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Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.

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on 3 Oct 2026

Niches / 2D + Surreal

Niche

2D + Surreal

Games tagged both 2D and Surreal: 117 indie paid launches, 4 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

  • A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
  • Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
  • From 26,280 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Showing 2D + Surreal priced $10 to $20, hiding samples under 30 launches. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is too small to compare with 2D and is too small to compare with Surreal; priced $10 to $20 it has too few launches to read.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

16 launches, under your minimum sample of 30.

Pick another price band, or lower the minimum sample.

2NDRunner-up
Tag onemood tag2D
13.8in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds13.8 in 100
Typical earnings$5,569
Launches960 / 132 hits
Pairno reading
--No reading
This pair2D + Surreal
--too few
to read
Odds--
Typical earnings--
Launches16

16 launches, under your minimum sample of 30.

1STWinner
Tag twomood tagSurreal
19.2in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds19.2 in 100
Typical earnings$16,695
Launches78 / 15 hits
Pairno reading
All indie launches $10 to $20: 17.6 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $8,234, from 4,301 launches.each block is 1 in 100 all indie at $10 to $202D is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 40.0 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page
All prices117 in pairUnder $566 in pair$5 to $1035 in pair$10 to $2016 in pair$20 to $40no launches
What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 16 games tagged both 2D and Surreal priced $10 to $20. 3 of 16 of them earned $100k+, against 13.7 in 100 for 2D-only games and 19.4 in 100 for Surreal-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with 2D alone and is too small to compare with Surreal alone.

Both: 16 games priced $10 to $20; 3 of 16 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $3,794.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 16 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Nubby's Number Factoryleads this pair41.5%
PairNubby's Number Factory41.5%
2DHollow Knight: Silksong39.3%
SurrealINDIKA12.6%
CheckOne game over half?no
NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 2 of 3, 1 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview
ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads 2D + Surreal

What this card holds

  • Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
  • One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
  • Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready
Same price banddata ready
Launched within a year of each otherplanned
Earned $100k+planned
The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

  • Nubby's Number Factory earned 41.5% of the estimated first-year money of the 117 2D + Surreal launches.
  • 2D is led by Hollow Knight: Silksong, with 39.3% of its money.
  • Surreal is led by INDIKA, with 12.6% of its money.
  • No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

2D + Surreal holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout; too few to tell in Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

2D + Surreal through every lens, all prices
This pairBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view108 of 117 launchesWithout the breakout116 of 117 launchesLast 18 months27 of 117 launches
Launches counted1174 hits1084 hits1163 hits271 hits
Earned $100k+4 of 117too few for a rate4 of 108too few for a rate3 of 116too few for a rate1 of 27too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings$784top tenth $12,135+$784$784$1,524
Chance against standardthe base+8.3%0.3 more in 100; too few to tell-24.4%0.8 fewer in 100+8.3%0.3 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standardthe base0.0%no change0.0%no change+94.4%$740 more; too few to tell
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsToo few to tell
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both 2D and Surreal, 12 to 36 months old: 117 launches.

Launches counted
1174 hits
Earned $100k+
4 of 117too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings
$784top tenth $12,135+
Chance against standard
the base
Typical against standard
the base
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 9 of 117 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
1084 hits
Earned $100k+
4 of 108too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings
$784
Chance against standard
+8.3%0.3 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Nubby's Number Factory (41.5% of the money): 116 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted
1163 hits
Earned $100k+
3 of 116too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings
$784
Chance against standard
-24.4%0.8 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 27 of 117.

Launches counted
271 hits
Earned $100k+
1 of 27too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings
$1,524
Chance against standard
+8.3%0.3 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard
+94.4%$740 more; too few to tell
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged both 2D and Surreal, 12 to 36 months old: 117 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 9 of 117 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Nubby's Number Factory (41.5% of the money): 116 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 27 of 117.

2D is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

2D through every lens, all prices
2DBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view7,740 of 8,238 launchesWithout the breakout8,237 of 8,238 launchesLast 18 months2,299 of 8,238 launches
Launches counted8,238239 hits7,740217 hits8,237238 hits2,29974 hits
Earned $100k+2.9 in 1001 in 342.8 in 1001 in 362.9 in 1001 in 353.2 in 1001 in 31
Typical first-year earnings$286top tenth $11,851+$303$286$285
Chance against standardthe base-3.4%0.1 fewer in 100-0.4%no change+10.9%0.3 more in 100
Typical against standardthe base+5.9%$17 more0.0%no change-0.3%$1 less
Does it hold?The base viewMoves the answerHoldsHolds
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged 2D, 12 to 36 months old: 8,238 launches.

Launches counted
8,238239 hits
Earned $100k+
2.9 in 1001 in 34
Typical first-year earnings
$286top tenth $11,851+
Chance against standard
the base
Typical against standard
the base
West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 498 of 8,238 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
7,740217 hits
Earned $100k+
2.8 in 1001 in 36
Typical first-year earnings
$303
Chance against standard
-3.4%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
+5.9%$17 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (39.3% of the money): 8,237 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted
8,237238 hits
Earned $100k+
2.9 in 1001 in 35
Typical first-year earnings
$286
Chance against standard
-0.4%no change
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,299 of 8,238.

Launches counted
2,29974 hits
Earned $100k+
3.2 in 1001 in 31
Typical first-year earnings
$285
Chance against standard
+10.9%0.3 more in 100
Typical against standard
-0.3%$1 less
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged 2D, 12 to 36 months old: 8,238 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 498 of 8,238 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (39.3% of the money): 8,237 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,299 of 8,238.

Surreal holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Surreal through every lens, all prices
SurrealBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view552 of 578 launchesWithout the breakout577 of 578 launchesLast 18 months156 of 578 launches
Launches counted57831 hits55229 hits57730 hits1566 hits
Earned $100k+5.4 in 1001 in 195.3 in 1001 in 195.2 in 1001 in 193.8 in 1001 in 26
Typical first-year earnings$1,019top tenth $36,298+$1,012$1,018$1,243
Chance against standardthe base-2.0%0.1 fewer in 100-3.1%0.2 fewer in 100-28.3%1.5 fewer in 100
Typical against standardthe base-0.7%$7 less-0.1%$1 less+22.0%$224 more
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsHolds
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Surreal, 12 to 36 months old: 578 launches.

Launches counted
57831 hits
Earned $100k+
5.4 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings
$1,019top tenth $36,298+
Chance against standard
the base
Typical against standard
the base
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 26 of 578 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
55229 hits
Earned $100k+
5.3 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings
$1,012
Chance against standard
-2.0%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-0.7%$7 less
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, INDIKA (12.6% of the money): 577 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted
57730 hits
Earned $100k+
5.2 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings
$1,018
Chance against standard
-3.1%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-0.1%$1 less
Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 156 of 578.

Launches counted
1566 hits
Earned $100k+
3.8 in 1001 in 26
Typical first-year earnings
$1,243
Chance against standard
-28.3%1.5 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
+22.0%$224 more
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged Surreal, 12 to 36 months old: 578 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 26 of 578 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, INDIKA (12.6% of the money): 577 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 156 of 578.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when 2D + Surreal moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.

Releases

Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.