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.