Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Mystery + Realistic
Games tagged both Mystery and Realistic: 130 indie paid launches, 4 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Mystery + Realistic priced $10 to $20, hiding samples under 100 launches. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair trails both its tags; priced $10 to $20 it has too few launches to read.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
17 launches, under your minimum sample of 100.
Pick another price band, or lower the minimum sample.
17 launches, under your minimum sample of 100.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 17 games tagged both Mystery and Realistic priced $10 to $20. 5.9 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 23.8 for Mystery-only games and 21.0 for Realistic-only games, so games with both tags did worse than games with either tag alone.
Both: 17 games priced $10 to $20; 5.9 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 17), typical first-year earnings $5,261.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 17 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Mystery + Realistic is one-hit market: Without the breakout moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view127 of 130 launches | Without the breakout129 of 130 launches | Last 18 months69 of 130 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1304 hits | 1274 hits | 1293 hits | 692 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 3.1 in 1001 in 32 | 3.1 in 1001 in 32 | 2.3 in 1001 in 43 | 2.9 in 1001 in 34 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,617top tenth $23,784+ | $1,578 | $1,578 | $1,578 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | -25.8%0.8 fewer in 100 | -6.5%0.2 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | -2.4%$39 less | -2.4%$39 less | -2.4%$39 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Moves the answer | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Mystery and Realistic, 6 to 30 months old: 130 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 3 of 130 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Subliminal (38.8% of the money): 129 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 69 of 130.
Mystery holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Mystery | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,293 of 1,381 launches | Without the breakout1,380 of 1,381 launches | Last 18 months791 of 1,381 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,381125 hits | 1,293110 hits | 1,380124 hits | 79161 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 9.1 in 1001 in 11 | 8.5 in 1001 in 12 | 9.0 in 1001 in 11 | 7.7 in 1001 in 13 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,052top tenth $74,317+ | $1,013 | $1,052 | $810 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -6.6%0.6 fewer in 100 | -1.1%0.1 fewer in 100 | -15.4%1.4 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | -3.7%$39 less | 0.0%no change | -23.0%$242 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Mystery, 6 to 30 months old: 1,381 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 88 of 1,381 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Blue Prince (12.8% of the money): 1,380 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 791 of 1,381.
Realistic holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Realistic | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,604 of 1,632 launches | Without the breakout1,631 of 1,632 launches | Last 18 months884 of 1,632 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,632132 hits | 1,604132 hits | 1,631131 hits | 88471 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 8.1 in 1001 in 12 | 8.2 in 1001 in 12 | 8.0 in 1001 in 13 | 8.0 in 1001 in 13 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,131top tenth $53,028+ | $1,133 | $1,113 | $1,052 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | +1.2%0.1 more in 100 | -1.2%0.1 fewer in 100 | -1.2%0.1 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +0.2%$2 more | -1.6%$18 less | -7.0%$79 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Realistic, 6 to 30 months old: 1,632 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 28 of 1,632 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Gray Zone Warfare (21.1% of the money): 1,631 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 884 of 1,632.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Mystery + Realistic moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.