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Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.

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on 11 Nov 2026

Niches / Open World + Third Person

Niche

Open World + Third Person

Games tagged both Open World and Third Person: 124 indie paid launches, 11 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

  • A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
  • Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
  • From 26,758 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 2 Nov 2026. How it is measured.

Showing Open World + Third Person priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair trails Open World and beats Third Person; priced $10 to $20 it is too small to compare with Open World and is too small to compare with Third Person.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Open World + Third Person is too small to compare with Open World and is too small to compare with Third Person: 3 of its 28 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 29.3 in 100 for Open World and 17.6 in 100 for Third Person.

Small sample: 28 launches, 3 hits.

TIEA tie
Tag oneOpen World
29.3in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds29.3 in 100
Typical earnings$25,255
Launches276 / 81 hits
Pair against ittoo few hits to compare
TIEA tie
This pairOpen World + Third Person
3 of 28launches earned
$100k+ small
Odds3 of 28 launches
$1k+22 of 28 launches
$10k+7 of 28 launches
Launches28 / 3 hits
Expected20.5 in 100
TIETied
Tag twomood tagThird Person
17.6in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds17.6 in 100
Typical earnings$5,741
Launches244 / 43 hits
Pair against ittoo few hits to compare
All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.5 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $11,233, from 4,337 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Third Person is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page
All prices124 in pairUnder $547 in pair$5 to $1035 in pair$10 to $2028 in pair$20 to $4014 in pair
What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 28 games tagged both Open World and Third Person priced $10 to $20. 3 of 28 of them earned $100k+, against 31.5 in 100 for Open World-only games and 18.5 in 100 for Third Person-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Open World alone and is too small to compare with Third Person alone.

Both: 28 games priced $10 to $20; 3 of 28 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 22 of 28 launches · $10k+ 7 of 28 launches · $100k+ 3 of 28 launches.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 28 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Rooftops & Alleys: The Parkour Gameleads this pair32.7%
PairRooftops & Alleys: The Parkour Game32.7%
Open WorldPalworld29.6%
Third PersonThe Forever Winter13.9%
CheckOne game over half?no
NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 2 of 3, 1 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview
ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Open World + Third Person

What this card holds

  • Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
  • One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
  • Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready
Same price banddata ready
Launched within a year of each otherplanned
Earned $100k+planned
The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

  • Rooftops & Alleys: The Parkour Game earned 32.7% of the estimated first-year money of the 124 Open World + Third Person launches.
  • Open World is led by Palworld, with 29.6% of its money.
  • Third Person is led by The Forever Winter, with 13.9% of its money.
  • No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Open World + Third Person holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout; too few to tell in Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Open World + Third Person through every lens, all prices
This pairBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view120 of 124 launchesWithout the breakout123 of 124 launchesLast 18 months30 of 124 launches
Launches counted12411 hits12011 hits12310 hits302 hits
Earned $100k+8.9 in 1001 in 119.2 in 1001 in 118.1 in 1001 in 122 of 30too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings$858top tenth $81,053+$865$834under 100 launches
Chance against standardthe base+3.3%0.3 more in 100-8.4%0.7 fewer in 100-24.8%2.2 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standardthe base+0.8%$7 more-2.8%$24 lessunder 100 launches
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsToo few to tell
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Open World and Third Person, 12 to 36 months old: 124 launches.

Launches counted
12411 hits
Earned $100k+
8.9 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings
$858top tenth $81,053+
Chance against standard
the base
Typical against standard
the base
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 4 of 124 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
12011 hits
Earned $100k+
9.2 in 1001 in 11
Typical first-year earnings
$865
Chance against standard
+3.3%0.3 more in 100
Typical against standard
+0.8%$7 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Rooftops & Alleys: The Parkour Game (32.7% of the money): 123 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted
12310 hits
Earned $100k+
8.1 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings
$834
Chance against standard
-8.4%0.7 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-2.8%$24 less
Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 30 of 124.

Launches counted
302 hits
Earned $100k+
2 of 30too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings
under 100 launches
Chance against standard
-24.8%2.2 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard
under 100 launches
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged both Open World and Third Person, 12 to 36 months old: 124 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 4 of 124 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Rooftops & Alleys: The Parkour Game (32.7% of the money): 123 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 30 of 124.

Open World holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Open World through every lens, all prices
Open WorldBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view820 of 858 launchesWithout the breakout857 of 858 launchesLast 18 months210 of 858 launches
Launches counted858163 hits820156 hits857162 hits21037 hits
Earned $100k+19.0 in 10019.0 in 10018.9 in 10017.6 in 100
Typical first-year earnings$2,181top tenth $483,712+$2,280$2,150$2,601
Chance against standardthe base+0.1%no change-0.5%0.1 fewer in 100-7.3%1.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standardthe base+4.5%$99 more-1.4%$31 less+19.3%$420 more
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsHolds
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Open World, 12 to 36 months old: 858 launches.

Launches counted
858163 hits
Earned $100k+
19.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$2,181top tenth $483,712+
Chance against standard
the base
Typical against standard
the base
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 38 of 858 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
820156 hits
Earned $100k+
19.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$2,280
Chance against standard
+0.1%no change
Typical against standard
+4.5%$99 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Palworld (29.6% of the money): 857 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted
857162 hits
Earned $100k+
18.9 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$2,150
Chance against standard
-0.5%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-1.4%$31 less
Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 210 of 858.

Launches counted
21037 hits
Earned $100k+
17.6 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$2,601
Chance against standard
-7.3%1.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
+19.3%$420 more
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged Open World, 12 to 36 months old: 858 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 38 of 858 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Palworld (29.6% of the money): 857 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 210 of 858.

Third Person holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Third Person through every lens, all prices
Third PersonBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view1,448 of 1,502 launchesWithout the breakout1,501 of 1,502 launchesLast 18 months422 of 1,502 launches
Launches counted1,50288 hits1,44886 hits1,50187 hits42226 hits
Earned $100k+5.9 in 1001 in 175.9 in 1001 in 175.8 in 1001 in 176.2 in 1001 in 16
Typical first-year earnings$300top tenth $27,197+$319$300$300
Chance against standardthe base+1.4%0.1 more in 100-1.1%0.1 fewer in 100+5.2%0.3 more in 100
Typical against standardthe base+6.3%$19 more0.0%no change0.0%no change
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsHolds
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Third Person, 12 to 36 months old: 1,502 launches.

Launches counted
1,50288 hits
Earned $100k+
5.9 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings
$300top tenth $27,197+
Chance against standard
the base
Typical against standard
the base
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 54 of 1,502 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
1,44886 hits
Earned $100k+
5.9 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings
$319
Chance against standard
+1.4%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard
+6.3%$19 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, The Forever Winter (13.9% of the money): 1,501 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted
1,50187 hits
Earned $100k+
5.8 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings
$300
Chance against standard
-1.1%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 422 of 1,502.

Launches counted
42226 hits
Earned $100k+
6.2 in 1001 in 16
Typical first-year earnings
$300
Chance against standard
+5.2%0.3 more in 100
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged Third Person, 12 to 36 months old: 1,502 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 54 of 1,502 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, The Forever Winter (13.9% of the money): 1,501 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 422 of 1,502.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Open World + Third Person moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.

Releases

Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.