Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 12 to 36 months old, data 3 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.

Best niches

All prices

Pairs with the best chance of $100k+, above the base rateFree until launch

Base Building + Multiplayerabout 2.3 times expected at its prices, could be luck44 in 100

1Base Building + Multiplayer44 in 10045 launches 2Crafting + Multiplayer44 in 10048 launches 3Online Co-Op + Roguelike43 in 10040 launches 4Base Building + Open World Survival Craft39 in 10054 launches 5Character Customization + Open World39 in 10062 launches

Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: holds.

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 17 hit $100k+Under $51 in 219 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 30 hit $100k+$10 to $2018 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4040 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,280 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens West-facing view

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Games mostly reviewed outside China: drops games with 35% or more of their reviews in Chinese. That share is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; for smaller games it is guessed from the game's name. Lenses are computed across all prices only so far, so a lens reads All prices.

Sample 30+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 West-facing view 30+ launches Reset

The West-facing view lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Opens $10 to $20, Standard lens.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Now: Colony Sim, 20 in 100. 72 match.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Now: Shop Keeper, $20,791 typical. 253 match.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Not computed for lenses yet.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 31 in 100. 95 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Now: Puzzle, 5,057 launches. 253 match.

Hide one-hit markets47 out Hide small samples21 out

253 of 256 genres have 30+ launches at any price, West-facing view. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.

Parody 1 in 18 earned $100k+, from 129 launches at any price, West-facing viewtypical $373. Best of the pins none

Logic 1 in 54 earned $100k+, from 870 launches at any price, West-facing viewtypical $340 Audience

Incremental 1 in 49 earned $100k+, from 977 launches at any price, West-facing viewtypical $286 none

Genres at any price, West-facing view, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#	Genre	Chance of $100k+	Typical year	Top 1 in 10	Launches	Markers	Pin
	All games at any price, West-facing viewthe base rate: the row to beat	1 in 171,546 of 26,280	$540	not computed	26,280
1	6DOFnone of 67 launches earned $100k+	0 of 67no hits	$213	not computed	67	none	Pin 6DOF
2	Chessnone of 50 launches earned $100k+	0 of 50no hits	$383	not computed	50	none	Pin Chess
3	Basketballnone of 38 launches earned $100k+	0 of 38no hits	$1,688	not computed	38	Small	Pin Basketball
4	Intentionally Awkward Controlsnone of 31 launches earned $100k+	0 of 31no hits	$376	not computed	31	Small	Pin Intentionally Awkward Controls
5	Match 31 of 278 launches earned $100k+	1 of 2781 hit	$141	not computed	278	1-hit	Pin Match 3
6	Solitaire1 of 186 launches earned $100k+	1 of 1861 hit	$313	not computed	186	1-hit	Pin Solitaire
7	Sokoban2 of 228 launches earned $100k+	2 of 2282 hits	$421	not computed	228	none	Pin Sokoban
8	Spelling1 of 90 launches earned $100k+	1 of 901 hit	$249	not computed	90	none	Pin Spelling
9	Precision Platformer1 in 87 earned $100k+, from 869 launches	1 in 8710 hits	$239	not computed	869	Audience	Pin Precision Platformer
10	Hidden Object1 in 83 earned $100k+, from 1,584 launches	1 in 8319 hits	$548	not computed	1,584	none	Pin Hidden Object
11	Score Attack1 in 79 earned $100k+, from 554 launches	1 in 797 hits	$213	not computed	554	none	Pin Score Attack
12	Runner1 in 73 earned $100k+, from 513 launches	1 in 737 hits	$101	not computed	513	none	Pin Runner
13	Aliens4 of 262 launches earned $100k+	4 of 2624 hits	$264	not computed	262	none	Pin Aliens
14	3D Fighter1 in 61 earned $100k+, from 303 launches	1 in 615 hits	$157	not computed	303	none	Pin 3D Fighter
15	Assassins1 of 57 launches earned $100k+	1 of 571 hit	$230	not computed	57	1-hit	Pin Assassins
16	Logic1 in 54 earned $100k+, from 870 launches	1 in 5416 hits	$340	not computed	870	Audience	Pinned Logic
17	Trivia2 of 105 launches earned $100k+	2 of 1052 hits	$155	not computed	105	Audience	Pin Trivia
18	Puzzle Platformer1 in 49 earned $100k+, from 1,085 launches	1 in 4922 hits	$226	not computed	1,085	Audience	Pin Puzzle Platformer
19	Incremental1 in 49 earned $100k+, from 977 launches	1 in 4920 hits	$286	not computed	977	none	Pinned Incremental
20	Shoot 'Em Up1 in 49 earned $100k+, from 874 launches	1 in 4918 hits	$283	not computed	874	Audience	Pin Shoot 'Em Up
21	Bullet Time2 of 93 launches earned $100k+	2 of 932 hits	$401	not computed	93	none	Pin Bullet Time
22	Arcade1 in 44 earned $100k+, from 3,558 launches	1 in 4480 hits	$230	not computed	3,558	none	Pin Arcade
23	Time Manipulation2 of 87 launches earned $100k+	2 of 872 hits	$807	not computed	87	none	Pin Time Manipulation
24	Arena Shooter1 in 43 earned $100k+, from 515 launches	1 in 4312 hits	$269	not computed	515	Audience	Pin Arena Shooter
25	Combat Racing4 of 170 launches earned $100k+	4 of 1704 hits	$403	not computed	170	none	Pin Combat Racing

Show 25 moreShowing 25 of 253 genres

green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches or 5 hits a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.