Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Simulation + Arcade: a typical launch earns $263 in its first year

That is the median of 223 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 17 of 448 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 20.8 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 60% on the year before: 424 against 265.

One game dominates the figure

Price: $263
Price vs a year earlier: −13.1%
Releases, 12 months: 424
Upcoming games: 705
Games on the store: 2,329

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Simulation + Arcade on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.29%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.18% to 0.40%	44 ranked of 705 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#794 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. One game dominates the figure	0.84xhits against expected	0.61x to 1.18x	448 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#3,846 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	−22%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−32% to −9%	59 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#2,031 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	−9%review growth against same-age games	−17% to −1%	59 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#1,217 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 17
Expected: 20.8

Launches: 448
Hit rate: 3.8%1.7% to 7.3%
Expected rate: 4.7%
Against expected: 0.84x0.61x to 1.18x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

448 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $323
Top tenth: $15,913

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 424
Prior 12 months: 265

Change: +60%
Against Steam: +17%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

SimulationGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
ArcadeGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Simulation

pairs with Simulation

Simulation + Shop Keeper$32,26936 launches priced, 330 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Cozy$15,70676 launches priced, 253 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Online Co-Op$11,02868 launches priced, 133 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Multiplayer$8,980122 launches priced, 253 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Base Building$7,38289 launches priced, 173 releases in 12 months
Simulation + Economy$6,979210 launches priced, 540 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Simulation

More with Arcade

pairs with Arcade

Co-op + Arcade$1,37646 launches priced, 69 releases in 12 months
Arcade + Twin Stick Shooter$1,01169 launches priced, 100 releases in 12 months
Arcade + Female Protagonist$96168 launches priced, 82 releases in 12 months
Arcade + Local Co-Op$96050 launches priced, 58 releases in 12 months
Arcade + Anime$91052 launches priced, 96 releases in 12 months
Arcade + Difficult$80679 launches priced, 145 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Arcade

Verdicts

in development

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