Niche

Mystery + Simulation

Games tagged both Mystery and Simulation: 95 indie paid launches, 8 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,291 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 238 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2020 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,291 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing Mystery + Simulation priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is about level with Mystery and is about level with Simulation; priced $10 to $20 it is too small to compare with Mystery and is too small to compare with Simulation.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Mystery + Simulation is too small to compare with Mystery and is too small to compare with Simulation: 8 of its 21 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 23.5 in 100 for Mystery and 23.8 in 100 for Simulation.

Small sample: 21 launches, 8 hits.

TIEA tie

Tag onemood tagMystery

23.5in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds23.5 in 100

Typical earnings$10,240

Launches251 / 59 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairMystery + Simulation

8 of 21launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds8 of 21 launches

$1k+19 of 21 launches

$10k+12 of 21 launches

Launches21 / 8 hits

Expected20.4 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twoSimulation

23.8in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds23.8 in 100

Typical earnings$15,416

Launches874 / 208 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.4 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $10,978, from 4,304 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Mystery is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices95 in pair Under $551 in pair $5 to $1021 in pair $10 to $2021 in pair$20 to $402: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 21 games tagged both Mystery and Simulation priced $10 to $20. 8 of 21 of them earned $100k+, against 22.2 in 100 for Mystery-only games and 23.4 in 100 for Simulation-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Mystery alone and is too small to compare with Simulation alone.

Both: 21 games priced $10 to $20; 8 of 21 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 19 of 21 launches · $10k+ 12 of 21 launches · $100k+ 8 of 21 launches.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 21 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

The Operatorleads this pair37.8%

PairThe Operator37.8%

MysteryBlue Prince14.2%

SimulationSchedule I17.9%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 2 of 3, 1 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Mystery + Simulation

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

The Operator earned 37.8% of the estimated first-year money of the 95 Mystery + Simulation launches.
Mystery is led by Blue Prince, with 14.2% of its money.
Simulation is led by Schedule I, with 17.9% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Mystery + Simulation holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout; too few to tell in Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Mystery + Simulation through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view88 of 95 launches	Without the breakout94 of 95 launches	Last 18 months32 of 95 launches
Launches counted	958 hits	887 hits	947 hits	322 hits
Earned $100k+	8.4 in 1001 in 12	8.0 in 1001 in 13	7.4 in 1001 in 13	2 of 32too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+	20 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 52 in 100	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	-5.5%0.5 fewer in 100	-11.6%1.0 fewer in 100	-25.8%2.2 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Mystery and Simulation, 12 to 36 months old: 95 launches.

Launches counted: 958 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.4 in 1001 in 12
Chance of $10k+: 20 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 52 in 100
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 7 of 95 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 887 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.0 in 1001 in 13
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -5.5%0.5 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, The Operator (37.8% of the money): 94 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 947 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.4 in 1001 in 13
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -11.6%1.0 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 32 of 95.

Launches counted: 322 hits
Earned $100k+: 2 of 32too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -25.8%2.2 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Mystery and Simulation, 12 to 36 months old: 95 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 7 of 95 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, The Operator (37.8% of the money): 94 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 32 of 95.

Mystery is audience split +1: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would, and 1 more lens too. It holds in Without the breakout.

Mystery through every lens, all prices
Mystery	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,111 of 1,186 launches	Without the breakout1,185 of 1,186 launches	Last 18 months367 of 1,186 launches
Launches counted	1,186108 hits	1,11193 hits	1,185107 hits	36737 hits
Earned $100k+	9.1 in 1001 in 11	8.4 in 1001 in 12	9.0 in 1001 in 11	10.1 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$1,103top tenth $82,094+	$1,071	$1,095	$632
Chance against standard	the base	-8.1%0.7 fewer in 100	-0.8%0.1 fewer in 100	+10.7%1.0 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-2.9%$32 less	-0.7%$8 less	-42.7%$471 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Mystery, 12 to 36 months old: 1,186 launches.

Launches counted: 1,186108 hits
Earned $100k+: 9.1 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings: $1,103top tenth $82,094+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 75 of 1,186 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,11193 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.4 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $1,071
Chance against standard: -8.1%0.7 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -2.9%$32 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Blue Prince (14.2% of the money): 1,185 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1,185107 hits
Earned $100k+: 9.0 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings: $1,095
Chance against standard: -0.8%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -0.7%$8 less

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 367 of 1,186.

Launches counted: 36737 hits
Earned $100k+: 10.1 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $632
Chance against standard: +10.7%1.0 more in 100
Typical against standard: -42.7%$471 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Mystery, 12 to 36 months old: 1,186 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 75 of 1,186 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Blue Prince (14.2% of the money): 1,185 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 367 of 1,186.

Simulation holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Simulation through every lens, all prices
Simulation	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view4,191 of 4,442 launches	Without the breakout4,441 of 4,442 launches	Last 18 months1,386 of 4,442 launches
Launches counted	4,442408 hits	4,191389 hits	4,441407 hits	1,386133 hits
Earned $100k+	9.2 in 1001 in 11	9.3 in 1001 in 11	9.2 in 1001 in 11	9.6 in 1001 in 10
Typical first-year earnings	$929top tenth $86,074+	$1,011	$928	$1,011
Chance against standard	the base	+1.1%0.1 more in 100	-0.2%no change	+4.5%0.4 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+8.8%$82 more	-0.1%$1 less	+8.8%$82 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Simulation, 12 to 36 months old: 4,442 launches.

Launches counted: 4,442408 hits
Earned $100k+: 9.2 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings: $929top tenth $86,074+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 251 of 4,442 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 4,191389 hits
Earned $100k+: 9.3 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings: $1,011
Chance against standard: +1.1%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard: +8.8%$82 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Schedule I (17.9% of the money): 4,441 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 4,441407 hits
Earned $100k+: 9.2 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings: $928
Chance against standard: -0.2%no change
Typical against standard: -0.1%$1 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,386 of 4,442.

Launches counted: 1,386133 hits
Earned $100k+: 9.6 in 1001 in 10
Typical first-year earnings: $1,011
Chance against standard: +4.5%0.4 more in 100
Typical against standard: +8.8%$82 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Simulation, 12 to 36 months old: 4,442 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 251 of 4,442 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Schedule I (17.9% of the money): 4,441 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,386 of 4,442.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Mystery + Simulation moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.