Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Realistic + Surreal
Games tagged both Realistic and Surreal: 41 indie paid launches, 1 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Realistic + Surreal priced under $5, hiding samples under 30 launches. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is too small to compare with Realistic and is too small to compare with Surreal; priced under $5 it has too few launches to read.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
23 launches, under your minimum sample of 30.
Pick another price band, or lower the minimum sample.
23 launches, under your minimum sample of 30.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 23 games tagged both Realistic and Surreal priced under $5. 0 of 23 of them earned $100k+, against 1 of 728 for Realistic-only games and 1.6 in 100 for Surreal-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Realistic alone and is too small to compare with Surreal alone.
Both: 23 games priced under $5; 0 of 23 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 12 of 23 launches · $10k+ 2 of 23 launches · $100k+ 0 of 23 launches.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 23 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: too few to tell. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: not run yet.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Realistic + Surreal is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view38 of 41 launches | Without the breakout40 of 41 launches | Last 18 monthstoo few |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 411 hits | 381 hits | 400 hits | too few |
| Earned $100k+ | 1 of 41too few for a rate | 1 of 38too few for a rate | 0 of 40too few for a rate | too few |
| Chance of $10k+ | 20 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 68 in 100 | under 100 launches | under 100 launches | too few |
| Chance against standard | the base | +7.9%0.2 more in 100; too few to tell | -100.0%2.4 fewer in 100 | too few |
| Typical against standard | the base | under 100 launches | under 100 launches | too few |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Too few to tell | Moves the answer | Not run yet |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Realistic and Surreal, 12 to 36 months old: 41 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 3 of 41 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, POOLS (69.9% of the money): 40 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Too few launches to run this lens.
Realistic is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.
| Realistic | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,452 of 1,485 launches | Without the breakout1,484 of 1,485 launches | Last 18 months428 of 1,485 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,485112 hits | 1,452112 hits | 1,484111 hits | 42836 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 7.5 in 1001 in 13 | 7.7 in 1001 in 13 | 7.5 in 1001 in 13 | 8.4 in 1001 in 12 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $945top tenth $56,843+ | $994 | $945 | $1,053 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +2.3%0.2 more in 100 | -0.8%0.1 fewer in 100 | +11.5%0.9 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +5.2%$49 more | 0.0%no change | +11.4%$108 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Moves the answer | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Realistic, 12 to 36 months old: 1,485 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 33 of 1,485 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Gray Zone Warfare (25.1% of the money): 1,484 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 428 of 1,485.
Surreal holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| Surreal | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view553 of 579 launches | Without the breakout578 of 579 launches | Last 18 months157 of 579 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 57935 hits | 55333 hits | 57834 hits | 1577 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 6.0 in 1001 in 17 | 6.0 in 1001 in 17 | 5.9 in 1001 in 17 | 4.5 in 1001 in 22 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,034top tenth $46,867+ | $1,020 | $1,034 | $1,161 |
| Chance against standard | the base | -1.3%0.1 fewer in 100 | -2.7%0.2 fewer in 100 | -26.2%1.6 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | -1.4%$14 less | 0.0%no change | +12.3%$127 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Surreal, 12 to 36 months old: 579 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 26 of 579 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, INDIKA (14.1% of the money): 578 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 157 of 579.
A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Realistic + Surreal moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.