Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 12 to 36 months old, data 3 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.

Best niches

All prices

Pairs with the best chance of $100k+, above the base rateFree until launch

Base Building + Multiplayerabout 2.3 times expected at its prices, could be luck44 in 100

1Base Building + Multiplayer44 in 10045 launches 2Crafting + Multiplayer44 in 10048 launches 3Online Co-Op + Roguelike43 in 10040 launches 4Base Building + Open World Survival Craft39 in 10054 launches 5Character Customization + Open World39 in 10062 launches

Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: holds.

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 17 hit $100k+Under $51 in 219 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 30 hit $100k+$10 to $2018 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4040 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,280 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Without the breakout

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Drops the single biggest earner. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money. Lenses are computed across all prices only so far, so a lens reads All prices.

Sample 30+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 Without the breakout 30+ launches Reset

The Without the breakout lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Opens $10 to $20, Standard lens.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Now: Desktop Companion, 37 in 100. 73 match.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Now: Desktop Companion, $32,516 typical. 255 match.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Not computed for lenses yet.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 30 in 100. 97 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Now: Puzzle, 5,256 launches. 255 match.

Hide one-hit markets47 out Hide small samples22 out

255 of 256 genres have 30+ launches at any price, Without the breakout. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.

Asynchronous Multiplayer 4 of 40 earned $100k+ at any price, Without the breakouttypical $626 Small

Artificial Intelligence 1 in 30 earned $100k+, from 209 launches at any price, Without the breakouttypical $285 none

Robots 1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 234 launches at any price, Without the breakouttypical $370. Best of the pins none

Genres at any price, Without the breakout, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#	Genre	Chance of $100k+	Typical year	Top 1 in 10	Launches	Markers	Pin
	All games at any price, Without the breakoutthe base rate: the row to beat	1 in 171,546 of 26,280	$540	not computed	26,280
1	Solitairenone of 200 launches earned $100k+	0 of 200no hits	$284	not computed	200	1-hit	Pin Solitaire
2	Spellingnone of 96 launches earned $100k+	0 of 96no hits	$235	not computed	96	none	Pin Spelling
3	6DOFnone of 67 launches earned $100k+	0 of 67no hits	$213	not computed	67	none	Pin 6DOF
4	Assassinsnone of 57 launches earned $100k+	0 of 57no hits	$229	not computed	57	1-hit	Pin Assassins
5	Chessnone of 49 launches earned $100k+	0 of 49no hits	$354	not computed	49	Small	Pin Chess
6	Basketballnone of 39 launches earned $100k+	0 of 39no hits	$1,410	not computed	39	Small	Pin Basketball
7	Submarinenone of 37 launches earned $100k+	0 of 37no hits	$675	not computed	37	Small	Pin Submarine
8	Mini Golfnone of 33 launches earned $100k+	0 of 33no hits	$722	not computed	33	1-hitSmall	Pin Mini Golf
9	Intentionally Awkward Controlsnone of 31 launches earned $100k+	0 of 31no hits	$376	not computed	31	Small	Pin Intentionally Awkward Controls
10	Match 31 of 297 launches earned $100k+	1 of 2971 hit	$118	not computed	297	1-hit	Pin Match 3
11	Sokoban1 of 236 launches earned $100k+	1 of 2361 hit	$383	not computed	236	none	Pin Sokoban
12	Trivia1 of 115 launches earned $100k+	1 of 1151 hit	$113	not computed	115	Audience	Pin Trivia
13	Bullet Time1 of 95 launches earned $100k+	1 of 951 hit	$383	not computed	95	none	Pin Bullet Time
14	Score Attack1 in 94 earned $100k+, from 561 launches	1 in 946 hits	$212	not computed	561	none	Pin Score Attack
15	Aliens3 of 268 launches earned $100k+	3 of 2683 hits	$253	not computed	268	none	Pin Aliens
16	Time Manipulation1 of 89 launches earned $100k+	1 of 891 hit	$751	not computed	89	none	Pin Time Manipulation
17	Runner1 in 89 earned $100k+, from 532 launches	1 in 896 hits	$100	not computed	532	none	Pin Runner
18	Hidden Object1 in 86 earned $100k+, from 1,625 launches	1 in 8619 hits	$535	not computed	1,625	none	Pin Hidden Object
19	Precision Platformer1 in 80 earned $100k+, from 881 launches	1 in 8011 hits	$236	not computed	881	Audience	Pin Precision Platformer
20	3D Fighter1 in 63 earned $100k+, from 315 launches	1 in 635 hits	$157	not computed	315	none	Pin 3D Fighter
21	Combat Racing3 of 175 launches earned $100k+	3 of 1753 hits	$383	not computed	175	none	Pin Combat Racing
22	Archery1 of 56 launches earned $100k+	1 of 561 hit	$424	not computed	56	1-hit	Pin Archery
23	Boxing1 of 54 launches earned $100k+	1 of 541 hit	$626	not computed	54	1-hit	Pin Boxing
24	Incremental1 in 51 earned $100k+, from 1,069 launches	1 in 5121 hits	$284	not computed	1,069	none	Pin Incremental
25	Golf1 of 50 launches earned $100k+	1 of 501 hit	$794	not computed	50	1-hit	Pin Golf

Show 25 moreShowing 25 of 255 genres

green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches or 5 hits a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.