Genres

Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.

Text size
Game Market DataSteam market, quoted daily
Live games
191,514
on 30 Sep 2026

Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Niches / Visual Novel / Incremental

Visual Novel + Incremental: a typical launch earns $451 in its first year

That is the median of 40 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 2 of 88 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 2.7 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 15% on the year before: 63 against 55.

  • China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese
Price
$451
median of 40 launches
Price vs a year earlier
+11.1%
four quarters on the four before
Releases, 12 months
63
55 the year before
Upcoming games
90
coming soon on Steam
Games on the store
319
carrying both tags

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Visual Novel + Incremental on each board
BoardValueIntervalSampleStanding
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 5 or more wishlist-ranked upcoming games.
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.
  • China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese
  • Listed after unflagged rows on this board
0.88xhits against expected0.64x to 1.55x88 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)#6,158 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 15 or more tracked games and 20 or more releases in each 12-month period.
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 15 or more tracked games and 1,000 reviews in each window.

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits
2
Expected
2.7
Launches
88
Hit rate
2.3%0.0% to 7.3%
Expected rate
3.1%
Against expected
0.88x0.64x to 1.55x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

88 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth
$8
Median
$421
Top tenth
$10,124

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months
63
Prior 12 months
55
Change
+15%

Parent tags

  • Visual NovelGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
  • IncrementalGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Visual Novel

pairs with Visual Novel
Every pair with Visual Novel

More with Incremental

pairs with Incremental
Every pair with Incremental

Verdicts

in development

GMD Verdicts will be a written read on a niche, built from the same data and the published method on this site. Join the early list and we will email you when the first ones are ready. Nothing on this page is held back while you wait.

Releases

Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.