Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Visual Novel + Cinematic: a typical launch earns $3,132 in its first year

That is the median of 41 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 17 of 75 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 7.1 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 18% on the year before: 59 against 50.

China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese

Price: $3,132
Price vs a year earlier: −80.2%
Releases, 12 months: 59
Upcoming games: 100
Games on the store: 299

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Visual Novel + Cinematic on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.01%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.01% to 0.02%	6 ranked of 101 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#3,626 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese Listed after unflagged rows on this board	1.98xhits against expected	1.46x to 2.63x	75 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#5,831 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese	+3%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−25% to +32%	17 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,340 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese	−11%review growth against same-age games	−23% to +1%	17 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#1,355 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 17
Expected: 7.1

Launches: 75
Hit rate: 22.7%16.2% to 34.8%
Expected rate: 9.5%
Against expected: 1.98x1.46x to 2.63x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

75 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $54
Median: $2,137
Top tenth: $203,327

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 59
Prior 12 months: 50

Change: +18%
Against Steam: −14%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

Visual NovelGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
CinematicNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Visual Novel

pairs with Visual Novel

Visual Novel + FMV$65,06531 launches priced, 48 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + LGBTQ+$6,05083 launches priced, 159 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Detective$5,29368 launches priced, 134 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Investigation$4,88542 launches priced, 55 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Immersive Sim$4,55364 launches priced, 115 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Romance$3,639179 launches priced, 277 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Visual Novel

More with Cinematic

pairs with Cinematic

Cinematic + Immersive Sim$24,23132 launches priced, 35 releases in 12 months
Psychological Horror + Cinematic$5,00947 launches priced, 58 releases in 12 months
Cinematic + Mystery$4,60234 launches priced, 41 releases in 12 months
Cinematic + Interactive Fiction$4,18748 launches priced, 48 releases in 12 months
Story Rich + Cinematic$4,03368 launches priced, 73 releases in 12 months
Cinematic + Walking Simulator$3,57532 launches priced, 57 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Cinematic

Verdicts

in development

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