Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

RPG + Historical: a typical launch earns $4,250 in its first year

That is the median of 39 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 7 of 76 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 5.6 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases fell 2% on the year before: 57 against 58.

Big publishers: over 85% from majors or $40+ games

Price: $4,250
Price vs a year earlier: +6.9%
Releases, 12 months: 57
Upcoming games: 189
Games on the store: 510

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

RPG + Historical on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it. One game dominates the figure Listed after unflagged rows on this board	0.54%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.07% to 1.38%	25 ranked of 189 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#4,484 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. Big publishers: over 85% from majors or $40+ games	1.17xhits against expected	0.80x to 1.78x	76 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#1,898 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. One game dominates the figure	+45%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	+6% to +88%	41 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#241 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. One game dominates the figure Listed after unflagged rows on this board	+5%review growth against same-age games	−7% to +15%	41 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#1,701 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 7
Expected: 5.6

Launches: 76
Hit rate: 9.2%5.0% to 18.4%
Expected rate: 7.3%
Against expected: 1.17x0.80x to 1.78x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

76 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $44
Median: $2,436
Top tenth: $77,098

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 57
Prior 12 months: 58

Change: −2%
Against Steam: −27%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

RPGGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
HistoricalNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with RPG

pairs with RPG

RPG + FMV$25,57938 launches priced, 46 releases in 12 months
RPG + Base Building$17,28632 launches priced, 49 releases in 12 months
RPG + Farming Sim$8,78948 launches priced, 44 releases in 12 months
RPG + Difficult$8,09240 launches priced, 39 releases in 12 months
RPG + Resource Management$8,05030 launches priced, 62 releases in 12 months
RPG + Dating Sim$6,63993 launches priced, 145 releases in 12 months

Every pair with RPG

More with Historical

pairs with Historical

Story Rich + Historical$9,68533 launches priced, 53 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Historical$5,28050 launches priced, 124 releases in 12 months
Historical + Wargame$4,50234 launches priced, 56 releases in 12 months
War + Historical$4,39930 launches priced, 43 releases in 12 months
Strategy + Historical$4,25980 launches priced, 157 releases in 12 months
Turn-Based Strategy + Historical$4,04836 launches priced, 59 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Historical

Verdicts

in development

GMD Verdicts will be a written read on a niche, built from the same data and the published method on this site. Join the early list and we will email you when the first ones are ready. Nothing on this page is held back while you wait.