Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026
Niches / Visual Novel / Mystery
Visual Novel + Mystery: a typical launch earns $2,893 in its first year
That is the median of 124 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 28 of 241 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 23.3 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 41% on the year before: 209 against 148.
- Price
- $2,893 median of 124 launches
- Price vs a year earlier
- −47.9% four quarters on the four before
- Releases, 12 months
- 209 148 the year before
- Upcoming games
- 476 coming soon on Steam
- Games on the store
- 1,333 carrying both tags
Boards
as of 30 Sep 2026Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.
| Board | Value | Interval | Sample | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it. | 0.43%share of upcoming wishlist heat | 0.21% to 0.62% | 53 ranked of 476 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026 | #548 of 7,193pairs on this board |
| Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. | 1.18xhits against expected | 0.91x to 1.53x | 241 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old) | #1,857 of 6,324pairs on this board |
| Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. | +4%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam | −12% to +23% | 87 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months | #1,310 of 2,361pairs on this board |
| Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. | +6%review growth against same-age games | −4% to +17% | 87 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025 | #518 of 2,461pairs on this board |
Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.
Launch success
launches 6 to 30 months oldMatured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.
- Launches
- 241
- Hit rate
- 11.6%8.5% to 18.7%
- Expected rate
- 9.7%
- Against expected
- 1.18x0.91x to 1.53x
Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.
Revenue spread
241 launchesEstimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.
- Bottom tenth
- $121
- Median
- $2,104
- Top tenth
- $127,532
Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.
Supply
raw release countsGames released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.
- Change
- +41%
- Against Steam
- +2%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases
Parent tags
- Visual NovelGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
- MysteryNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
Comparable games
8 indie titlesThe biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.
Until Then (opens the Steam store)2024 · 15,814 reviews, 96% positiveest. $6.2M
Urban Myth Dissolution Center (opens the Steam store)2025 · 5,989 reviews, 88% positiveest. $1.9M
The Incident at Galley House (opens the Steam store)2026 · 4,234 reviews, 94% positiveest. $1.5M
Master Detective Archives: RAIN CODE Plus (opens the Steam store)2024 · 2,195 reviews, 80% positiveest. $1.2M
The Mermaid Mask (opens the Steam store)2026 · 2,880 reviews, 99% positiveest. $1.2M
Threefold Recital (opens the Steam store)2025 · 5,128 reviews, 98% positiveest. $916k
No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES (opens the Steam store)2025 · 841 reviews, 79% positiveest. $681k
Staffer Retro : A Supernatural Mystery Quest (opens the Steam store)2026 · 968 reviews, 89% positiveest. $490k
More with Visual Novel
pairs with Visual Novel- Visual Novel + FMV$65,06531 launches priced, 48 releases in 12 months
- Visual Novel + LGBTQ+$6,05083 launches priced, 159 releases in 12 months
- Visual Novel + Detective$5,29368 launches priced, 134 releases in 12 months
- Visual Novel + Investigation$4,88542 launches priced, 55 releases in 12 months
- Visual Novel + Immersive Sim$4,55364 launches priced, 115 releases in 12 months
- Visual Novel + Romance$3,639179 launches priced, 277 releases in 12 months
More with Mystery
pairs with Mystery- Mystery + Choices Matter$6,00949 launches priced, 114 releases in 12 months
- Anime + Mystery$5,55743 launches priced, 65 releases in 12 months
- Mystery + Female Protagonist$5,30753 launches priced, 76 releases in 12 months
- Detective + Mystery$5,207106 launches priced, 184 releases in 12 months
- Cinematic + Mystery$4,60234 launches priced, 41 releases in 12 months
- Surreal + Mystery$4,52440 launches priced, 57 releases in 12 months
Verdicts
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