Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Physics + Sandbox
Games tagged both Physics and Sandbox: 160 indie paid launches, 18 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Physics + Sandbox priced $10 to $20, west-facing view. Lens figures exist at all prices only, so inside a price band the page shows the standard figures.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Physics + Sandbox beats Physics and trails Sandbox: 18.9 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 17.5 in 100 for Physics and 30.7 in 100 for Sandbox.
That is about 1.0 times the 18.6 in 100 expected for any launch at this price. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this band uses the standard figures.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 53 games tagged both Physics and Sandbox priced $10 to $20. 18.9 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 16.9 for Physics-only games and 32.5 for Sandbox-only games, so the mix beats Physics alone and trails Sandbox alone.
Both: 53 games priced $10 to $20; 18.9 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $15,177.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 53 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet. The west-facing view lens is not computed for the outer parts, so this diagram uses the standard figures.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Physics + Sandbox holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view157 of 160 launches | Without the breakout159 of 160 launches | Last 18 months106 of 160 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 16018 hits | 15718 hits | 15917 hits | 10612 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 11.3 in 100 | 11.5 in 100 | 10.7 in 100 | 11.3 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $2,526top tenth $258,868+ | $2,530 | $2,428 | $2,560 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | +1.8%0.2 more in 100 | -5.3%0.6 fewer in 100 | 0.0%no change |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +0.2%$4 more | -3.9%$98 less | +1.3%$34 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Physics and Sandbox, 6 to 30 months old: 160 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 3 of 160 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Space Engineers 2 (16.0% of the money): 159 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 106 of 160.
Physics holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Physics | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,277 of 1,303 launches | Without the breakout1,302 of 1,303 launches | Last 18 months723 of 1,303 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,30384 hits | 1,27783 hits | 1,30283 hits | 72352 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 6.4 in 1001 in 16 | 6.5 in 1001 in 15 | 6.4 in 1001 in 16 | 7.2 in 1001 in 14 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $527top tenth $34,097+ | $564 | $527 | $606 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | +1.6%0.1 more in 100 | 0.0%no change | +12.5%0.8 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +7.0%$37 more | 0.0%no change | +15.0%$79 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Physics, 6 to 30 months old: 1,303 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 26 of 1,303 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, R.E.P.O. (29.2% of the money): 1,302 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 723 of 1,303.
Sandbox holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Sandbox | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,352 of 1,394 launches | Without the breakout1,393 of 1,394 launches | Last 18 months822 of 1,394 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,394210 hits | 1,352198 hits | 1,393209 hits | 822109 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 15.1 in 100 | 14.6 in 100 | 15.0 in 100 | 13.3 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,841top tenth $239,640+ | $1,840 | $1,841 | $1,618 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -3.3%0.5 fewer in 100 | -0.7%0.1 fewer in 100 | -11.9%1.8 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | -0.1%$1 less | 0.0%no change | -12.1%$223 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Sandbox, 6 to 30 months old: 1,394 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 42 of 1,394 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (22.6% of the money): 1,393 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 822 of 1,394.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Physics + Sandbox moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.