Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Realistic + Sandbox
Games tagged both Realistic and Sandbox: 100 indie paid launches, 18 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Realistic + Sandbox priced $10 to $20, hiding samples under 100 launches. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats Realistic and is about level with Sandbox; priced $10 to $20 it has too few launches to read.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
40 launches, under your minimum sample of 100.
Pick another price band, or lower the minimum sample.
40 launches, under your minimum sample of 100.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 40 games tagged both Realistic and Sandbox priced $10 to $20. 32.5 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 20.1 in 100 for Realistic-only games and 32.8 in 100 for Sandbox-only games, so the mix beats Realistic alone and is about level with Sandbox alone.
Both: 40 games priced $10 to $20; 32.5 in 100 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 90 in 100 · $10k+ 73 in 100 · $100k+ 33 in 100.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 40 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Realistic + Sandbox holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view99 of 100 launches | Without the breakout99 of 100 launches | Last 18 months30 of 100 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 10018 hits | 9918 hits | 9917 hits | 306 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 18.0 in 100 | 18.2 in 100 | 17.2 in 100 | 20.0 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $4,462top tenth $271,387+ | under 100 launches | under 100 launches | under 100 launches |
| Chance against standard | the base | +1.0%0.2 more in 100 | -4.6%0.8 fewer in 100 | +11.1%2.0 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | under 100 launches | under 100 launches | under 100 launches |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Realistic and Sandbox, 12 to 36 months old: 100 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 1 of 100 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, BMX Streets (15.6% of the money): 99 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 30 of 100.
Realistic is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.
| Realistic | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,452 of 1,485 launches | Without the breakout1,484 of 1,485 launches | Last 18 months428 of 1,485 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,485112 hits | 1,452112 hits | 1,484111 hits | 42836 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 7.5 in 1001 in 13 | 7.7 in 1001 in 13 | 7.5 in 1001 in 13 | 8.4 in 1001 in 12 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $945top tenth $56,843+ | $994 | $945 | $1,053 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +2.3%0.2 more in 100 | -0.8%0.1 fewer in 100 | +11.5%0.9 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +5.2%$49 more | 0.0%no change | +11.4%$108 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Moves the answer | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Realistic, 12 to 36 months old: 1,485 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 33 of 1,485 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Gray Zone Warfare (25.1% of the money): 1,484 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 428 of 1,485.
Sandbox holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| Sandbox | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,173 of 1,220 launches | Without the breakout1,219 of 1,220 launches | Last 18 months386 of 1,220 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,220206 hits | 1,173194 hits | 1,219205 hits | 38665 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 16.9 in 100 | 16.5 in 100 | 16.8 in 100 | 16.8 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $2,007top tenth $290,975+ | $2,070 | $1,992 | $2,439 |
| Chance against standard | the base | -2.1%0.3 fewer in 100 | -0.4%0.1 fewer in 100 | -0.3%no change |
| Typical against standard | the base | +3.1%$63 more | -0.7%$15 less | +21.5%$432 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Sandbox, 12 to 36 months old: 1,220 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 47 of 1,220 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (23.1% of the money): 1,219 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 386 of 1,220.
A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Realistic + Sandbox moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.