Niche

Puzzle + Visual Novel

Games tagged both Puzzle and Visual Novel: 216 indie paid launches, 9 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,758 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 2 Nov 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 230 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2021 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,758 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing Puzzle + Visual Novel priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is about level with Puzzle and is about level with Visual Novel; priced $10 to $20 it is too small to compare with Puzzle and is too small to compare with Visual Novel.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Puzzle + Visual Novel is too small to compare with Puzzle and is too small to compare with Visual Novel: 4 of its 32 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 15.0 in 100 for Puzzle and 14.1 in 100 for Visual Novel.

Small sample: 32 launches, 4 hits.

TIEA tie

Tag onePuzzle

15.0in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds15.0 in 100

Typical earnings$5,373

Launches680 / 102 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairPuzzle + Visual Novel

4 of 32launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds4 of 32 launches

$1k+91 in 100

$10k+56 in 100

Launches32 / 4 hits

Expected20.5 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twoVisual Novel

14.1in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds14.1 in 100

Typical earnings$10,523

Launches434 / 61 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.5 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $11,233, from 4,337 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices216 in pair Under $5107 in pair $5 to $1074 in pair $10 to $2032 in pair$20 to $403: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 32 games tagged both Puzzle and Visual Novel priced $10 to $20. 4 of 32 of them earned $100k+, against 15.1 in 100 for Puzzle-only games and 14.2 in 100 for Visual Novel-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Puzzle alone and is too small to compare with Visual Novel alone.

Both: 32 games priced $10 to $20; 4 of 32 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 91 in 100 · $10k+ 56 in 100 · $100k+ 4 of 32 launches.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 32 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

No Case Should Remain Unsolvedleads this pair18.1%

PairNo Case Should Remain Unsolved18.1%

PuzzleBlue Prince7.2%

Visual NovelThe Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty6.6%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 2 of 3, 1 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Puzzle + Visual Novel

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

No Case Should Remain Unsolved earned 18.1% of the estimated first-year money of the 216 Puzzle + Visual Novel launches.
Puzzle is led by Blue Prince, with 7.2% of its money.
Visual Novel is led by The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty, with 6.6% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Puzzle + Visual Novel holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout; too few to tell in Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Puzzle + Visual Novel through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view190 of 216 launches	Without the breakout215 of 216 launches	Last 18 months60 of 216 launches
Launches counted	2169 hits	1909 hits	2158 hits	602 hits
Earned $100k+	4.2 in 1001 in 24	4.7 in 1001 in 21	3.7 in 1001 in 27	2 of 60too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings	$1,324top tenth $43,094+	$1,308	$1,324	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	+13.7%0.6 more in 100	-10.7%0.4 fewer in 100	-20.0%0.8 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	-1.2%$16 less	0.0%no change	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Puzzle and Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 216 launches.

Launches counted: 2169 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.2 in 1001 in 24
Typical first-year earnings: $1,324top tenth $43,094+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 26 of 216 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1909 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.7 in 1001 in 21
Typical first-year earnings: $1,308
Chance against standard: +13.7%0.6 more in 100
Typical against standard: -1.2%$16 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, No Case Should Remain Unsolved (18.1% of the money): 215 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 2158 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.7 in 1001 in 27
Typical first-year earnings: $1,324
Chance against standard: -10.7%0.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 60 of 216.

Launches counted: 602 hits
Earned $100k+: 2 of 60too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -20.0%0.8 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Puzzle and Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 216 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 26 of 216 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, No Case Should Remain Unsolved (18.1% of the money): 215 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 60 of 216.

Puzzle holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Puzzle through every lens, all prices
Puzzle	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view5,129 of 5,329 launches	Without the breakout5,328 of 5,329 launches	Last 18 months1,514 of 5,329 launches
Launches counted	5,329188 hits	5,129177 hits	5,328187 hits	1,51458 hits
Earned $100k+	3.5 in 1001 in 28	3.5 in 1001 in 29	3.5 in 1001 in 28	3.8 in 1001 in 26
Typical first-year earnings	$417top tenth $14,053+	$429	$417	$454
Chance against standard	the base	-2.2%0.1 fewer in 100	-0.5%no change	+8.6%0.3 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+2.9%$12 more	0.0%no change	+8.9%$37 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Puzzle, 12 to 36 months old: 5,329 launches.

Launches counted: 5,329188 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.5 in 1001 in 28
Typical first-year earnings: $417top tenth $14,053+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 200 of 5,329 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 5,129177 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.5 in 1001 in 29
Typical first-year earnings: $429
Chance against standard: -2.2%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +2.9%$12 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Blue Prince (7.2% of the money): 5,328 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 5,328187 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.5 in 1001 in 28
Typical first-year earnings: $417
Chance against standard: -0.5%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,514 of 5,329.

Launches counted: 1,51458 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.8 in 1001 in 26
Typical first-year earnings: $454
Chance against standard: +8.6%0.3 more in 100
Typical against standard: +8.9%$37 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Puzzle, 12 to 36 months old: 5,329 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 200 of 5,329 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Blue Prince (7.2% of the money): 5,328 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,514 of 5,329.

Visual Novel is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Visual Novel through every lens, all prices
Visual Novel	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,671 of 1,901 launches	Without the breakout1,900 of 1,901 launches	Last 18 months533 of 1,901 launches
Launches counted	1,901128 hits	1,67198 hits	1,900127 hits	53335 hits
Earned $100k+	6.7 in 1001 in 15	5.9 in 1001 in 17	6.7 in 1001 in 15	6.6 in 1001 in 15
Typical first-year earnings	$1,453top tenth $60,301+	$1,414	$1,453	$1,308
Chance against standard	the base	-12.9%0.9 fewer in 100	-0.7%no change	-2.5%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	-2.7%$39 less	0.0%no change	-10.0%$145 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 1,901 launches.

Launches counted: 1,901128 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.7 in 1001 in 15
Typical first-year earnings: $1,453top tenth $60,301+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 230 of 1,901 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,67198 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.9 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $1,414
Chance against standard: -12.9%0.9 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -2.7%$39 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty (6.6% of the money): 1,900 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1,900127 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.7 in 1001 in 15
Typical first-year earnings: $1,453
Chance against standard: -0.7%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 533 of 1,901.

Launches counted: 53335 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.6 in 1001 in 15
Typical first-year earnings: $1,308
Chance against standard: -2.5%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -10.0%$145 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 12 to 36 months old: 1,901 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 230 of 1,901 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty (6.6% of the money): 1,900 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 533 of 1,901.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Puzzle + Visual Novel moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.