Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches 3 Oct
Of 1,115 niches with 30+ launches at $10 to $20, 500 beat the 18 in 100 base rate. Price moves the odds most: 1 in 219 under $5, 40 in 100 at $20 to $40.500 of 1,115 niches beat the 18 in 100 base rate.500 beat the base rate.
Typical launch, all prices, first year $540
Every tag pair (two tags on the same game), screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than the tags do.
Indie paid Steam launches 12 to 36 months old, data 3 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.
Pairs with the best chance of $100k+, above the base rateFree until launch
1,115 of 4,634 niches have 30+ launches at $10 to $20. 362 match the search and chips. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.
| Rank# | Niche | Chance of $100k+ | Typical year | Top 1 in 10 | Launches | Markers | Pin | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games at $10 to $20the base rate: the row to beat | 18 in 100758 of 4,301 | $8,234 | $217,858 | 4,301 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 2D + Hidden Objectnone of 72 launches earned $100k+ | 0 of 72no hits | $766 | $3,377 | 72 | none | Pin 2D + Hidden Object | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Hidden Object + Point & Click2 of 80 launches earned $100k+ | 2 of 802 hits | $1,256 | $16,879 | 80 | none | Pin Hidden Object + Point & Click | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Arcade + Casual4 of 124 launches earned $100k+ | 4 of 1244 hits | $862 | $14,174 | 124 | none | Pin Arcade + Casual | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Hidden Object + Puzzle1 in 25 earned $100k+, from 127 launches | 1 in 255 hits | $1,149 | $27,933 | 127 | none | Pin Hidden Object + Puzzle | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Casual + Point & Click1 in 25 earned $100k+, from 126 launches | 1 in 255 hits | $1,532 | $32,794 | 126 | none | Pin Casual + Point & Click | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | 3D + 3D Platformer4 of 95 launches earned $100k+ | 4 of 954 hits | $2,228 | $30,785 | 95 | none | Pin 3D + 3D Platformer | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Action-Adventure + Casual3 of 67 launches earned $100k+ | 3 of 673 hits | $2,127 | $23,951 | 67 | none | Pin Action-Adventure + Casual | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Casual + Hidden Object1 in 22 earned $100k+, from 108 launches | 1 in 225 hits | $1,022 | $15,533 | 108 | none | Pin Casual + Hidden Object | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Casual + Fantasy1 in 21 earned $100k+, from 105 launches | 1 in 215 hits | $1,351 | $39,286 | 105 | none | Pin Casual + Fantasy | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Adventure + Choose Your Own Adventure1 in 18 earned $100k+, from 129 launches | 1 in 187 hits | $3,451 | $55,774 | 129 | none | Pin Adventure + Choose Your Own Adventure | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Puzzle + Strategy1 in 17 earned $100k+, from 103 launches | 1 in 176 hits | $2,129 | $52,569 | 103 | none | Pin Puzzle + Strategy | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | Party-Based RPG + RPG1 in 17 earned $100k+, from 99 launches | 1 in 176 hits | $5,458 | $80,696 | 99 | none | Pin Party-Based RPG + RPG | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | Cartoon + Casual2 of 33 launches earned $100k+ | 2 of 332 hits | $1,882 | $34,918 | 33 | Small | Pin Cartoon + Casual | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | Fantasy + Story Rich1 in 16 earned $100k+, from 95 launches | 1 in 166 hits | $1,532 | $68,068 | 95 | none | Pin Fantasy + Story Rich | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | Anime + Casual1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 108 launches | 1 in 157 hits | $4,371 | $54,167 | 108 | none | Pin Anime + Casual | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | Adventure + Arcade4 of 61 launches earned $100k+ | 4 of 614 hits | $1,532 | $30,202 | 61 | none | Pin Adventure + Arcade | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | 2D + Linear2 of 30 launches earned $100k+ | 2 of 302 hits | $6,246 | $48,147 | 30 | Small | Pin 2D + Linear | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | Arcade + Pixel Graphics3 of 44 launches earned $100k+ | 3 of 443 hits | $7,717 | $54,237 | 44 | Small | Pin Arcade + Pixel Graphics | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | Card Game + Casual3 of 44 launches earned $100k+ | 3 of 443 hits | $2,240 | $57,105 | 44 | Small | Pin Card Game + Casual | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | Casual + Interactive Fiction4 of 57 launches earned $100k+ | 4 of 574 hits | $4,390 | $65,840 | 57 | none | Pin Casual + Interactive Fiction | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 21 | 2D + Fantasy1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 140 launches | 1 in 1410 hits | $2,509 | $66,777 | 140 | none | Pin 2D + Fantasy | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 140 launches at $10 to $20. That is about 0.4 times the base rate. Base rate at $10 to $20: 18 in 100 (758 of 4,301 launches earned $100k+). Typical first year $2,509; the top 1 in 10 earned at least $66,777. Lens check, all pricesHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds. No warning markers: no single game holds half the money, the sample is 50+ launches and the West-facing view does not move the answer.
Grey: under 30 launches or 5 hits at that price, written as a count. Odds compare best within one price. Its two tags alone, at $10 to $20
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| 22 | Adventure + Casual1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 347 launches | 1 in 1425 hits | $2,026 | $45,892 | 347 | none | Pin Adventure + Casual | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 23 | Arcade + Colorful4 of 55 launches earned $100k+ | 4 of 554 hits | $2,364 | $61,276 | 55 | none | Pin Arcade + Colorful | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 24 | Casual + Strategy1 in 13 earned $100k+, from 188 launches | 1 in 1314 hits | $2,279 | $58,622 | 188 | none | Pin Casual + Strategy | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 25 | Cute + Strategy1 in 13 earned $100k+, from 66 launches | 1 in 135 hits | $4,312 | $87,147 | 66 | none | Pin Cute + Strategy | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Under 30 launches or 5 hits a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices. A game counts in every pair its tags make.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.