Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 12 to 36 months old, data 3 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer. The revenue estimate is soft: about 6 to 7.5 in 100 launches overall.

Best niches

All prices

Pairs with the best chance of $100k+, above the base rateFree until launch

Building + Multiplayerabout 2.3 times expected at its prices, could be luck46 in 100

1Building + Multiplayer46 in 10048 launches 2Base Building + Multiplayer46 in 10046 launches 3Online Co-Op + Roguelike45 in 10040 launches 4Cozy + Farming Sim45 in 10040 launches 5Crafting + Multiplayer45 in 10049 launches

Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 238 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2020 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,291 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Without the breakout

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Drops the single biggest earner. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money. Lenses are computed across all prices only so far, so a lens reads All prices.

Sample 30+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 Without the breakout 30+ launches Reset

The Without the breakout lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Opens $10 to $20, Standard lens.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Now: Desktop Companion, 40 in 100. 75 match.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Now: Open World Survival Craft, $24,935 typical. 255 match.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Not computed for lenses yet.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 31 in 100. 99 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Now: Puzzle, 5,255 launches. 255 match.

Hide one-hit markets46 out Hide small samples23 out

255 of 256 genres have 30+ launches at any price, Without the breakout. Sorted by chance of $100k+, highest first.

Parody 1 in 21 earned $100k+, from 128 launches at any price, Without the breakouttypical $371 none

Programming 1 in 13 earned $100k+, from 90 launches at any price, Without the breakout$10k+ not computed yet none

Robots 1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 233 launches at any price, Without the breakouttypical $345 none

Genres at any price, Without the breakout, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#	Genre	Chance of $100k+	Typical year	Top 1 in 10	Launches	Markers	Pin
	All games at any price, Without the breakoutthe base rate: the row to beat	1 in 151,722 of 26,291	$552	not computed	26,291
1	Desktop Companion40 in 100 earned $100k+, from 30 launches	40 in 10012 hits	under 100	under 100	30	Small	Pin Desktop Companion
2	Shop Keeper33 in 100 earned $100k+, from 70 launches	33 in 10023 hits	under 100	under 100	70	1-hit	Pin Shop Keeper
3	Open World Survival Craft31 in 100 earned $100k+, from 109 launches	31 in 10034 hits	$24,935	not computed	109	1-hit	Pin Open World Survival Craft
4	Base Building23 in 100 earned $100k+, from 583 launches	23 in 100133 hits	$3,582	not computed	583	none	Pin Base Building
5	Colony Sim22 in 100 earned $100k+, from 218 launches	22 in 10047 hits	$3,380	not computed	218	none	Pin Colony Sim
6	FMV21 in 100 earned $100k+, from 147 launches	21 in 10031 hits	$10,634	not computed	147	Audience	Pin FMV
7	Online Co-Op21 in 100 earned $100k+, from 646 launches	21 in 100135 hits	$5,204	not computed	646	none	Pin Online Co-Op
8	Building20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 845 launches	20 in 100168 hits	$2,528	not computed	845	none	Pin Building
9	Co-op19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 677 launches	19 in 100129 hits	$3,909	not computed	677	none	Pin Co-op
10	Open World19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 861 launches	19 in 100161 hits	$2,044	not computed	861	none	Pin Open World
11	Economy18 in 100 earned $100k+, from 477 launches	18 in 10087 hits	$4,361	not computed	477	none	Pin Economy
12	Management18 in 100 earned $100k+, from 1,005 launches	18 in 100181 hits	$3,980	not computed	1,005	none	Pin Management
13	Crafting18 in 100 earned $100k+, from 644 launches	18 in 100115 hits	$2,393	not computed	644	none	Pin Crafting
14	Mechs18 in 100 earned $100k+, from 101 launches	18 in 10018 hits	$4,084	not computed	101	none	Pin Mechs
15	Trains18 in 100 earned $100k+, from 73 launches	18 in 10013 hits	under 100	under 100	73	none	Pin Trains
16	City Builder18 in 100 earned $100k+, from 506 launches	18 in 10090 hits	$1,916	not computed	506	Audience	Pin City Builder
17	Roguelike Deckbuilder17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 229 launches	17 in 10040 hits	$9,015	not computed	229	none	Pin Roguelike Deckbuilder
18	Cozy17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 490 launches	17 in 10084 hits	$2,465	not computed	490	Audience	Pin Cozy
19	Trading17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 124 launches	17 in 10021 hits	$7,163	not computed	124	none	Pin Trading
20	Sandbox17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 1,219 launches	17 in 100205 hits	$1,992	not computed	1,219	none	Pin Sandbox
21	Dice17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 30 launches	17 in 1005 hits	under 100	under 100	30	Small	Pin Dice
22	Automation16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 297 launches	16 in 10049 hits	$2,478	not computed	297	1-hit	Pin Automation
23	4X16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 81 launches	16 in 10013 hits	under 100	under 100	81	none	Pin 4X
24	Resource Management16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 561 launches	16 in 10089 hits	$2,172	not computed	561	none	Pin Resource Management
25	Metroidvania16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 367 launches	16 in 10057 hits	$2,928	not computed	367	1-hitAudience	Pin Metroidvania

Show 25 moreShowing 25 of 255 genres

green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches or 5 hits a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.