Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / Open World + RPG
Open World + RPG
Games tagged both Open World and RPG: 250 indie paid launches, 47 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Open World + RPG priced $10 to $20, without the breakout. Lens figures exist at all prices only, so inside a price band the page shows the standard figures.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Open World + RPG beats both its tags: 33.7 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 26.6 in 100 for Open World and 18.5 in 100 for RPG.
That is about 1.8 times the 18.6 in 100 expected for any launch at this price. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this band uses the standard figures.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 92 games tagged both Open World and RPG priced $10 to $20. 33.7 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 23.6 for Open World-only games and 16.7 for RPG-only games, so games with both tags did better than games with either tag alone.
Both: 92 games priced $10 to $20; 33.7 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $26,312.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 92 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet. The without the breakout lens is not computed for the outer parts, so this diagram uses the standard figures.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Open World + RPG is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view222 of 250 launches | Without the breakout249 of 250 launches | Last 18 months122 of 250 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 25047 hits | 22240 hits | 24946 hits | 12217 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 18.8 in 100 | 18.0 in 100 | 18.5 in 100 | 13.9 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $2,503top tenth $327,224+ | $2,428 | $2,428 | $1,214 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -4.3%0.8 fewer in 100 | -1.6%0.3 fewer in 100 | -26.1%4.9 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | -3.0%$75 less | -3.0%$75 less | -51.5%$1,289 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Open World and RPG, 6 to 30 months old: 250 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 28 of 250 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, No Rest for the Wicked (51.8% of the money): 249 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 122 of 250.
Open World holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Open World | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view877 of 926 launches | Without the breakout925 of 926 launches | Last 18 months474 of 926 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 926151 hits | 877142 hits | 925150 hits | 47471 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 16.3 in 100 | 16.2 in 100 | 16.2 in 100 | 15.0 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $2,103top tenth $336,387+ | $2,185 | $2,062 | $1,943 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -0.6%0.1 fewer in 100 | -0.6%0.1 fewer in 100 | -8.0%1.3 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +3.9%$82 more | -1.9%$41 less | -7.6%$160 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Open World, 6 to 30 months old: 926 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 49 of 926 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Schedule I (28.6% of the money): 925 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 474 of 926.
RPG holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| RPG | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view3,513 of 4,151 launches | Without the breakout4,150 of 4,151 launches | Last 18 months2,257 of 4,151 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 4,151319 hits | 3,513268 hits | 4,150318 hits | 2,257162 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 7.7 in 1001 in 13 | 7.6 in 1001 in 13 | 7.7 in 1001 in 13 | 7.2 in 1001 in 14 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $708top tenth $62,744+ | $728 | $708 | $607 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -1.3%0.1 fewer in 100 | 0.0%no change | -6.5%0.5 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +2.8%$20 more | 0.0%no change | -14.3%$101 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged RPG, 6 to 30 months old: 4,151 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 638 of 4,151 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Path of Exile 2 (16.6% of the money): 4,150 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,257 of 4,151.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Open World + RPG moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.