Niche

Realistic + Third Person

Games tagged both Realistic and Third Person: 138 indie paid launches, 11 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,291 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 238 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2020 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,291 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Last 18 months

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Only launches from the last 18 months. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 Last 18 months Reset

Showing Realistic + Third Person priced $10 to $20, last 18 months. Lens figures exist at all prices only, so inside a price band the page shows the standard figures.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Realistic + Third Person is about level with Realistic and is about level with Third Person: 19.4 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 22.1 in 100 for Realistic and 17.8 in 100 for Third Person.

That is about 0.9 times the 20.4 in 100 expected for any launch at this price. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this band uses the standard figures.

TIEA tie

Tag onemood tagRealistic

22.1in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds22.1 in 100

Typical earnings$11,919

Launches244 / 54 hits

A tie, apart by2.8 in 100

TIEA tie

This pairRealistic + Third Person

19.4in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds19.4 in 100

$1k+74 in 100

$10k+39 in 100

Launches31 / 6 hits

Expected20.4 in 100

TIETied

Tag twomood tagThird Person

17.8in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds17.8 in 100

Typical earnings$6,068

Launches242 / 43 hits

A tie, apart by1.6 in 100

All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.4 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $10,978, from 4,304 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Realistic is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices138 in pair Under $557 in pair $5 to $1035 in pair $10 to $2031 in pair $20 to $4015 in pair

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 31 games tagged both Realistic and Third Person priced $10 to $20. 19.4 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 22.5 in 100 for Realistic-only games and 17.5 in 100 for Third Person-only games, so the mix trails Realistic alone and is about level with Third Person alone.

Both: 31 games priced $10 to $20; 19.4 in 100 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 74 in 100 · $10k+ 39 in 100 · $100k+ 19 in 100.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 31 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet. The last 18 months lens is not computed for the outer parts, so this diagram uses the standard figures.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Firefighting Simulator: Igniteleads this pair36.2%

PairFirefighting Simulator: Ignite36.2%

RealisticGray Zone Warfare25.1%

Third PersonThe Forever Winter14.9%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Realistic + Third Person

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Firefighting Simulator: Ignite earned 36.2% of the estimated first-year money of the 138 Realistic + Third Person launches.
Realistic is led by Gray Zone Warfare, with 25.1% of its money.
Third Person is led by The Forever Winter, with 14.9% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Realistic + Third Person holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Realistic + Third Person through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view137 of 138 launches	Without the breakout137 of 138 launches	Last 18 months41 of 138 launches
Launches counted	13811 hits	13711 hits	13710 hits	415 hits
Earned $100k+	8.0 in 1001 in 13	8.0 in 1001 in 12	7.3 in 1001 in 14	12.2 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$569top tenth $37,222+	$569	$523	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	+0.7%0.1 more in 100	-8.4%0.7 fewer in 100	+53.0%4.2 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	0.0%no change	-8.1%$46 less	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Realistic and Third Person, 12 to 36 months old: 138 launches.

Launches counted: 13811 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.0 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $569top tenth $37,222+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 1 of 138 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 13711 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.0 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $569
Chance against standard: +0.7%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Firefighting Simulator: Ignite (36.2% of the money): 137 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 13710 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.3 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $523
Chance against standard: -8.4%0.7 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -8.1%$46 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 41 of 138.

Launches counted: 415 hits
Earned $100k+: 12.2 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: +53.0%4.2 more in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Realistic and Third Person, 12 to 36 months old: 138 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 1 of 138 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Firefighting Simulator: Ignite (36.2% of the money): 137 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 41 of 138.

Realistic is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Realistic through every lens, all prices
Realistic	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,452 of 1,485 launches	Without the breakout1,484 of 1,485 launches	Last 18 months428 of 1,485 launches
Launches counted	1,485112 hits	1,452112 hits	1,484111 hits	42836 hits
Earned $100k+	7.5 in 1001 in 13	7.7 in 1001 in 13	7.5 in 1001 in 13	8.4 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings	$945top tenth $56,843+	$994	$945	$1,053
Chance against standard	the base	+2.3%0.2 more in 100	-0.8%0.1 fewer in 100	+11.5%0.9 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+5.2%$49 more	0.0%no change	+11.4%$108 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Realistic, 12 to 36 months old: 1,485 launches.

Launches counted: 1,485112 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.5 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $945top tenth $56,843+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 33 of 1,485 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,452112 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.7 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $994
Chance against standard: +2.3%0.2 more in 100
Typical against standard: +5.2%$49 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Gray Zone Warfare (25.1% of the money): 1,484 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1,484111 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.5 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $945
Chance against standard: -0.8%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 428 of 1,485.

Launches counted: 42836 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.4 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $1,053
Chance against standard: +11.5%0.9 more in 100
Typical against standard: +11.4%$108 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Realistic, 12 to 36 months old: 1,485 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 33 of 1,485 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Gray Zone Warfare (25.1% of the money): 1,484 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 428 of 1,485.

Third Person holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Third Person through every lens, all prices
Third Person	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,435 of 1,487 launches	Without the breakout1,486 of 1,487 launches	Last 18 months425 of 1,487 launches
Launches counted	1,48787 hits	1,43586 hits	1,48686 hits	42527 hits
Earned $100k+	5.9 in 1001 in 17	6.0 in 1001 in 17	5.8 in 1001 in 17	6.4 in 1001 in 16
Typical first-year earnings	$295top tenth $26,884+	$313	$295	$307
Chance against standard	the base	+2.4%0.1 more in 100	-1.1%0.1 fewer in 100	+8.6%0.5 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+6.1%$18 more	0.0%no change	+4.1%$12 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Third Person, 12 to 36 months old: 1,487 launches.

Launches counted: 1,48787 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.9 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $295top tenth $26,884+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 52 of 1,487 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,43586 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.0 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $313
Chance against standard: +2.4%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard: +6.1%$18 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, The Forever Winter (14.9% of the money): 1,486 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1,48686 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.8 in 1001 in 17
Typical first-year earnings: $295
Chance against standard: -1.1%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 425 of 1,487.

Launches counted: 42527 hits
Earned $100k+: 6.4 in 1001 in 16
Typical first-year earnings: $307
Chance against standard: +8.6%0.5 more in 100
Typical against standard: +4.1%$12 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Third Person, 12 to 36 months old: 1,487 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 52 of 1,487 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, The Forever Winter (14.9% of the money): 1,486 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 425 of 1,487.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Realistic + Third Person moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.