Niche

Dark + Simulation

Games tagged both Dark and Simulation: 124 indie paid launches, 5 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,280 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 17 hit $100k+Under $51 in 219 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 30 hit $100k+$10 to $2018 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4040 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,280 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Without the breakout

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Drops the single biggest earner. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 Without the breakout Reset

Showing Dark + Simulation priced $10 to $20, without the breakout. Lens figures exist at all prices only, so inside a price band the page shows the standard figures. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is about level with Dark and trails Simulation; priced $10 to $20 it is too small to compare with Dark and is too small to compare with Simulation.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Dark + Simulation is too small to compare with Dark and is too small to compare with Simulation: 3 of its 11 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 21.5 in 100 for Dark and 20.9 in 100 for Simulation.

Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this band uses the standard figures. Small sample: 11 launches, 3 hits.

TIEA tie

Tag onemood tagDark

21.5in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds21.5 in 100

Typical earnings$11,698

Launches149 / 32 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairDark + Simulation

3 of 11launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds3 of 11 launches

Typical earnings$13,844

Launches11 / 3 hits

Expected17.6 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twoSimulation

20.9in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds20.9 in 100

Typical earnings$11,548

Launches876 / 183 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches $10 to $20: 17.6 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $8,234, from 4,301 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Dark is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 40.0 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices124 in pair Under $585 in pair $5 to $1026 in pair $10 to $2011 in pair$20 to $402: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 11 games tagged both Dark and Simulation priced $10 to $20. 3 of 11 of them earned $100k+, against 21.0 in 100 for Dark-only games and 20.8 in 100 for Simulation-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Dark alone and is too small to compare with Simulation alone.

Both: 11 games priced $10 to $20; 3 of 11 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $13,844.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 11 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet. The without the breakout lens is not computed for the outer parts, so this diagram uses the standard figures.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Strange Antiquitiesleads this pair28.3%

PairStrange Antiquities28.3%

DarkNo, I'm not a Human12.2%

SimulationSchedule I17.6%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 2 of 3, 1 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Dark + Simulation

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Strange Antiquities earned 28.3% of the estimated first-year money of the 124 Dark + Simulation launches.
Dark is led by No, I'm not a Human, with 12.2% of its money.
Simulation is led by Schedule I, with 17.6% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Dark + Simulation holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout; too few to tell in Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Dark + Simulation through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view120 of 124 launches	Without the breakout123 of 124 launches	Last 18 months36 of 124 launches
Launches counted	1245 hits	1204 hits	1234 hits	362 hits
Earned $100k+	4.0 in 1001 in 25	4 of 120too few for a rate	4 of 123too few for a rate	2 of 36too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings	$919top tenth $30,654+	$814	$814	$1,834
Chance against standard	the base	-17.3%0.7 fewer in 100; too few to tell	-19.3%0.8 fewer in 100	+37.8%1.5 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	-11.4%$105 less	-11.4%$105 less	+99.6%$915 more; too few to tell
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Dark and Simulation, 12 to 36 months old: 124 launches.

Launches counted: 1245 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.0 in 1001 in 25
Typical first-year earnings: $919top tenth $30,654+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 4 of 124 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1204 hits
Earned $100k+: 4 of 120too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $814
Chance against standard: -17.3%0.7 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: -11.4%$105 less

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Strange Antiquities (28.3% of the money): 123 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1234 hits
Earned $100k+: 4 of 123too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $814
Chance against standard: -19.3%0.8 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -11.4%$105 less

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 36 of 124.

Launches counted: 362 hits
Earned $100k+: 2 of 36too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $1,834
Chance against standard: +37.8%1.5 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: +99.6%$915 more; too few to tell

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Dark and Simulation, 12 to 36 months old: 124 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 4 of 124 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Strange Antiquities (28.3% of the money): 123 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 36 of 124.

Dark holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Dark through every lens, all prices
Dark	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,200 of 1,223 launches	Without the breakout1,222 of 1,223 launches	Last 18 months340 of 1,223 launches
Launches counted	1,22367 hits	1,20065 hits	1,22266 hits	34019 hits
Earned $100k+	5.5 in 1001 in 18	5.4 in 1001 in 18	5.4 in 1001 in 19	5.6 in 1001 in 18
Typical first-year earnings	$843top tenth $31,969+	$844	$843	$861
Chance against standard	the base	-1.1%0.1 fewer in 100	-1.4%0.1 fewer in 100	+2.0%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+0.1%$1 more	0.0%no change	+2.1%$18 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Dark, 12 to 36 months old: 1,223 launches.

Launches counted: 1,22367 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.5 in 1001 in 18
Typical first-year earnings: $843top tenth $31,969+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 23 of 1,223 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,20065 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.4 in 1001 in 18
Typical first-year earnings: $844
Chance against standard: -1.1%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +0.1%$1 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, No, I'm not a Human (12.2% of the money): 1,222 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1,22266 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.4 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings: $843
Chance against standard: -1.4%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 340 of 1,223.

Launches counted: 34019 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.6 in 1001 in 18
Typical first-year earnings: $861
Chance against standard: +2.0%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard: +2.1%$18 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Dark, 12 to 36 months old: 1,223 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 23 of 1,223 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, No, I'm not a Human (12.2% of the money): 1,222 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 340 of 1,223.

Simulation holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Simulation through every lens, all prices
Simulation	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view4,193 of 4,444 launches	Without the breakout4,443 of 4,444 launches	Last 18 months1,387 of 4,444 launches
Launches counted	4,444370 hits	4,193351 hits	4,443369 hits	1,387117 hits
Earned $100k+	8.3 in 1001 in 12	8.4 in 1001 in 12	8.3 in 1001 in 12	8.4 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings	$877top tenth $69,001+	$941	$876	$956
Chance against standard	the base	+0.5%no change	-0.2%no change	+1.3%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+7.3%$64 more	-0.1%$1 less	+9.0%$79 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Simulation, 12 to 36 months old: 4,444 launches.

Launches counted: 4,444370 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.3 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $877top tenth $69,001+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 251 of 4,444 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 4,193351 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.4 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $941
Chance against standard: +0.5%no change
Typical against standard: +7.3%$64 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Schedule I (17.6% of the money): 4,443 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 4,443369 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.3 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $876
Chance against standard: -0.2%no change
Typical against standard: -0.1%$1 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,387 of 4,444.

Launches counted: 1,387117 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.4 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $956
Chance against standard: +1.3%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard: +9.0%$79 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Simulation, 12 to 36 months old: 4,444 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 251 of 4,444 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Schedule I (17.6% of the money): 4,443 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,387 of 4,444.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Dark + Simulation moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.