Niche

Medieval + Visual Novel

Games tagged both Medieval and Visual Novel: 40 indie paid launches, 0 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,291 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price Under $5

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 238 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2020 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,291 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 30+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

Under $5 30+ launches Reset

Showing Medieval + Visual Novel priced under $5, hiding samples under 30 launches. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is too small to compare with Medieval and is too small to compare with Visual Novel; priced under $5 it has too few launches to read.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?Under $5

15 launches, under your minimum sample of 30.

Pick another price band, or lower the minimum sample.

TIEA tie

Tag oneMedieval

1 of 295launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds1 of 295 launches

Typical earnings$142

Launches295 / 1 hits

Pairno reading

--No reading

This pairMedieval + Visual Novel

--too few
to read

Odds--

Typical earnings--

Launches15

15 launches, under your minimum sample of 30.

TIEA tie

Tag twoVisual Novel

3 of 779launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds3 of 779 launches

Typical earnings$318

Launches779 / 3 hits

Pairno reading

All indie launches under $5: 0.4 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 238), typical $158, from 13,785 launches.each block is 0.5 in 100 all indie at under $5

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices40 in pair Under $515 in pair $5 to $1014 in pair$10 to $208: too few$20 to $403: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 15 games tagged both Medieval and Visual Novel priced under $5. 0 of 15 of them earned $100k+, against 1 of 280 for Medieval-only games and 3 of 764 for Visual Novel-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Medieval alone and is too small to compare with Visual Novel alone.

Both: 15 games priced under $5; 0 of 15 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 3 of 15 launches · $10k+ 0 of 15 launches · $100k+ 0 of 15 launches.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 15 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Misericorde Volume Two: White Wool & Snowleads this pair31.8%

PairMisericorde Volume Two: White Wool & Snow31.8%

MedievalBellwright17.3%

Visual NovelSlay the Princess — The Pristine Cut7.1%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 1 of 3, 2 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: too few to tell. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Medieval + Visual Novel

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Misericorde Volume Two: White Wool & Snow earned 31.8% of the estimated first-year money of the 40 Medieval + Visual Novel launches.
Medieval is led by Bellwright, with 17.3% of its money.
Visual Novel is led by Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut, with 7.1% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Medieval + Visual Novel holds in Without the breakout; too few to tell in West-facing view and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Medieval + Visual Novel through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view38 of 40 launches	Without the breakout39 of 40 launches	Last 18 months10 of 40 launches
Launches counted	400 hits	380 hits	390 hits	100 hits
Earned $100k+	0 of 40too few for a rate	0 of 38too few for a rate	0 of 39too few for a rate	0 of 10too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+	15 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 45 in 100	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	0.0%no change; too few to tell	0.0%no change	0.0%no change; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Too few to tell	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Medieval and Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 40 launches.

Launches counted: 400 hits
Earned $100k+: 0 of 40too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: 15 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 45 in 100
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewToo few to tell

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 2 of 40 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 380 hits
Earned $100k+: 0 of 38too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: 0.0%no change; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Misericorde Volume Two: White Wool & Snow (31.8% of the money): 39 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 390 hits
Earned $100k+: 0 of 39too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: 0.0%no change
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 10 of 40.

Launches counted: 100 hits
Earned $100k+: 0 of 10too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: 0.0%no change; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Medieval and Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 40 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 2 of 40 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Misericorde Volume Two: White Wool & Snow (31.8% of the money): 39 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 10 of 40.

Medieval is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Medieval through every lens, all prices
Medieval	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view567 of 609 launches	Without the breakout608 of 609 launches	Last 18 months175 of 609 launches
Launches counted	60950 hits	56749 hits	60849 hits	17521 hits
Earned $100k+	8.2 in 1001 in 12	8.6 in 1001 in 12	8.1 in 1001 in 12	12.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$506top tenth $73,548+	$526	$506	$632
Chance against standard	the base	+5.3%0.4 more in 100	-1.8%0.2 fewer in 100	+46.2%3.8 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+4.0%$20 more	0.0%no change	+24.9%$126 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Medieval, 12 to 36 months old: 609 launches.

Launches counted: 60950 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.2 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $506top tenth $73,548+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 42 of 609 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 56749 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.6 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $526
Chance against standard: +5.3%0.4 more in 100
Typical against standard: +4.0%$20 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Bellwright (17.3% of the money): 608 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 60849 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.1 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $506
Chance against standard: -1.8%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 175 of 609.

Launches counted: 17521 hits
Earned $100k+: 12.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $632
Chance against standard: +46.2%3.8 more in 100
Typical against standard: +24.9%$126 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Medieval, 12 to 36 months old: 609 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 42 of 609 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Bellwright (17.3% of the money): 608 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 175 of 609.

Visual Novel is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Visual Novel through every lens, all prices
Visual Novel	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,641 of 1,872 launches	Without the breakout1,871 of 1,872 launches	Last 18 months534 of 1,872 launches
Launches counted	1,872130 hits	1,64199 hits	1,871129 hits	53441 hits
Earned $100k+	6.9 in 1001 in 14	6.0 in 1001 in 17	6.9 in 1001 in 15	7.7 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings	$1,448top tenth $61,563+	$1,430	$1,445	$1,594
Chance against standard	the base	-13.1%0.9 fewer in 100	-0.7%no change	+10.6%0.7 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-1.2%$18 less	-0.2%$3 less	+10.1%$146 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 1,872 launches.

Launches counted: 1,872130 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.9 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $1,448top tenth $61,563+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 231 of 1,872 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,64199 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.0 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $1,430
Chance against standard: -13.1%0.9 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -1.2%$18 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut (7.1% of the money): 1,871 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1,871129 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.9 in 1001 in 15
Typical first-year earnings: $1,445
Chance against standard: -0.7%no change
Typical against standard: -0.2%$3 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 534 of 1,872.

Launches counted: 53441 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.7 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $1,594
Chance against standard: +10.6%0.7 more in 100
Typical against standard: +10.1%$146 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 1,872 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 231 of 1,872 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut (7.1% of the money): 1,871 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 534 of 1,872.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Medieval + Visual Novel moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.