Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 12 to 36 months old, data 3 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer. The revenue estimate is soft: about 6 to 7.5 in 100 launches overall.

Best niches

All prices

Pairs with the best chance of $100k+, above the base rateFree until launch

Building + Multiplayerabout 2.3 times expected at its prices, could be luck46 in 100

1Building + Multiplayer46 in 10048 launches 2Base Building + Multiplayer46 in 10046 launches 3Online Co-Op + Roguelike45 in 10040 launches 4Cozy + Farming Sim45 in 10040 launches 5Crafting + Multiplayer45 in 10049 launches

Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 238 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2020 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,291 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens West-facing view

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Games mostly reviewed outside China: drops games with 35% or more of their reviews in Chinese. That share is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; for smaller games it is guessed from the game's name. Lenses are computed across all prices only so far, so a lens reads All prices.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 West-facing view Reset

The West-facing view lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Opens $10 to $20, Standard lens.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Now: Colony Sim, 22 in 100. 74 match.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Now: Open World Survival Craft, $25,124 typical. 253 match.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Not computed for lenses yet.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 32 in 100. 97 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Now: Puzzle, 5,055 launches. 253 match.

Hide one-hit markets47 out Hide small samples24 out

256 of 256 genres have 10+ launches at any price, West-facing view. Sorted by chance of $100k+, highest first.

Asynchronous Multiplayer 3 of 36 earned $100k+ at any price, West-facing view$10k+ not computed yet Small

Programming 1 in 11 earned $100k+, from 91 launches at any price, West-facing view$10k+ not computed yet none

VR 1 in 16 earned $100k+, from 575 launches at any price, West-facing viewtypical $782 none

Genres at any price, West-facing view, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#	Genre	Chance of $100k+	Typical year	Top 1 in 10	Launches	Markers	Pin
	All games at any price, West-facing viewthe base rate: the row to beat	1 in 151,722 of 26,291	$552	not computed	26,291
1	Desktop Companion10 of 27 launches earned $100k+	10 of 2710 hits	under 100	under 100	27	Small	Pin Desktop Companion
2	Shop Keeper33 in 100 earned $100k+, from 69 launches	33 in 10023 hits	under 100	under 100	69	1-hit	Pin Shop Keeper
3	Open World Survival Craft32 in 100 earned $100k+, from 109 launches	32 in 10035 hits	$25,124	not computed	109	1-hit	Pin Open World Survival Craft
4	Base Building23 in 100 earned $100k+, from 555 launches	23 in 100128 hits	$3,718	not computed	555	none	Pin Base Building
5	Colony Sim22 in 100 earned $100k+, from 217 launches	22 in 10048 hits	$3,380	not computed	217	none	Pin Colony Sim
6	MMORPG6 of 29 launches earned $100k+	6 of 296 hits	under 100	under 100	29	1-hitSmall	Pin MMORPG
7	Online Co-Op21 in 100 earned $100k+, from 626 launches	21 in 100129 hits	$5,179	not computed	626	none	Pin Online Co-Op
8	Building20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 819 launches	20 in 100165 hits	$2,704	not computed	819	none	Pin Building
9	Dice19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 31 launches	19 in 1006 hits	under 100	under 100	31	Small	Pin Dice
10	Co-op19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 659 launches	19 in 100127 hits	$4,089	not computed	659	none	Pin Co-op
11	Trains19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 73 launches	19 in 10014 hits	under 100	under 100	73	none	Pin Trains
12	Trading19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 115 launches	19 in 10022 hits	$7,374	not computed	115	none	Pin Trading
13	Open World19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 820 launches	19 in 100155 hits	$2,107	not computed	820	none	Pin Open World
14	City Builder19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 477 launches	19 in 10089 hits	$2,188	not computed	477	Audience	Pin City Builder
15	Mechs19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 97 launches	19 in 10018 hits	under 100	under 100	97	none	Pin Mechs
16	Economy19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 469 launches	19 in 10087 hits	$4,865	not computed	469	none	Pin Economy
17	Crafting18 in 100 earned $100k+, from 624 launches	18 in 100114 hits	$2,621	not computed	624	none	Pin Crafting
18	Management18 in 100 earned $100k+, from 974 launches	18 in 100174 hits	$4,018	not computed	974	none	Pin Management
19	4X18 in 100 earned $100k+, from 74 launches	18 in 10013 hits	under 100	under 100	74	none	Pin 4X
20	FMV17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 106 launches	17 in 10018 hits	$5,519	not computed	106	Audience	Pin FMV
21	Roguelike Deckbuilder17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 218 launches	17 in 10037 hits	$9,059	not computed	218	none	Pin Roguelike Deckbuilder
22	Automation17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 285 launches	17 in 10048 hits	$2,760	not computed	285	1-hit	Pin Automation
23	Cozy17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 484 launches	17 in 10081 hits	$2,345	not computed	484	Audience	Pin Cozy
24	Naval17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 42 launches	17 in 1007 hits	under 100	under 100	42	Small	Pin Naval
25	Sandbox17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 1,173 launches	17 in 100194 hits	$2,070	not computed	1,173	none	Pin Sandbox

Show 25 moreShowing 25 of 256 genres

green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches or 5 hits a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.