Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 12 to 36 months old, data 3 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer. The revenue estimate is soft: about 6 to 7.5 in 100 launches overall.

Best niches

All prices

Pairs with the best chance of $100k+, above the base rateFree until launch

Building + Multiplayerabout 2.3 times expected at its prices, could be luck46 in 100

1Building + Multiplayer46 in 10048 launches 2Base Building + Multiplayer46 in 10046 launches 3Online Co-Op + Roguelike45 in 10040 launches 4Cozy + Farming Sim45 in 10040 launches 5Crafting + Multiplayer45 in 10049 launches

Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 238 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2020 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,291 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Without the breakout

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Drops the single biggest earner. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money. Lenses are computed across all prices only so far, so a lens reads All prices.

Sample 30+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 Without the breakout 30+ launches Reset

The Without the breakout lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Opens $10 to $20, Standard lens.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Now: Desktop Companion, 40 in 100. 75 match.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Now: Open World Survival Craft, $24,935 typical. 255 match.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Not computed for lenses yet.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 31 in 100. 99 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Now: Puzzle, 5,255 launches. 255 match.

Hide one-hit markets46 out Hide small samples23 out

255 of 256 genres have 30+ launches at any price, Without the breakout. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.

Programming 1 in 13 earned $100k+, from 90 launches at any price, Without the breakout$10k+ not computed yet none

Outbreak Sim 3 of 50 earned $100k+ at any price, Without the breakout$10k+ not computed yet none

VR 1 in 17 earned $100k+, from 589 launches at any price, Without the breakouttypical $759 none

Genres at any price, Without the breakout, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#	Genre	Chance of $100k+	Typical year	Top 1 in 10	Launches	Markers	Pin
	All games at any price, Without the breakoutthe base rate: the row to beat	1 in 151,722 of 26,291	$552	not computed	26,291
1	Solitairenone of 199 launches earned $100k+	0 of 199no hits	$292	not computed	199	1-hit	Pin Solitaire
2	Spellingnone of 96 launches earned $100k+	0 of 96no hits	under 100	under 100	96	none	Pin Spelling
3	6DOFnone of 67 launches earned $100k+	0 of 67no hits	under 100	under 100	67	none	Pin 6DOF
4	Chessnone of 49 launches earned $100k+	0 of 49no hits	under 100	under 100	49	Small	Pin Chess
5	Basketballnone of 39 launches earned $100k+	0 of 39no hits	under 100	under 100	39	Small	Pin Basketball
6	Submarinenone of 37 launches earned $100k+	0 of 37no hits	under 100	under 100	37	Small	Pin Submarine
7	Mini Golfnone of 32 launches earned $100k+	0 of 32no hits	under 100	under 100	32	1-hitSmall	Pin Mini Golf
8	Intentionally Awkward Controlsnone of 31 launches earned $100k+	0 of 31no hits	under 100	under 100	31	Small	Pin Intentionally Awkward Controls
9	Sokoban1 of 236 launches earned $100k+	1 of 2361 hit	$390	not computed	236	none	Pin Sokoban
10	Trivia1 of 115 launches earned $100k+	1 of 1151 hit	$106	not computed	115	Audience	Pin Trivia
11	Match 33 of 297 launches earned $100k+	3 of 2973 hits	$125	not computed	297	1-hit	Pin Match 3
12	Bullet Time1 of 95 launches earned $100k+	1 of 951 hit	under 100	under 100	95	none	Pin Bullet Time
13	Runner1 in 89 earned $100k+, from 533 launches	1 in 896 hits	$94	not computed	533	none	Pin Runner
14	Score Attack1 in 70 earned $100k+, from 561 launches	1 in 708 hits	$207	not computed	561	none	Pin Score Attack
15	Hidden Object1 in 68 earned $100k+, from 1,624 launches	1 in 6824 hits	$536	not computed	1,624	none	Pin Hidden Object
16	3D Fighter1 in 63 earned $100k+, from 315 launches	1 in 635 hits	$158	not computed	315	none	Pin 3D Fighter
17	Assassins1 of 57 launches earned $100k+	1 of 571 hit	under 100	under 100	57	1-hit	Pin Assassins
18	Archery1 of 56 launches earned $100k+	1 of 561 hit	under 100	under 100	56	none	Pin Archery
19	Precision Platformer1 in 55 earned $100k+, from 879 launches	1 in 5516 hits	$234	not computed	879	Audience	Pin Precision Platformer
20	Golf1 of 49 launches earned $100k+	1 of 491 hit	under 100	under 100	49	1-hitSmall	Pin Golf
21	Incremental1 in 49 earned $100k+, from 1,069 launches	1 in 4922 hits	$268	not computed	1,069	none	Pin Incremental
22	Quick-Time Events2 of 92 launches earned $100k+	2 of 922 hits	under 100	under 100	92	none	Pin Quick-Time Events
23	Aliens1 in 45 earned $100k+, from 268 launches	1 in 456 hits	$253	not computed	268	none	Pin Aliens
24	Jump Scare1 of 44 launches earned $100k+	1 of 441 hit	under 100	under 100	44	1-hitSmall	Pin Jump Scare
25	Party Game3 of 131 launches earned $100k+	3 of 1313 hits	$1,001	not computed	131	none	Pin Party Game

Show 25 moreShowing 25 of 255 genres

green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches or 5 hits a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.