Genres

Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.

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on 30 Sep 2026

Genres 1 Oct

Of 263 genres with 30+ launches at any price, Without the breakout, 149 beat the 1 in 16 base rate. Price moves the odds most: 1 in 192 under $5, 42 in 100 at $20 to $40.149 of 263 genres beat the 1 in 16 base rate.149 beat the base rate.

Cohort median $606

Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.

Best niches

All prices

Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch

Capitalism + Incrementalabout 13 times expected at its prices14 in 100
1Capitalism + Incremental14 in 10050 launches2Casual + Desktop Companion28 in 10047 launches3Desktop Companion + Idler25 in 10064 launches4Desktop Companion + Relaxing30 in 10043 launches5Comedy + Memes10 in 10049 launches

Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

The Without the breakout lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Opens $10 to $20, Standard lens.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 30 in 100. 153 match.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Now: Extraction Shooter, $68,810 typical. 263 match.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Not computed for lenses yet.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 30 in 100. 109 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Now: Puzzle, 5,738 launches. 263 match.
Hide one-hit markets50 outHide small samples23 out

263 of 266 genres have 30+ launches at any price, Without the breakout. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.

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Genres at any price, Without the breakout, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#GenreChance of $100k+Typical yearTop 1 in 10LaunchesMarkersPin
All games at any price, Without the breakoutthe base rate: the row to beat 1 in 161,804 of 29,637 $606not computed 29,637
1 none of 107 launches earned $100k+ 0 in 100no hits $273 not computed 107 none Pin Spelling
2 none of 59 launches earned $100k+ 0 in 100no hits $404 not computed 59 none Pin Chess
3 none of 56 launches earned $100k+ 0 in 100no hits $364 not computed 56 none Pin 6DOF
4 none of 52 launches earned $100k+ 0 in 100no hits $809 not computed 52 Audience Pin Boxing
5 none of 49 launches earned $100k+ 0 in 100no hits $1,090 not computed 49 SmallAudience Pin Basketball
6 none of 39 launches earned $100k+ 0 in 100no hits $725 not computed 39 Small Pin Submarine
7 none of 38 launches earned $100k+ 0 in 100no hits $1,209 not computed 38 Small Pin Mini Golf
8 none of 36 launches earned $100k+ 0 in 100no hits $443 not computed 36 1-hitSmall Pin Time Attack
9 none of 33 launches earned $100k+ 0 in 100no hits $485 not computed 33 Small Pin Intentionally Awkward Controls
10 none of 32 launches earned $100k+ 0 in 100no hits $281 not computed 32 Small Pin Billiards
11 1 in 210 earned $100k+, from 210 launches 1 in 2101 hit $303 not computed 210 1-hitAudience Pin Solitaire
12 Match 31 in 142 earned $100k+, from 283 launches 1 in 1422 hits $121 not computed 283 1-hit Pin Match 3

1 in 142 earned $100k+, from 283 launches at any price, Without the breakout. That is about 0.1 times the base rate.

Base rate at any price, Without the breakout: 1 in 16 (1,804 of 29,637 launches earned $100k+).

Typical first year $121. Top 1 in 10 is not computed for lenses yet.

Lens check, all pricesOne-hit market +2. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: moves the answer. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: moves the answer.

  • 1-hitPOPUCOM holds 52% of all the money here (all prices). Read the typical figure, not the total.
  • LuckOnly 2 games reached $100k+ here, so the odds may be luck.
Chance of $100k+ at every price (Standard lens)
PriceChanceLaunchesTypical
All prices1 in 95284$121
Under $50 in 100161$41
$5 to $100 in 10085$364
$10 to $201 in 1235$607
$20 to $40too fewunder 10

Grey: under 30 launches at that price, written as a count. Odds compare best within one price.

Best tag pairs inside, at any price, Without the breakout

Open genre pageCheck this idea
13 1 in 131 earned $100k+, from 131 launches 1 in 1311 hit $161 not computed 131 none Pin Trivia
14 1 in 121 earned $100k+, from 243 launches 1 in 1212 hits $404 not computed 243 Audience Pin Sokoban
15 1 in 108 earned $100k+, from 108 launches 1 in 1081 hit $361 not computed 108 1-hitAudience Pin Traditional Roguelike
16 1 in 95 earned $100k+, from 569 launches 1 in 956 hits $121 not computed 569 1-hit Pin Runner
17 1 in 71 earned $100k+, from 1,766 launches 1 in 7125 hits $541 not computed 1,766 none Pin Hidden Object
18 1 in 69 earned $100k+, from 345 launches 1 in 695 hits $202 not computed 345 none Pin 3D Fighter
19 1 in 65 earned $100k+, from 65 launches 1 in 651 hit $607 not computed 65 none Pin Snow
20 1 in 63 earned $100k+, from 947 launches 1 in 6315 hits $303 not computed 947 none Pin Precision Platformer
21 1 in 63 earned $100k+, from 629 launches 1 in 6310 hits $202 not computed 629 none Pin Score Attack
22 1 in 58 earned $100k+, from 292 launches 1 in 585 hits $242 not computed 292 none Pin Aliens
23 1 in 54 earned $100k+, from 542 launches 1 in 5410 hits $252 not computed 542 Audience Pin Arena Shooter
24 1 in 54 earned $100k+, from 54 launches 1 in 541 hit $707 not computed 54 1-hitAudience Pin Golf
25 1 in 49 earned $100k+, from 196 launches 1 in 494 hits $405 not computed 196 none Pin Combat Racing
Show 25 moreShowing 25 of 263 genres
green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.

Releases

Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.