Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 12 to 36 months old, data 3 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer. The revenue estimate is soft: about 6 to 7.5 in 100 launches overall.

Best niches

All prices

Pairs with the best chance of $100k+, above the base rateFree until launch

Building + Multiplayerabout 2.3 times expected at its prices, could be luck46 in 100

1Building + Multiplayer46 in 10048 launches 2Base Building + Multiplayer46 in 10046 launches 3Cozy + Farming Sim45 in 10040 launches 4Online Co-Op + Roguelike45 in 10040 launches 5Crafting + Multiplayer45 in 10049 launches

Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 238 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2020 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,291 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Last 18 months

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Only launches from the last 18 months. Lenses are computed across all prices only so far, so a lens reads All prices.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 Last 18 months Reset

The Last 18 months lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Opens $10 to $20, Standard lens.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Now: Mechs, 23 in 100. 74 match.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Now: Open World Survival Craft, $49,037 typical. 187 match.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Not computed for lenses yet.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: Base Building, 25 in 100. 68 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Now: Puzzle, 1,493 launches. 187 match.

Hide one-hit markets41 out Hide small samples93 out

245 of 256 genres have 10+ launches at any price, Last 18 months. Sorted by chance of $100k+, highest first.

Outbreak Sim 1 of 18 earned $100k+ at any price, Last 18 monthstypical $178 Small

Programming 5 of 24 earned $100k+ at any price, Last 18 monthstypical $8,920 Small

heistNot in this view: under 10 launches at any price, Last 18 months.

Genres at any price, Last 18 months, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#	Genre	Chance of $100k+	Typical year	Top 1 in 10	Launches	Markers	Pin
	All games at any price, Last 18 monthsthe base rate: the row to beat	1 in 151,722 of 26,291	$552	not computed	26,291
1	Shop Keeper39 in 100 earned $100k+, from 33 launches	39 in 10013 hits	$20,162	not computed	33	1-hitSmall	Pin Shop Keeper
2	Open World Survival Craft33 in 100 earned $100k+, from 30 launches	33 in 10010 hits	$49,037	not computed	30	1-hitSmall	Pin Open World Survival Craft
3	Desktop Companion6 of 18 launches earned $100k+	6 of 186 hits	$31,163	not computed	18	Small	Pin Desktop Companion
4	Naval4 of 13 launches earned $100k+	4 of 134 hits	$11,753	not computed	13	Small	Pin Naval
5	Tanks4 of 14 launches earned $100k+	4 of 144 hits	$804	not computed	14	Small	Pin Tanks
6	World War II7 of 26 launches earned $100k+	7 of 267 hits	$6,316	not computed	26	Small	Pin World War II
7	FMV27 in 100 earned $100k+, from 60 launches	27 in 10016 hits	$25,731	not computed	60	Audience	Pin FMV
8	Base Building25 in 100 earned $100k+, from 157 launches	25 in 10040 hits	$6,067	not computed	157	none	Pin Base Building
9	Massively Multiplayer4 of 17 launches earned $100k+	4 of 174 hits	$804	not computed	17	Small	Pin Massively Multiplayer
10	Mechs23 in 100 earned $100k+, from 31 launches	23 in 1007 hits	$4,865	not computed	31	Small	Pin Mechs
11	Music22 in 100 earned $100k+, from 36 launches	22 in 1008 hits	$1,992	not computed	36	Small	Pin Music
12	Building22 in 100 earned $100k+, from 242 launches	22 in 10053 hits	$5,056	not computed	242	none	Pin Building
13	Horses3 of 14 launches earned $100k+	3 of 143 hits	$9,481	not computed	14	Small	Pin Horses
14	Cozy21 in 100 earned $100k+, from 194 launches	21 in 10041 hits	$3,132	not computed	194	Audience	Pin Cozy
15	Colony Sim21 in 100 earned $100k+, from 62 launches	21 in 10013 hits	$3,321	not computed	62	none	Pin Colony Sim
16	Programming5 of 24 launches earned $100k+	5 of 245 hits	$8,920	not computed	24	Small	Pinned Programming
17	Minigames6 of 29 launches earned $100k+	6 of 296 hits	$982	not computed	29	Small	Pin Minigames
18	Vehicular Combat21 in 100 earned $100k+, from 34 launches	21 in 1007 hits	$1,264	not computed	34	Small	Pin Vehicular Combat
19	Online Co-Op21 in 100 earned $100k+, from 180 launches	21 in 10037 hits	$6,168	not computed	180	none	Pin Online Co-Op
20	Co-op20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 205 launches	20 in 10042 hits	$4,570	not computed	205	none	Pin Co-op
21	City Builder20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 128 launches	20 in 10026 hits	$4,213	not computed	128	Audience	Pin City Builder
22	Trains4 of 20 launches earned $100k+	4 of 204 hits	$25,093	not computed	20	Small	Pin Trains
23	Naval Combat2 of 10 launches earned $100k+	2 of 102 hits	$570	not computed	10	Small	Pin Naval Combat
24	Trading20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 51 launches	20 in 10010 hits	$5,688	not computed	51	none	Pin Trading
25	Transportation4 of 21 launches earned $100k+	4 of 214 hits	$6,067	not computed	21	Small	Pin Transportation

Show 25 moreShowing 25 of 245 genres

green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches or 5 hits a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.