Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 12 to 36 months old, data 3 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.

Best niches

All prices

Pairs with the best chance of $100k+, above the base rateFree until launch

Base Building + Multiplayerabout 2.3 times expected at its prices, could be luck44 in 100

1Base Building + Multiplayer44 in 10045 launches 2Crafting + Multiplayer44 in 10048 launches 3Online Co-Op + Roguelike43 in 10040 launches 4Base Building + Open World Survival Craft39 in 10054 launches 5Character Customization + Open World39 in 10062 launches

Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: holds.

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 17 hit $100k+Under $51 in 219 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 30 hit $100k+$10 to $2018 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4040 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,280 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens West-facing view

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Games mostly reviewed outside China: drops games with 35% or more of their reviews in Chinese. That share is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; for smaller games it is guessed from the game's name. Lenses are computed across all prices only so far, so a lens reads All prices.

Sample 30+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 West-facing view 30+ launches Reset

The West-facing view lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Opens $10 to $20, Standard lens.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Now: Colony Sim, 20 in 100. 72 match.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Now: Shop Keeper, $20,791 typical. 253 match.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Not computed for lenses yet.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 31 in 100. 95 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Now: Puzzle, 5,057 launches. 253 match.

Hide one-hit markets47 out Hide small samples21 out

253 of 256 genres have 30+ launches at any price, West-facing view. Sorted by chance of $100k+, highest first.

Programming 1 in 18 earned $100k+, from 91 launches at any price, West-facing viewtypical $1,222 none

Asynchronous Multiplayer 3 of 36 earned $100k+ at any price, West-facing viewtypical $1,011 Small

Text-Based 1 in 37 earned $100k+, from 549 launches at any price, West-facing viewtypical $737 none

Genres at any price, West-facing view, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#	Genre	Chance of $100k+	Typical year	Top 1 in 10	Launches	Markers	Pin
	All games at any price, West-facing viewthe base rate: the row to beat	1 in 171,546 of 26,280	$540	not computed	26,280
1	Open World Survival Craft31 in 100 earned $100k+, from 108 launches	31 in 10033 hits	$18,843	not computed	108	1-hit	Pin Open World Survival Craft
2	Shop Keeper28 in 100 earned $100k+, from 69 launches	28 in 10019 hits	$20,791	not computed	69	1-hit	Pin Shop Keeper
3	Base Building21 in 100 earned $100k+, from 554 launches	21 in 100119 hits	$3,119	not computed	554	none	Pin Base Building
4	Colony Sim20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 217 launches	20 in 10044 hits	$2,870	not computed	217	none	Pin Colony Sim
5	Online Co-Op19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 626 launches	19 in 100119 hits	$4,860	not computed	626	none	Pin Online Co-Op
6	Building19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 817 launches	19 in 100153 hits	$2,486	not computed	817	none	Pin Building
7	Trading18 in 100 earned $100k+, from 115 launches	18 in 10021 hits	$6,509	not computed	115	none	Pin Trading
8	Co-op18 in 100 earned $100k+, from 658 launches	18 in 100118 hits	$3,712	not computed	658	none	Pin Co-op
9	Open World18 in 100 earned $100k+, from 819 launches	18 in 100146 hits	$1,914	not computed	819	none	Pin Open World
10	Trains18 in 100 earned $100k+, from 74 launches	18 in 10013 hits	$8,109	not computed	74	none	Pin Trains
11	Mechs18 in 100 earned $100k+, from 97 launches	18 in 10017 hits	$3,791	not computed	97	none	Pin Mechs
12	City Builder17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 477 launches	17 in 10083 hits	$1,986	not computed	477	none	Pin City Builder
13	Crafting17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 623 launches	17 in 100104 hits	$2,192	not computed	623	none	Pin Crafting
14	Economy17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 469 launches	17 in 10078 hits	$4,046	not computed	469	none	Pin Economy
15	World War II16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 73 launches	16 in 10012 hits	$2,128	not computed	73	none	Pin World War II
16	Dice16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 31 launches	16 in 1005 hits	$1,530	not computed	31	Small	Pin Dice
17	Job Simulator16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 87 launches	16 in 10014 hits	$7,362	not computed	87	none	Pin Job Simulator
18	FMV16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 106 launches	16 in 10017 hits	$4,824	not computed	106	Audience	Pin FMV
19	Management16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 974 launches	16 in 100156 hits	$3,747	not computed	974	none	Pin Management
20	Sandbox15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 1,172 launches	15 in 100181 hits	$1,914	not computed	1,172	Audience	Pin Sandbox
21	Roguelike Deckbuilder15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 218 launches	15 in 10033 hits	$7,776	not computed	218	Audience	Pin Roguelike Deckbuilder
22	Cozy15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 485 launches	15 in 10071 hits	$2,301	not computed	485	Audience	Pin Cozy
23	Automation14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 285 launches	14 in 10041 hits	$2,564	not computed	285	1-hit	Pin Automation
24	Naval14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 42 launches	14 in 1006 hits	$4,051	not computed	42	Small	Pin Naval
25	Social Deduction14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 35 launches	14 in 1005 hits	$3,203	not computed	35	1-hitSmall	Pin Social Deduction

Show 25 moreShowing 25 of 253 genres

green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches or 5 hits a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.