Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Simulation + Historical: a typical launch earns $5,280 in its first year

That is the median of 50 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 26 of 104 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 14.3 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 100% on the year before: 124 against 62.

Price: $5,280
Price vs a year earlier: +125.0%
Releases, 12 months: 124
Upcoming games: 219
Games on the store: 767

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Simulation + Historical on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.51%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.28% to 0.77%	39 ranked of 220 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#463 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	1.68xhits against expected	1.30x to 2.13x	104 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#417 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	−19%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−37% to +2%	44 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,962 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	+15%review growth against same-age games	+5% to +29%	44 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#121 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 26
Expected: 14.3

Launches: 104
Hit rate: 25.7%19.0% to 30.5%
Expected rate: 13.8%
Against expected: 1.68x1.30x to 2.13x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

105 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $280
Median: $5,471
Top tenth: $637,356

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 124
Prior 12 months: 62

Change: +100%
Against Steam: +41%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

SimulationGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
HistoricalNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Simulation

pairs with Simulation

Simulation + Shop Keeper$32,26936 launches priced, 330 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Cozy$15,70676 launches priced, 253 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Online Co-Op$11,02868 launches priced, 133 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Multiplayer$8,980122 launches priced, 253 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Base Building$7,38289 launches priced, 173 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Economy$6,979210 launches priced, 540 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Simulation

More with Historical

pairs with Historical

Story Rich + Historical$9,68533 launches priced, 53 releases in 12 months
Historical + Wargame$4,50234 launches priced, 56 releases in 12 months
War + Historical$4,39930 launches priced, 43 releases in 12 months
Strategy + Historical$4,25980 launches priced, 157 releases in 12 months
RPG + Historical$4,25039 launches priced, 57 releases in 12 months
Turn-Based Strategy + Historical$4,04836 launches priced, 59 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Historical

Verdicts

in development

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