Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Visual Novel + Psychological: a typical launch earns $959 in its first year

That is the median of 44 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 7 of 99 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 5.1 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 79% on the year before: 100 against 56.

Price: $959
Price vs a year earlier: −54.4%
Releases, 12 months: 100
Upcoming games: 201
Games on the store: 510

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Visual Novel + Psychological on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.04%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.02% to 0.06%	9 ranked of 201 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#2,784 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	1.23xhits against expected	0.84x to 1.90x	99 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#1,622 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	−12%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−35% to +13%	33 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,786 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	+12%review growth against same-age games	+2% to +21%	33 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#207 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 7
Expected: 5.1

Launches: 99
Hit rate: 7.1%4.1% to 11.5%
Expected rate: 5.2%
Against expected: 1.23x0.84x to 1.90x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

99 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $43
Median: $1,143
Top tenth: $36,198

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 100
Prior 12 months: 56

Change: +79%
Against Steam: +27%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

Visual NovelGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
PsychologicalNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Visual Novel

pairs with Visual Novel

Visual Novel + FMV$65,06531 launches priced, 48 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + LGBTQ+$6,05083 launches priced, 159 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Detective$5,29368 launches priced, 134 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Investigation$4,88542 launches priced, 55 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Immersive Sim$4,55364 launches priced, 115 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Romance$3,639179 launches priced, 277 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Visual Novel

More with Psychological

pairs with Psychological

Psychological + Walking Simulator$1,81661 launches priced, 78 releases in 12 months
Surreal + Psychological$1,78330 launches priced, 41 releases in 12 months
Story Rich + Psychological$1,57670 launches priced, 122 releases in 12 months
Psychological + Multiple Endings$1,45530 launches priced, 59 releases in 12 months
Thriller + Psychological$1,37437 launches priced, 52 releases in 12 months
Psychological Horror + Psychological$1,354130 launches priced, 188 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Psychological

Verdicts

in development

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