Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Visual Novel + 2D: a typical launch earns $1,520 in its first year

That is the median of 340 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 27 of 726 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 49.8 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 41% on the year before: 619 against 438.

Price: $1,520
Price vs a year earlier: +41.2%
Releases, 12 months: 619
Upcoming games: 1,243
Games on the store: 3,579

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Visual Novel + 2D on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.46%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.33% to 0.59%	89 ranked of 1,243 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#524 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	0.57xhits against expected	0.43x to 0.75x	726 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#5,380 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	+3%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−8% to +20%	153 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,341 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	+6%review growth against same-age games	−2% to +15%	153 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#528 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 27
Expected: 49.8

Launches: 726
Hit rate: 3.7%2.5% to 6.6%
Expected rate: 6.9%
Against expected: 0.57x0.43x to 0.75x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

726 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $16
Median: $889
Top tenth: $26,095

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 619
Prior 12 months: 438

Change: +41%
Against Steam: +3%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

Visual NovelGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
2DNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Visual Novel

pairs with Visual Novel

Visual Novel + FMV$65,06531 launches priced, 48 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + LGBTQ+$6,05083 launches priced, 159 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Detective$5,29368 launches priced, 134 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Investigation$4,88542 launches priced, 55 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Immersive Sim$4,55364 launches priced, 115 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Romance$3,639179 launches priced, 277 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Visual Novel

More with 2D

pairs with 2D

2D + Roguelike Deckbuilder$6,77234 launches priced, 64 releases in 12 months
2D + Romance$3,28176 launches priced, 110 releases in 12 months
War + 2D$3,16035 launches priced, 55 releases in 12 months
2D + Dating Sim$2,55991 launches priced, 116 releases in 12 months
2D + LGBTQ+$2,46550 launches priced, 85 releases in 12 months
2D + Historical$2,32474 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with 2D

Verdicts

in development

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